Wind Power Forecasting Methods Based on Deep Learning: A Survey

Accurate wind power forecasting in wind farm can effectively reduce the enormous impact on grid operation safety when high permeability intermittent power supply is connected to the power grid. Aiming to provide reference strategies for relevant researchers as well as practical applications, this paper attempts to provide the literature investigation and methods analysis of deep learning, enforcement learning and transfer learning in wind speed and wind power forecasting modeling. Usually, wind speed and wind power forecasting around a wind farm requires the calculation of the next moment of the definite state, which is usually achieved based on the state of the atmosphere that encompasses nearby atmospheric pressure, temperature, roughness, and obstacles. As an effective method of high-dimensional feature extraction, deep neural network can theoretically deal with arbitrary nonlinear transformation through proper structural design, such as adding noise to outputs, evolutionary learning used to optimize hidden layer weights, optimize the objective function so as to save information that can improve the output accuracy while filter out the irrelevant or less affected information for forecasting. The establishment of high-precision wind speed and wind power forecasting models is always a challenge due to the randomness, instantaneity and seasonal characteristics

Application of probabilistic deep learning models to simulate thermal power plant processes

Deep learning has gained traction in thermal engineering due to its applications to process simulations, the deeper insights it can provide and its abilities to circumvent the shortcomings of classic thermodynamic simulation approaches by capturing complex inter-dependencies. This works sets out to apply probabilistic deep learning to power plant operations using historic plant data. The first study presented, entails the development of a steady-state mixture density network (MDN) capable of predicting effective heat transfer coefficients (HTC) for the various heat exchanger components inside a utility scale boiler. Selected directly controllable input features, including the excess air ratio, steam temperatures, flow rates and pressures are used to predict the HTCs. In the second case study, an encoder-decoder mixturedensity network (MDN) is developed using recurrent neural networks (RNN) for the prediction of utility-scale air-cooled condenser (ACC) backpressure. The effects of ambient conditions and plant operating parameters, such as extraction flow rate, on ACC performance is investigated. In both case studies, hyperparameter searches are done to determine the best performing architectures for these models. Comparisons are drawn between the MDN model versus standard model architecture in both case studies. The HTC predictor model achieved 90% accuracy which equates to an average error of 4.89 W m2K across all heat exchangers. The resultant time-series ACC model achieved an average error of 3.14 kPa, which translate into a model accuracy of 82%