UTJECAJ MAKROEKONOMSKIH FAKTORA NA CIJENE NEKRETNINA: DOKAZI IZ CRNE GORE

The real estate market, as one of the most volatile economic sectors, is a key research topic for many authors. Regardless the significance of this topic, no previous research has been conducted to evaluate the factors which influence the price of real estate in Montenegro. Therefore, the objective of this study is to clarify whether the trend in real estate prices in Montenegro can be explained by macroeconomic fundamentals such as GDP, the inflation rate, interest rates on mortgages, take-up of mortgages, the unemployment rate, the average net salary, the current account deficit and constructing activity and to determine which of them is the most important in explaining the price trend for this market. The applied methodology is based on the model averaging technique, which has not been used in previous research on this topic; it enables the research to focus on the relevant results despite the short time series and the large number of independent variables. The results obtained point to the fact that price trends in real estate are best described by and most closely align to GDP. Apart from GDP, net salary, the unemployment rate as well as the take-up of mortgages and their interest rates are shown to be significant as variables, which determine price trends within the real estate market.Tržište nekretnina, kao jedan od najvolatilnijih gospodarskih sektora, za mnoge je autore ključna tema istraživanja. Ipak, bez obzira na značaj ove teme, nijedno istraživanje nije provedeno da bi se ocijenili faktori koji utječu na cijenu nekretnina u Crnoj Gori. Stoga je cilj ove studije razjasniti može li se trend cijena nekretnina u Crnoj Gori objasniti makroekonomskim fundamentima kao što su BDP, stopa infl acije, kamatne stope na stambene kredite, stambeni krediti, stopa nezaposlenosti, prosjek neto plaće, defi cit tekućeg računa i građevinske aktivnosti te odrediti koja je od njih najvažnija u objašnjavanju kretanja cijena za ovo tržište. Primijenjena metodologija temelji se na model averaging tehnici koja se nije koristila u prethodnim istraživanjima na ovu temu; to omogućuje da se istraživanje usredotoči na relevantne rezultate unatoč kratkim vremenskim serijama i velikom broju neovisnih varijabli. Dobiveni rezultati ukazuju na činjenicu da kretanja cijena nekretnina najbolje opisuju i najviše se podudaraju s BDP-om. Osim BDP-a, neto plaće, stopa nezaposlenosti kao i stambeni krediti i njihove kamatne stope pokazali su se značajnim kao varijable koje određuju kretanja cijena na tržištu nekretnina

Effect of variable frequency electromagnetic field on deposit formation in installations with geothermal water in Sijarinjska spa (Serbia)

In this paper we have examined the effect of variable frequency electromagnetic field generated with a homemade device on deposit formation in installations with geothermal water from Sijarinjska Spa. The frequency alteration of the electromagnetic field in time was made by means of the sinusoidal and saw-tooth function. In laboratory conditions, with the flow of geothermal water at 0.015 l/s and temperature of 60 °C for 6 hours through a zig-zag glass pipe, a multiple decrease of total deposit has been achieved. By applying the saw-tooth and sinusoidal function, the decrease in contents of calcium and deposit has been achieved by 8 and 6 times, respectively. A device was also used on geothermal water installation in Sijarinjska Spa (Serbia), with the water flow through a 1'' diameter non-magnetic prochrome pipe at 0.15 l/s and temperature of 75 °C in a ten-day period. A significant decrease in total deposit and calcium in the deposit has also been achieved

