What is a Business Cycle?

This paper considers the question in its title from several angles. Part 1 looks at economic history and the development of thinking about business cycles - the popular meaning and economists' definitions and ideas. Part 2 reviews the lessons from business cycle chronologies and duration data, the concepts of periodicity of cycles and phases, and the apparent moderation of macroeconomic fluctuations in the second half of the 20th century. Part 3 compares the recent business cycles and growth cycles for several major industrialized, market-oriented countries. Part 4 discusses the role of endogenous cyclical variables, the outside shocks of various types, the systematic timing sequences, and the regularities of cyclical comovements and amplitudes. Understanding business cycles is aided by each of these models of analysis. Business cycles have varied greatly over the past 200 years in length, spread, and size. At the same time, they are distinguished by their recurrence, persistence, and pervasiveness. They make up a class of varied, complex, and evolving phenomena of both history and economic dynamics. Theories or models that try to reduce them to a single causal mechanism or shock are unlikely to succeed.

What Exactly is an Insight? A Literature Review

Insights are often considered the ideal outcome of visual analysis sessions. However, there is no single definition of what an insight is. Some scholars define insights as correlations, while others define them as hypotheses or aha moments. This lack of a clear definition can make it difficult to build visualization tools that effectively support insight discovery. In this paper, we contribute a comprehensive literature review that maps the landscape of existing insight definitions. We summarize key themes regarding how insight is defined, with the goal of helping readers identify which definitions of insight align closely with their research and tool development goals. Based on our review, we also suggest interesting research directions, such as synthesizing a unified formalism for insight and connecting theories of insight to other critical concepts in visualization research.Comment: Technical report. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2206.0476

Biosemiosis and Causation: Defending Biosemiotics Through Rosen's Theoretical Biology, or, Integrating Biosemiotics and Anticipatory Systems Theory

The fracture in the emerging discipline of biosemiotics when the code biologist Marcello Barbieri claimed that Peircian biosemiotics is not genuine science raises anew the question: What is science? When it comes to radically new approaches in science, there is no simple answer to this question, because if successful, these new approaches change what is understood to be science. This is what Galileo, Darwin and Einstein did to science, and with quantum theory, opposing interpretations are not merely about what theory is right, but what is real science. Peirce's work, as he acknowledged, is really a continuation of efforts of Schelling to challenge the heritage of Newtonian science for the very good reason that the deep assumptions of Newtonian science had made sentient life, human consciousness and free will unintelligible, the condition for there being science. Pointing out the need for such a revolution in science has not succeeded as a defence of Peircian biosemiotics, however. In this paper, I will defend the scientific credentials of Peircian biosemiotics by relating it to the theoretical biology of the bio-mathematician, Robert Rosen. Rosen's relational biology, focusing on anticipatory systems and giving a place to final causes, should also be seen as a rigorous development of the Schellingian project to conceive nature in such a way that the emergence of sentient life, mind and science are intelligible. Rosen has made a very strong case for the characterization of his ideas as a real advance not only in science, but in how science should be understood, and I will argue that it is possible to provide a strong defence of Peircian biosemiotics as science through Rosen's defence of relational biology. In the process, I will show how biosemiotics can and should become a crucial component of anticipatory systems theory

Is the Internet a Maturing Market? If So, What Does That Imply?

Network providers are experimenting with a variety of new business arrangements. Some are offering specialized services the guarantee higher levels of quality of service those willing to pay for it. Others are entering into strategic partnerships that allocate more bandwidth to certain sources. Interestingly, a management literature exists suggesting that both developments may simply reflect the ways that the nature of competition and innovation can be expected as markets mature. The real question is not if the nature of competition and innovation will change, but rather when and how. This theory also suggests that policymakers should be careful not to lock the Internet into any particular architecture or to reflexively regard deviations from the status quo as inherently anticompetitive. Instead, they should focus on creating regulatory structures that preserve industry participants’ freedom to tussle with new solutions and to adapt to changing market conditions. Any other approach risks precluding the industry from following its natural evolutionary path

Experiencing mobility in underground transport systems.

A liveable city requires accessible transport systems to serve a diverse range of people; otherwise, citizens may find parts of the city inaccessible. Socio-economic consequences of severance are well known, however the impact of what the author names as ‘vertical severance’ (VS) appears less understood, owing to the relatively recent introduction of step-free underground stations. This paper explains What attitudes and issues caused VS. So What were the implications and actionable insights of VS within the context of liveability within cities, and What Next. To serve a diverse population recommendations include incorporating new design procedures, and new design ideas for existing and new stations. Furthermore, VS could become a measure that describes the how liveable a city is for people of all ages and abilities. In conclusion, a sustainable vision for People Centred Mobility in Liveable Cities requires zero VS within stations and other transport systems