The role of decision confidence in advice-taking and trust formation

In a world where ideas flow freely between people across multiple platforms, we often find ourselves relying on others' information without an objective standard to judge whether those opinions are accurate. The present study tests an agreement-in-confidence hypothesis of advice perception, which holds that internal metacognitive evaluations of decision confidence play an important functional role in the perception and use of social information, such as peers' advice. We propose that confidence can be used, computationally, to estimate advisors' trustworthiness and advice reliability. Specifically, these processes are hypothesized to be particularly important in situations where objective feedback is absent or difficult to acquire. Here, we use a judge-advisor system paradigm to precisely manipulate the profiles of virtual advisors whose opinions are provided to participants performing a perceptual decision making task. We find that when advisors' and participants' judgments are independent, people are able to discriminate subtle advice features, like confidence calibration, whether or not objective feedback is available. However, when observers' judgments (and judgment errors) are correlated - as is the case in many social contexts - predictable distortions can be observed between feedback and feedback-free scenarios. A simple model of advice reliability estimation, endowed with metacognitive insight, is able to explain key patterns of results observed in the human data. We use agent-based modeling to explore implications of these individual-level decision strategies for network-level patterns of trust and belief formation

Anxiety, Advice, and the Ability to Discern: Feeling Anxious Motivates Individuals to Seek and Use Advice

Across eight experiments, we describe the influence of anxiety on advice seeking and advice taking. We find that anxious individuals are more likely to seek and rely on advice than are those in a neutral emotional state (Experiment 1), but this pattern of results does not generalize to other negatively-valenced emotions (Experiment 2). The relationships between anxiety and advice seeking and anxiety and advice taking are mediated by self-confidence; anxiety lowers self-confidence, which increases advice seeking and reliance upon advice (Experiment 3). Though anxiety also impairs information processing, impaired information processing does not mediate the relationship between anxiety and advice taking (Experiment 4). Finally, we find that anxious individuals fail to discriminate between good and bad advice (Experiment 5a-c), and between advice from advisors with and without a conflict of interest (Experiment 6)

Reach and speed of judgment propagation in the laboratory

In recent years, a large body of research has demonstrated that judgments and behaviors can propagate from person to person. Phenomena as diverse as political mobilization, health practices, altruism, and emotional states exhibit similar dynamics of social contagion. The precise mechanisms of judgment propagation are not well understood, however, because it is difficult to control for confounding factors such as homophily or dynamic network structures. We introduce a novel experimental design that renders possible the stringent study of judgment propagation. In this design, experimental chains of individuals can revise their initial judgment in a visual perception task after observing a predecessor's judgment. The positioning of a very good performer at the top of a chain created a performance gap, which triggered waves of judgment propagation down the chain. We evaluated the dynamics of judgment propagation experimentally. Despite strong social influence within pairs of individuals, the reach of judgment propagation across a chain rarely exceeded a social distance of three to four degrees of separation. Furthermore, computer simulations showed that the speed of judgment propagation decayed exponentially with the social distance from the source. We show that information distortion and the overweighting of other people's errors are two individual-level mechanisms hindering judgment propagation at the scale of the chain. Our results contribute to the understanding of social contagion processes, and our experimental method offers numerous new opportunities to study judgment propagation in the laboratory

NP-Logic Systems and Model-Equivalence Reductions

In this paper we investigate the existence of model-equivalence reduction between NP-logic systems which are logic systems with model existence problem in NP. It is shown that among all NP-systems with model checking problem in NP, the existentially quantified propositional logic (\exists PF) is maximal with respect to poly-time model-equivalent reduction. However, \exists PF seems not a maximal NP-system in general because there exits a NP-system with model checking problem D^P-complete

Restrictiveness and guidance in support systems

Restrictiveness and guidance have been proposed as methods for improving the performance of users of support systems. In many companies computerized support systems are used in demand forecasting enabling interventions based on management judgment to be applied to statistical forecasts. However, the resulting forecasts are often ‘sub-optimal’ because many judgmental adjustments are made when they are not required. An experiment was used to investigate whether restrictiveness or guidance in a support system leads to more effective use of judgment. Users received statistical forecasts of the demand for products that were subject to promotions. In the restrictiveness mode small judgmental adjustments to these forecasts were prohibited (research indicates that these waste effort and may damage accuracy). In the guidance mode users were advised to make adjustments in promotion periods, but not to adjust in non-promotion periods. A control group of users were not subject to restrictions and received no guidance. The results showed that neither restrictiveness nor guidance led to improvements in accuracy. While restrictiveness reduced unnecessary adjustments, it deterred desirable adjustments and also encouraged over-large adjustments so that accuracy was damaged. Guidance encouraged more desirable system use, but was often ignored. Surprisingly, users indicated it was less acceptable than restrictiveness

PENGARUH PENGGUNAAN TEPUNG DAUN KELOR SEBAGAI BAHAN PENSUBTITUSI TEPUNG TAPIOKA TERHADAP TINGKAT KEKENYALAN DAN DAYA TERIMA CILOK

Introduction : The less of calcium consumption gives negative effect of growing process especially in the teenager who has grown process growth spurt is the growing level of height (peak high velocity) and weight (peak weight velocity). The kelor leaf flour has high calcium, there is 200 mg/ 100 g. The kelor leaf flour has a potency as the substitution ingredients of tapioca flour in the process of making cilok to increase nutrition in cilok itself. Objective : To know the influence of using kelor leaf flour (moringa oleifera) as substitution of tapioca flour to the elasticity and acceptance power of cilok. Methods : This research uses complete precipitate with 4 treatments and 2 remidials. The substitution of kelor leaf flour which is used are 0%, 5%, 7,5%, and 10%. The data of acceptance power analyzing uses statistic one way anova and then continued with DMRT (Duncan Multiple Range Test) is 95%. Results : It has a substitution influence of kelor leaf flour in the tapioca flour for cilok’s color. Conclusion : It has a substitution effect of kelor leaf flour to the elasticity of cilok. It has influence increase in the aceptancepower of cilok. Advice : Taking from the result of the research it suggests that the use of kelor leaf flour substitution is 5% for making cilok

Sleep Deprivation and Advice Taking

This is the final version. Available on open access from Nature Research via the DOI in this recordJudgements and decisions in many political, economic or medical contexts are often made while sleep deprived. Furthermore, in such contexts individuals are required to integrate information provided by – more or less qualified – advisors. We asked if sleep deprivation affects advice taking. We conducted a 2 (sleep deprivation: yes vs. no) ×2 (competency of advisor: medium vs. high) experimental study to examine the effects of sleep deprivation on advice taking in an estimation task. We compared participants with one night of total sleep deprivation to participants with a night of regular sleep. Competency of advisor was manipulated within subjects. We found that sleep deprived participants show increased advice taking. An interaction of condition and competency of advisor and further post-hoc analyses revealed that this effect was more pronounced for the medium competency advisor compared to the high competency advisor. Furthermore, sleep deprived participants benefited more from an advisor of high competency in terms of stronger improvement in judgmental accuracy than well-rested participants.Volkswagen Foundatio