Darwinian Adverse Selection

We develop a model to study the role of rationality in economics and biology. The model's agents differ continuously in their ability to make rational choices. The agents' objective is to ensure their individual survival over time or, equivalently, to maximize profits. In equilibrium, however, rational agents who maximize their objective survival probability are, individually and collectively, eliminated by the forces of competition. Instead of rationality, there emerges a unique distribution of irrational players who are individually not fit for the struggle of survival. The selection of irrational players over rational ones relies on the fact that all rational players coordinate on the same optimal action, which leaves them collectively undiversified and thus vulnerable to aggregate risks.Comment: Maximization, Rationality, Economics, Biology, Group Selectio

Interviews and adverse selection

Interviewing in professional labor markets is a costly process for firms. Moreover, poor screening can have a persistent negative impact on firms’ bottom lines and candidates’ careers. In a simple dynamic model where firms can pay a cost to interview applicants who have private information about their own ability, potentially large inefficiencies arise from information-based unemployment, where able workers are rejected by firms because of their lack of offers in previous interviews. This effect may make the market less efficient than random matching. We show that the first best can be achieved using either a mechanism with transfers or one without transfers.Decentralized Labor Markets, Professional Labor Markets, Asymmetric Information, Interview costs, Matching

Fairness, Adverse Selection, and Employment Contracts

This paper considers a firm whose potential employees have private information on both their productivity and the extent of their fairness concerns. Fairness is modelled as inequity aversion, where fair-minded workers suffer if their colleagues get more income net of production costs. Screening workers with equal productivity but different fairness concerns is shown to be impossible if both types are to be employed, thereby rendering the optimal employment contracts discontinuous in the fraction of fair-minded workers. As a result, fairness might infuence the employment contracts of all workers although only some are fair-minded, and identical firms facing very similar pools of workers might employ very different remuneration schemes

Testing for Adverse Selection into Private Medical Insurance

We develop a test for adverse selection and use it to examine privatehealth insurance markets. In contrast to earlier papers that consider apurely private system or a system in which private insurance supplementsa public system, we focus our attention on a system where privately fundedhealth care is substitutive of the publicly funded one. Using a model ofcompetition among insurers, we generate predictions about the correlationbetween risk and the probability of taking private insurance under bothsymmetric information and adverse selection. These predictions constitutethe basis for our adverse selection test. The theoretical model is also usefulto conclude that the setting that we focus on is especially attractive to testfor adverse selection. Using the British Household Panel Survey, we findevidence that adverse selection is present in this market. We develop a test for adverse selection and use it to examine privatehealth insurance markets. In contrast to earlier papers that consider apurely private system or a system in which private insurance supplementsa public system, we focus our attention on a system where privately fundedhealth care is substitutive of the publicly funded one. Using a model ofcompetition among insurers, we generate predictions about the correlationbetween risk and the probability of taking private insurance under bothsymmetric information and adverse selection. These predictions constitutethe basis for our adverse selection test. The theoretical model is also usefulto conclude that the setting that we focus on is especially attractive to testfor adverse selection. Using the British Household Panel Survey, we find evidence that adverse selection is present in this market

Adverse Selection and the Accelerator

This paper reexamines the relationship between financial market imperfections and economic instability. I present a model in which financial accelerator effects come from adverse selection in credit markets. Unlike other models of the financial accelerator, the model I present has the potential to stabilize the economy rather than destabilize it. The stabilizing forces in the dynamic model are closely related to forces that cause overinvestment in static models. Consequently, the stabilizing properties of the model are not specific to adverse selection but rather are present in any environment in which credit market distortions cause overinvestment. When investment projects are equity financed, or when contracts are written optimally, the only equilibria that emerge are stabilizer equilibria. Thus, stabilizing outcomes are more robust in this model. Finally, the empirical distinction between accelerator equilibria and stabilizer equilibria is subtle. Many statistics used to test for financial accelerators are observationally equivalent in stabilizer equilibria.subliminal extant Smith economagic gmm

Adverse Selection and Financial Crises

The recent financial crisis has highlighted the importance of adverse selection as a contributing factor to financial market instability. In this article, the author examines the phenomenon of adverse selection and explains how its presence in a particular market can lead to market freezes and liquidity hoarding. She also describes several mechanisms that can propagate the initially small effect of adverse selection to the entire financial system. Possible policy responses and their effectiveness are also discussed.

Performance pay and adverse selection

We study equilibrium wage contracts in a labour market with adverse selection and moral hazard. Firms offer incentive contracts to their employees to motivate them to exert effort. Providing incentives comes, however, at a cost, as it leads to misallocation of effort across tasks. With ex ante identical workers, the optimal wage contract is linear, and the equilibrium resource allocation optimal. With ex ante heterogenous workers, firms may increase the incentive power of the wage contract to attract the better workers. The resulting equilibrium is separating, in the sense that workers self-select on contracts. Furthermore, the contracts offered to the good workers are too high powered compared to the contracts that maximise welfare.-

Turnover, wages, and adverse selection

An argument that adverse selection in the labor market can explain why frequent job-changers have lower average wages and flatter age-earnings profiles than workers who change jobs infrequently. Adverse selection also provides a basis for examining the welfare implications of low-productivity workers in the labor market.Wages ; Labor mobility

Dynamic adverse selection and debt

This paper argues that the strategic use of debt favours the revelation of information in dynamic adverse selection problems. Our argument is based on the idea that debt is a credible commitment to end long term relationships. Consequently, debt encourages a privately informed party to disclose its information at early stages of a relationship. We illustrate our point with the financing decision of a monopolist selling a good to a buyer whose valuation is private information. A high level of (renegotiable) debt, by increasing the scope for liquidation, may induce the high valuation buyer to buy early at a high price and thus increase the monopolist's expected payoff. By affecting the buyer's strategy, it may reduce the probability of excessive liquidation. We investigate the consequences of good durability and we examine the way debt may alleviate the ratchet effect.Dynamic adverse selection, durable good, ratchet effect, renegotiation, financial constraint, debt