Agent-Based Modeling for Efficiency Policy of Households\u27 Electricity Consumption in Bandung City

There are many argumentations that the government subsidy in electricity, for holding down the electricity fares, has encouraged extravagant use of electricity. Therefore, the Government Budget (APBN) Burden for this subsidy becomes higher than it necessary. Some experts have argued that this money can actually be used for other necessary and urgent spending such as infrastructure development. The purpose of this research is to build an agent-based model and simulation to explore the dinamic of electricity consumption in Indonesia, especially in Bandung City. Several interviews were conducted about households\u27 behaviors in consuming electricity to build the model. Then, the parameter was set based on the data collected with questionaire and secondary data source. The model was tested for its validity and sensitivity to the change in the controlled parameter. The simulation is expected to provide the government with a combination of electricity fare to various households electricity market segments to ensure an economic use of electricity. Some scenarios were run and the emergent property, the whole system electricity consumption,were observed to find out the best policy to encourage efficient use of electricity in the system

Agent based modeling of energy networks

Attempts to model any present or future power grid face a huge challenge because a power grid is a complex system, with feedback and multi-agent behaviors, integrated by generation, distribution, storage and consumption systems, using various control and automation computing systems to manage electricity flows. Our approach to modeling is to build upon an established model of the low voltage electricity network which is tested and proven, by extending it to a generalized energy model. But, in order to address the crucial issues of energy efficiency, additional processes like energy conversion and storage, and further energy carriers, such as gas, heat, etc., besides the traditional electrical one, must be considered. Therefore a more powerful model, provided with enhanced nodes or conversion points, able to deal with multidimensional flows, is being required. This article addresses the issue of modeling a local multi-carrier energy network. This problem can be considered as an extension of modeling a low voltage distribution network located at some urban or rural geographic area. But instead of using an external power flow analysis package to do the power flow calculations, as used in electric networks, in this work we integrate a multiagent algorithm to perform the task, in a concurrent way to the other simulation tasks, and not only for the electric fluid but also for a number of additional energy carriers. As the model is mainly focused in system operation, generation and load models are not developed

Agent-Based Computational Modeling And Macroeconomics

Agent-based Computational Economics (ACE) is the computational study of economic processes modeled as dynamic systems of interacting agents. This essay discusses the potential use of ACE modeling tools for the study of macroeconomic systems. Points are illustrated using an ACE model of a two-sector decentralized market economy. Related work can be accessed here: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/amulmark.htmagent-based computational economics

The ABM Template Models -- A Reformulation with Reference Implementations

This paper refines a well-known set of template models for agent-based modeling and offers new reference implementations. It also addresses issues of design, flexibility, and ease of use that are relevant to the choice of an agent-based modeling platform.

Desires, norms and constraints

This paper deals with modeling mental states of a rational agent, in particular states based on agent’s desires. It shows that the world the agent belongs to forces it to restrict its desires. More precisely, desires of a rational agent are restricted by the constraints that exist in the world and which express what is possible or necessary. Furthermore, if the agent is law-abiding, its desires are restricted by the regulations that are defined in the world and which express what is obligatory, permitted or forbidden. This paper characterizes how desires are restricted depending on the fact that the agent is law-abiding or not. This work considers the general case when the agent orders its own desires according to a preference order. The solution is based on modeling desires, regulations and constraints in an unique formal system which is a logic of conditional preferences

Agent-Based Modeling of the Prediction Markets

We propose a simple agent-based model of the political election prediction market which reflects the intrinsic feature of the prediction market as an information aggregation mechanism. Each agent has a vote, and all agents’ votes determine the election result. Some of the agents participate in the prediction market. Agents form their beliefs by observing their neighbors’ voting disposition, and trade with these beliefs by following some forms of the zero-intelligence strategy. In this model, the mean price of the market is used as a forecast of the election result. We study the effect of the radius of agents’ neighborhood and the geographical distribution of information on the prediction accuracy. In addition, we also identify one of the mechanisms which can replicate the favorite-longshot bias, a stylized fact in the prediction market. This model can then provide a framework for further analysis on the prediction market when market participants have more sophisticated trading behavior.Prediction market, Agent-based simulation, Information aggregation mechanism, Prediction accuracy, Zero-intelligence agents, Favorite-longshot bias

An Agent-Based Model of Behavior in “Beauty Contest” Games

Recently, computer simulation, particularly agent-based modeling, has grown in popularity as a method to uncover macro patterns and developments that emerge from simple micro behavior. The present paper combines both techniques by using protocol analysis to uncover player strategies in an experiment and encoding those strategies in an agent-based computer simulation. In particular, Keynes’ (1936) beauty contest analogy is simulated in a number-guessing context. Several researchers have conducted experiments asking subjects to play “p-beauty contest games” in order to compare the experimental results with those predicted by the game-theoretic, deductive reasoning concept of iterated dominance. Our results are compared with those found experimentally in order to demonstrate the usefulness of a combining agent-based modeling with protocol analysis.Agent-Based modeling; Beauty contest games