A RMSM-X model for Turkey

To improve the Bank's macroeconomic modeling capabilities, a continuum of macro models referred to as RMSM-X and RMSM-XX are being developed. These models share a common accounting framework that ensures economic consistency among economic sectors. This paper shows how to specify the budget constraints and market clearing conditions in a RMSM-X model for Turkey. An overview of the system defined by the RMSM-X model, the debt module (DM) and the data base is presented, along with a detailed explanation of the theoretical model. Alternative closure rules are discussed and the debt model is presented. This paper also includes annexes which present a complete set of historical data and an explanation of how the data was constructed.Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Stabilization,Financial Intermediation

High twist contribution to the longitudinal structure function FLF_L at high xx

We performed NLO QCD fit of combined SLAC/BCDMS/NMC DIS data at high $x$. Model independent x-shape of high twist contribution to structure function $F_L$ is extracted. Twist-4 contribution is found to be in fair agreement with the predictions of infrared renormalon model. Twist-6 contribution exhibits weak tendency to negative values, although in the whole is compatible with zero within errors.Comment: 14 pages, LATEX, 9 figures (EPS

Prerequisite for superconductivity: appropriate spin-charge correlations

This work investigates the relation between superconductivity and correlations. A simple calculation shows that the appropriate spin-charge correlation is the key role to any superconductivity, and this calculation is consistent with the analyses of unusual properties of superconductors. (Note: the Tc of this model is not given clearly in this work, but we have advanced this mechanism to a t-x model which includes various superconductivities and magnetisms (please see arXiv:0707.3660 and following works).)Comment: 7page

The Left-Right SU(3)(L)xSU(3)(R)xU(1)(X) Model with Light, keV and Heavy Neutrinos

We construct a full left-right model for the electroweak interactions based on the $SU(3)_{L}\otimes SU(3)_{R}\otimes U(1)_{X}$ gauge symmetry. The fermion content of the model is such that anomaly cancellation restricts the number of families to be a multiple of three. One of the most important features of the model is the joint presence of three light active neutrinos, three additional neutrinos at keV mass scale, and six heavy ones with masses around\textbf{$10^{11}$} GeV. They form a well-motivated part of the spectrum in the sense they address challenging problems related to neutrino oscillation, warm dark matter, and baryogenesis through leptogenesis.Comment: 11 pages. Small corrections and typos fixed. Accepted for publication in PR

Forecasting the time-varying beta of UK firms: GARCH models vs Kalman filter method

This paper forecast the weekly time-varying beta of 20 UK firms by means of four different GARCH models and the Kalman filter method. The four GARCH models applied are the bivariate GARCH, BEKK GARCH, GARCH-GJR and the GARCH-X model. The paper also compares the forecasting ability of the GARCH models and the Kalman method. Forecast errors based on return forecasts are employed to evaluate out-of-sample forecasting ability of both GARCH models and Kalman method. Measures of forecast errors overwhelmingly support the Kalman filter approach. Among the GARCH models both GJR and GARCH-X models appear to provide a bit more accurate forecasts than the bivariate GARCH model

An Introductory Review of a Structural VAR-X Estimation and Applications

This document presents how to estimate and implement a structural VAR-X model under long run and impact identification restrictions. Estimation by bayesian and maximum likelihood methods is presented. Applications of the structural VAR-X for impulse response functions to structural shocks, multiplier analysis of the exogenous variables, forecast error variance decomposition and historical decomposition of the endogenous variables are also described, as well as a method for computing HPD regions in a bayesian context. Some of the concepts are exemplified with an application to US data.S-VAR, B-VAR, VAR-X, IRF, FEVD, Historical Decomposition. Classification JEL: C11, C18, C32.

Mean first passage time analysis reveals rate-limiting steps, parallel pathways and dead ends in a simple model of protein folding

We have analyzed dynamics on the complex free energy landscape of protein folding in the FOLD-X model, by calculating for each state of the system the mean first passage time to the folded state. The resulting kinetic map of the folding process shows that it proceeds in jumps between well-defined, local free energy minima. Closer analysis of the different local minima allows us to reveal secondary, parallel pathways as well as dead ends.Comment: 7 page