Alternative Model Selection Using Forecast Error Variance Decompositions in Wholesale Chicken Markets

Although Vector Autoregressive models are commonly used to forecast prices, specification of these models remains an issue. Questions that arise include choice of variables and lag length. This article examines the use of Forecast Error Variance Decompositions to guide the econometrician’s model specification. Forecasting performance of Variance Autoregressive models, generated from Forecast Error Variance Decompositions, is analyzed within wholesale chicken markets. Results show that the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition approach has the potential to provide superior model selections to traditional Granger Causality tests.broiler markets, DAGs, forecasting, market structure, VAR, Agribusiness, Demand and Price Analysis, Livestock Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty, C53, D4, L1, Q00,

Visual field loss and vision-related quality of life in the Italian Primary Open Angle Glaucoma Study.

The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between visual field (VF) loss, vision-related quality of life (QoL) and glaucoma-related symptoms in a large cohort of primary open angle glaucoma (POAG) patients. POAG patients with or without VF defects or "glaucoma suspect" patients were considered eligible. QoL was assessed using the validated versions of the 25-item National Eye Institute Visual Function Questionnaire (NEI-VFQ-25) and glaucoma-related symptoms were assessed using the Glaucoma Symptom Scale (GSS). Patients were classified as having VF damage in one eye (VFD-1), both eyes (VFD-2), or neither eye (VFD-0). 3227 patients were enrolled and 2940 were eligible for the analysis. 13.4% of patients were classified in the VFD-0, 23.7% in the VFD-1, and 62.9% in the VFD-2 group. GSS visual symptoms domain (Func-4) and GSS non-visual symptoms domain (Symp-6) scores were similar for the VFD-0 and VFD-1 groups (p = 0.133 and p = 0.834 for Func-4 and Symp-6, respectively). VFD-0 group had higher scores than VFD-2 both in Func-4 (p < 0.001) and Symp-6 domains (p = 0.035). Regarding the NEI-VFQ-25, our data demonstrated that bilateral VF defects are associated with vision-related QoL deterioration, irrespective of visual acuity

Ownership and co-management: towards the integrated management of Lake Victoria

The management of Lake Victoria is a high priority to the riparian countries that benefit directly from its resources. Management regulations have been formulated and implemented with the aim of maintaining the lake's ecological quality as well as sustaining fisheries exploitation for economic gain. Results indicate, however, that the regulations have not been successful in maintaining the state of the lake's ecosystem nor the fisheries. There has been a continuing decline in fish catches as well as declining biodiversity. Currently, the riparian countries are considering the introduction of a co-management regime as an alternative managerial strategy to address the lake's problems. In this paper it is argued that the failure of the former management regulations was because ownership of the lake was not clearly defined. It is further argued that even if co-management were to be successfully instituted, it will yield very minimal results if the problem of ownership is not properly addressed. This paper explores the ownership status of the lake based on data collected in Tanzania, and examines the relationship between, and significance of, ownership and co-management. The research makes recommendations for how these concepts can contribute to an integrated management of the lak

The first direct double neutron star merger detection: implications for cosmic nucleosynthesis

The astrophysical r-process site where about half of the elements heavier than iron are produced has been a puzzle for several decades. Here we discuss the role of neutron star mergers (NSMs) in the light of the first direct detection of such an event in both gravitational (GW) and electromagnetic (EM) waves. We analyse bolometric and NIR lightcurves of the first detected double neutron star merger and compare them to nuclear reaction network-based macronova models. The slope of the bolometric lightcurve is consistent with the radioactive decay of neutron star ejecta with $Y_e \lesssim 0.3$ (but not larger), which provides strong evidence for an r-process origin of the electromagnetic emission. This rules out in particular "nickel winds" as major source of the emission. We find that the NIR lightcurves can be well fitted either with or without lanthanide-rich ejecta. Our limits on the ejecta mass together with estimated rates directly confirm earlier purely theoretical or indirect observational conclusions that double neutron star mergers are indeed a major site of cosmic nucleosynthesis. If the ejecta mass was {\em typical}, NSMs can easily produce {\em all} of the estimated Galactic r-process matter, and --depending on the real rate-- potentially even more. This could be a hint that the event ejected a particularly large amount of mass, maybe due to a substantial difference between the component masses. This would be compatible with the mass limits obtained from the GW-observation. The recent observations suggests that NSMs are responsible for a broad range of r-process nuclei and that they are at least a major, but likely the dominant r-process site in the Universe.Comment: 11 pages, 8 figures; accepted for A \&

Synthesising co-management for Lake Victoria: discussions on models relating to concepts of sustainability and participative management

This book section aims to synthesise the results of the surveys related to the LVFRP by developing different strategies to implement a sustainable and participative co-management model

Light-curve modelling constraints on the obliquities and aspect angles of the young Fermi pulsars

In more than four years of observation the Large Area Telescope on board the Fermi satellite has identified pulsed $\gamma$-ray emission from more than 80 young pulsars, providing light curves with high statistics. Fitting the observations with geometrical models can provide estimates of the magnetic obliquity $\alpha$ and aspect angle $\zeta$, yielding estimates of the radiation beaming factor and luminosity. Using $\gamma$-ray emission geometries (Polar Cap, Slot Gap, Outer Gap, One Pole Caustic) and radio emission geometry, we fit $\gamma$-ray light curves for 76 young pulsars and we jointly fit their $\gamma$-ray plus radio light curves when possible. We find that a joint radio plus $\gamma$-ray fit strategy is important to obtain ($\alpha$, $\zeta$) estimates that can explain simultaneous radio and $\gamma$-ray emission. The intermediate-to-high altitude magnetosphere models, Slot Gap, Outer Gap, and One pole Caustic, are favoured in explaining the observations. We find no evolution of $\alpha$ on a time scale of a million years. For all emission geometries our derived $\gamma$-ray beaming factors are generally less than one and do not significantly evolve with the spin-down power. A more pronounced beaming factor vs. spin-down power correlation is observed for Slot Gap model and radio-quiet pulsars and for the Outer Gap model and radio-loud pulsars. For all models, the correlation between $\gamma$-ray luminosity and spin-down power is consistent with a square root dependence. The $\gamma$-ray luminosities obtained by using our beaming factors not exceed the spin-down power. This suggests that assuming a beaming factor of one for all objects, as done in other studies, likely overestimates the real values. The data show a relation between the pulsar spectral characteristics and the width of the accelerator gap that is consistent with the theoretical prediction for the Slot Gap model.Comment: 90 pages, 80 figures (63 in Appendices), accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysic

Is Regionalism Simply a Diversion? Evidence From the Evolution of the EC and EFTA

This paper considers the impact on trade of preferential arrangements in Europe since the 1950s. Using a first difference version of the gravity model, we find that the EC and EFTA altered the pattern of international trade. We also find evidence of trade diversion in several cases, notably that of the EC in the 1960s.