Radon indoor survey in Montenegro

Sistematsko istraživanje radona u stalno nastanjenim stanovima u Crnoj Gori završeno je krajem 2016. godine. Mjerenja radona su rađena detektorima tragova CR-39, u trajanju dva puta po 6 mjeseci. Dobijeno je da je srednja godišnja koncentracija aktivnosti radona u stanovima u Crnoj Gori 110 Bq/m3 , a medijana 52 Bq/m3 . Prosječne godišnje koncentracije aktivnosti radona u stanovima po opštinama kreću se od 40 Bq/m3 (Budva) do 201 Bq/m3 (Nikšić). U kvadratima mreže 10 km x 10 km, koja prekriva teritoriju države, prosječne godišnje koncentracije aktivnosti radona u stanovima su u opsegu od 30 Bq/m3 do 732 Bq/m3 . Srednja godišnja koncentracija aktivnosti radona u stanovima urbanih područja (86 Bq/m3 ) znatno je manja od one u stanovima ruralnih područja (144 Bq/m3 ). Takođe, srednja godišnja koncentracija aktivnosti radona u kolektivnim stambenim zgradama (51 Bq/m3 ) više nego dvostruko je manja od one u individualnim porodičnim kućama (119 Bq/m3 ).First systematic national radon survey in 1095 dwellings in Montenegro was finished by the end of year 2016. Radon was measured with CR-39 nuclear track detectors during two consecutive six-month periods. It is obtained that the national average radon activity concentration in indoor air of homes in Montenegro is 110 Bq/m3 and median is 52 Bq/m3 . The average indoor radon concentrations in the municipalities are in range from 40 Bq/m3 (Budva municipality) to 201 Bq/m3 (Niksic municipality). The average radon concentrations are also calculated for each of 131 squares of the 10 km × 10 km grid which covers territory of Montenegro, and they are in a range from 30 Bq/m3 to 732 Bq/m3 . In rural areas, the average indoor radon concentration (144 Bq/m3 ) is much higher than the corresponding one in urban areas (86 Bq/m3 ). Also, the average radon activity concentration in the single-family detached houses (119 Bq/m3 ) are more than twice higher than in dwellings of the large apartment buildings (51 Bq/m3 )

HIPOTEZA O ADAPTIVNOSTI TRŽIŠTA: EMPIRIJSKI DOKAZ SA TRŽIŠTA AKCIJA CRNE GORE

In this paper we examined adaptive markets hypothesis (AMH) using three factors we assumed that affect weak-form of market efficiency: observation period, time horizon represented by rolling window sizes and data aggregation level. We have analyzed market value weighted index MONEX20, which is proxy from Montenegro equity market, over 2004- 2011 period. Rolling window analysis with fixed parameter in each window is employed to measure the persistence of deviations from a random walk hypothesis (RWH) over time. Actually, using rolling sample approach we checked whether short-range linear dependence is varying over time. This method was applied on the first order serial autocorrelation coefficients (AC1), as well as on runs test, since evidence on non-normality properties of MONEX20 suggests using non-parametric test. The evidence was found that all three factors impact degree of weakform Montenegro equity market efficiency which has serious consequences on profit opportunities over time on this market.U ovom radu je ispitivana hipoteza o adaptivnosti tržišta kroz analizu tri faktora za koje smo pretpostavili da imaju utjecaja na slabu formu efikasnosti tržišta: period promatranja, vremenski horizont predstavljen dužinom pokretnog prozora i razina agregiranosti podataka. Analiza je provedena na tržišno ponderiranom indeksu MONEX20 koji predstavlja proxy za crnogorsko tržište akcija u periodu od 2004-2011. godine. Metoda pokretnih prozora s fiksnim parametrima u svakom prozoru pojedinačno je primijenjena kako bi izmjerili odstupanja od hipoteze slučajnog hoda tokom vremena. Zapravo, pomoću ove analize je ispitivano variranje kratkoročne linearne ovisnosti prinosa iz prethodnog i tekućeg perioda. Metoda pokretnih prozora je primijenjena na autokorelacijski koeficijent prvog reda (AC1) i na test znakova (neparametarski test), s obzirom na to da serija podataka indeksa MONEX20 ne dolazi iz normalnog rasporeda. Analiza je dovela do zaključka da sva tri faktora utječu na razinu slabe forme efikasnosti crnogorskog tržišta akcija, što ima ozbiljne konsekvence na mogućnosti ostvarivanja profita tokom vremena na ovom tržištu