Spatial Differentiation of the Economic Structure of the Russian Regions of the Arctic Zone

The Regions located in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation implement an important function in the development of an export potential of the country. The richest nature-resource potential of the land and the sea should be considered as the favorable factors of manufacture development in the Arctic zone. The negative factors constraining the development of the Arctic zone are as follows: severe nature-climatic conditions; considerable remoteness of the region from the subjects of the Russian Federation being socially and economically more developed; weak economic (including infrastructural) mastering of this territory; a low demographic potential of the population. The goal of the studies is to reveal the existing spatial differentiation of the economic activities in the northern latitude areas of the country. The authors have compiled several diagrams and maps to estimate the differences in the branch structure of gross value added of the subjects of the Arctic zone of Russia. Besides that, a variance of the areas’ shares in comparison with the average value of the Russian Federation as a whole has been estimated. The analysis of the features of spatial differentiation of the economic activities of the Arctic regions allows us to determine the certain tendencies of the development of economic structures for the future. The article is intended for those experts and students who are interested in the problems of the development of the northern regions of the Russian Federation.The research was supported by the Program for Fundamental Studies Support of the Presidium of the RAS (No. 44 P) “Exploratory Fundamental Research in Aimed at the Development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation”

Investment Options and Bargaining Power the Eurasian Supply Chain for Natural Gas

We use cooperative game theory to analyze how the architecture of the pipeline network determines the power structure in the supply chain for Russian gas. If the assessment is narrowly focused on the abilities to obstruct flows in the existing system, the main transit countries, Belarus and Ukraine, appear to be strong. If investment options are accounted for, however, Russia achieves clear dominance. We show that options to bypass one of the transit countries are of little strategic importance compared to Russia's direct access to its customers through the Baltic Sea. Comparing the results of our calibrated model with empirical evidence obtained from transit and import agreements we find that the Shapley value explains the power of major transit countries better than the core and the nucleolus.Bargaining Power, Supply Chain, Shapley Value, Gas Transport

Strategic Investment in International Gas-Transport Systems: A Dynamic Analysis of the Hold-up Problem

We develop a dynamic model of strategic investment in a transnational pipeline system. In the absence of international contract enforcement, countries may distort investment in order to increase their bargaining power, resulting in overinvestment in expensive and underinvestment in cheap pipelines. With repeated interaction, however, there is a potential to increase efficiency through dynamic collusion. In the theoretical part we establish a fundamental asymmetry: it is easier to avoid overinvestment than underinvestment. Calibrating the model to fit the Eurasian pipeline system for natural gas, we find that the potential to improve efficiency through dynamic cooperation is large. In reality, however, only modest improvements over the non-cooperative solution have been achieved.Multilateral bargaining, Hold-up, irreversible investment, collusion

Options for Transporting Russian Gas to Western Europe: A Game-theoretic Simulation Analysis

This paper examines the perspectives of Russian gas exports to Western Europe and the strategic options of the CIS gas transiting countries, namely Ukraine and Belarus.The development of a new transit corridor through Belarus (the Yamal-Europe pipeline), depriving Ukraine of its former monopoly, has modified the situation profoundly. The thrust of the paper is an analysis of the strategies that Ukraine and Belarus may pursue in transiting Russian gas: non-cooperative duopoly, cooperative duopoly, and individual or collective cooperation with Russia. Using a demand function for Western European gas imports from Russia, we estimate prices and quantities for gas transit, the expected profits for Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus, and the resulting import prices for Western Europe.The results indicate that Ukraine suffers a loss of several hundred million USD annually from the market entry of Belarus, Belarus has an incentive to increase its gas transit capacity to at least 56 billion cubic meters, and Russia's profits increase, in particular when it unites its gas sector with Belarus and Ukraine, a strategy pursued by Russia's Gazprom presently.F or Western Europe, all scenarios indicate an increase in welfare through the new pipeline, but also an increasing importance of gas imports from Russia.

Options for transporting Russian gas to Western Europe: A game-theoretic simulation analysis

