The LSST Era of Supermassive Black Hole Accretion Disk Reverberation Mapping

peer reviewedThe Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will detect an unprecedentedly large sample of actively accreting supermassive black holes with typical accretion disk (AD) sizes of a few light days. This brings us to face challenges in the reverberation mapping (RM) measurement of AD sizes in active galactic nuclei using interband continuum delays. We examine the effect of LSST cadence strategies on AD RM using our metric AGN_TimeLagMetric. It accounts for redshift, cadence, the magnitude limit, and magnitude corrections for dust extinction. Running our metric on different LSST cadence strategies, we produce an atlas of the performance estimations for LSST photometric RM measurements. We provide an upper limit on the estimated number of quasars for which the AD time lag can be computed within 0 1000 sources in each deep drilling field (DDF; (10 deg2)) in any filter, with the redshift distribution of these sources peaking at z ≍ 1. We find the LSST observation strategies with a good cadence (≲5 days) and a long cumulative season (~9 yr), as proposed for LSST DDF, are favored for the AD size measurement. We create synthetic LSST light curves for the most suitable DDF cadences and determine RM time lags to demonstrate the impact of the best cadences based on the proposed metric

Deep Learning of Quasar Lightcurves in the LSST Era

Deep learning techniques are required for the analysis of synoptic (multi-band and multi-epoch) light curves in massive data of quasars, as expected from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). In this follow-up study, we introduce an upgraded version of a conditional neural process (CNP) embedded in a multi-step approach for the analysis of large data of quasars in the LSST Active Galactic Nuclei Scientific Collaboration data challenge database. We present a case study of a stratified set of u-band light curves for 283 quasars with very low variability ∼0.03. In this sample, the CNP average mean square error is found to be ∼5% (∼0.5 mag). Interestingly, besides similar levels of variability, there are indications that individual light curves show flare-like features. According to the preliminary structure–function analysis, these occurrences may be associated with microlensing events with larger time scales of 5–10 years