This paper examines the perspectives of Russian gas exports to Western Europe and the strategic options of the CIS gas transiting countries, namely Ukraine and Belarus. The development of a new transit corridor through Belarus (the Yamal-Europe pipeline), depriving Ukraine of its former monopoly, has modified the situation profoundly. The thrust of the paper is an analysis of nthe strategies that Ukraine and Belarus may pursue in transiting Russian gas: non-cooperative duopoly, cooperative duopoly, and individual or collective cooperation with Russia. Using a demand function for Western European gas imports from Russia, we estimate prices and quantities for gas transit, the expected profits for Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus, and the resulting import prices for Western Europe. The results indicate that Ukraine suffers a loss of several hundred million USD annually from the market entry of Belarus, Belarus has an incentive to increase its gas transit capacity to at least 56 billion cubic meters, and Russia's profits increase, in particular when it unites its gas sector with Belarus and Ukraine. For Western Europe, all scenarios indicate an increase in welfare through the new pipeline, but also an increasing importance of gas imports from Russia. -- Der Beitrag untersucht die Perspektiven russischer Gasexporte nach Westeuropa und die strategischen Optionen der Gastransitländer Ukraine und Belarus. Durch den Neu- und Ausbau eines Gastransitkorridors durch Belarus (die Jamal-Europa-Pipeline) geht die bisherige Monopolstellung der Ukraine als Transitland verloren. Ziel der Arbeit ist die Modellierung und Quantifizierung unterschiedlicher Wettbewerbsstrategien, wie das nichtkooperative Duopol, das kooperative Duopol, oder die individuelle bzw. kollektive Kooperation der Transitländer mit Russland. Hierfür werden Exportpreise und mengen sowie die resultierenden Gewinne der Spieler geschätzt. Durch den Markteintritt von Belarus ergeben sich erhebliche Verluste für die Ukraine, während sich Belarus mit einem Ausbau seiner Kapazitäten auf 56 Mrd. m3 noch besser stellt. Russlands Gewinne steigen insbesondere durch die vertikale Integration der belarussischen und ukrainischen Gassektoren. Für Westeuropa legen die Ergebnisse erhebliche Wohlfahrtsgewinne durch den Pipelineausbau nahe, gleichzeitig aber auch eine gestiegene Abhängigkeit von Gasimporten aus Russland.Gas,pipelines,strategic behavior,CIS,Russia

Strategic Eurasian Natural Gas Model for Energy Security

The mathematical formulation of a large-scale equilibrium natural gas simulation model is presented. Although large-scale natural gas models have been developed and used for energy security and policy analysis quite extensively (e.g., Holz (2007), Egging et al. (2008), Holz et al. (2009) and Lise et al. (2008)), this model differs from earlier ones in its detailed representation of the structure and operations of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) gas sector. In particular, the model represents: (i) market power of transit countries, (ii) transmission pipelines in Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Central Asia, (iii) differentiation among gas production regions in Russia, and (iv) gas trade relations between FSU countries (e.g., Gazprom’s re-exporting of Central Asian gas). To demonstrate the model, a social benefit-cost analysis of the Nord Stream gas pipeline project from Russia to Germany via the Baltic Sea is provided. It is found that Nord Stream project is profitable for its investors and the project also improves social welfare in all market power scenarios. Also, if transit countries (Ukraine and Belarus) exert substantial market power then the economic value of Nord Stream to its investors and to society improves substantially. We also found that the value of Nord Stream investment is rather sensitive to the degree of downstream competition in European markets and that lack of downstream competition might result in the negative value of the Nord Stream system to Gazprom

Evaluation of the current state of aquatic ecosystems and the problems of the protection of biological resources during development of kruzenshternskoye gcf

The results of studies of the current state of freshwater ecosystems and their biotic components in the western part of the Yamal Peninsula are presented in the article. Based on the evaluation of the structure of communities of phytoplankton, zooplankton, benthos, and whitefishes, the range of problems related to the protection of biological resources during the development of the Kruzenshternskoye gas field is defined. The data on species composition and quantitative indicators of hydrobionts of different types of waterbodies and watercourses in the lower reaches of the Mordyyakha and Naduyyakha Rivers basins is the basis for environmental monitoring of water objects during development and exploitation of the Kruzenshternskoye gas field. Estimation of the fish fauna state and their food base in the territory of the Kruzenshternskoye GCF according to the monitoring program is present. The river delta zones are the most important feeding areas of the salmonid and whitefishes valuable fish species in the territory of Kruzenshternskoye GCF. In cases where water bodies and watercourses are not completely demolished for the construction of GCF facilities, changes of quantitative and qualitative characteristics of communities of hydrobionts after the end of operations are reversible. River ecosystems are restored within a shorter period of time in comparison to lacustrine ones. Proposals for the protection of fisheries resources and monitoring of aquatic ecosystems on the basis of comprehensive studies are reported. Recommendations on reducing the anthropogenic impact on aquatic ecosystems in the development period are present. The results of the investigation were used in the development of the environmental protection part of the Kruzenshternskoye deposit project. Anthropogenic disturbances present now on the gas deposit territory of Kruzenshternskoye does not influence the aquatic ecosystems.The article have been prepared within the Project of the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences № 12-P-47-2013 and "The Arctic" Project of the Presidium of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences № 12-4-3-012

The ISCIP Analyst, Volume XVI, Issue 5

This repository item contains a single issue of The ISCIP Analyst, an analytical review journal published from 1996 to 2010 by the Boston University Institute for the Study of Conflict, Ideology, and Policy

Geopolitics of Natural Gas Supply in Europe - Poland Between the EU and Russia

The article analyses possible interests, attitudes and activities of the major actors in the ‘natural gas supply game’ in Europe after 1990: Russia/Gazprom, alternative suppliers like countries in the Caspian Sea area, the main consumers of gas and transit countries. It stresses that behaviour of the actors depends on the changing international political and economic situation and conditions in individual countries. Special attention is paid to pipeline projects: Nord Stream, South Stream and Nabucco, and reactions to them, such as building a LGN terminal at Świnoujście (Poland), North-South (Baltic-Adriatic) energy corridor and the Polish-Russian gas contract of 2010