Optimal Foreign Reserves: The Case of Croatia

This paper develops a simple model of precautionary foreign reserves in a dollarized economy subject to a sudden stop shock that occurs concurrently with a bank run. By including specific features of the Croatian economy in our model we extend the framework of Goncalves (2007). An analytical expression of optimal reserves is derived and calibrated for Croatia in order to evaluate the adequacy of the Croatian National Bank foreign reserves. We show that the precautionary demand for reserves is consistent with the trend of the strong accumulation of foreign reserves over the last ten years. Whether this trend has been too strong or whether the actual reserves are lower than the optimal reserves depends on the possible reaction of the parent banks during a crisis. We show that for plausible values of parameters, the Croatian National Bank has enough reserves to fight a possible crisis of the magnitude of the 1998/1999 sudden stop with a banking crisis episode. This result holds regardless of the parent banks’ reaction. We also show how use of the two standard indicators of “optimal” reserves, the Greenspan-Guidotti and the 3-months-of-imports rules, might lead to an unrealistic assessment of foreign reserves optimality in the case of Croatia.sudden stop, banking crisis, dollarized economy, optimal reserves

Investigating the Early Signals of Banking Sector Vulnerabilities in Central and East European Emerging Markets

This paper considers the joint role of macro-economic and bankspecific factors in explaining the occurrence of banking problems in the twenty-one Central and East European emerging markets over the recent decade. Using data at the individual bank level we show, using a logit model, that the macroeconomic factors play a central role in determining banking sector instability in the early stages of difficulty, while the bankspecific factors are more important in the later stages and gain more weight as the banking sector develops and the institutional framework becomes mature.banking sector vulnerability, banking crises, early warning indicators, Central and Eastern Europe

The regulation and supervision of banks around the world - a new database

International consultants on bank regulation, and supervision for developing countries, often base their advice on how their home country does things, for lack of information on practice in other countries. Recommendations for reform have tended to be shaped by bias rather than facts. To better inform advice about bank regulation, and supervision, and to lower the marginal cost of empirical research, the authors present, and discuss a new, and comprehensive database on the regulation, and supervisionof banks in a hundred and seven countries. The data, based on surveys sent to national bank regulatory, supervisory authorities, are now available to researchers, and policymakers around the world. The data cover such aspects of banking as entry requirements, ownership restrictions, capital requirements, activity restrictions, external auditing requirements, characteristics of deposit insurance schemes, loan classification and provisioning requirements, accounting and disclosure requirements, troubled bank resolution actions, and (uniquely) the quality of supervisory personnel, and their actions. The database permits users to learn how banks are currently regulated, and supervised, and about bank structures, and deposit insurance schemes, for a broad cross-section of countries. In addition to describing the data, the authors show how variables ay be grouped, and aggregated. They also show some simple correlations among selected variables. In a comparison paper ("Bank regulation and supervision: What works best") studying the relationship between differences in bank regulation and supervision, and bank performance and stability, they conclude that: 1) Countries with policies that promote private monitoring of banks, have better bank performance, and more stability. Countries with more generous deposit insurance schemes tend to have poorer bank performance, and more bank fragility. 2) Diversification of income streams, and loan portfolios - by not restricting bank activities - also tends to improve performance, and stability. (This works best when an active securities market exists). Countries in which banks are encouraged to diversify their portfolios, domestically and internationally, suffer fewer crisis.Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Theory&Research,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Financial Intermediation,Financial Crisis Management&Restructuring,Banks&Banking Reform,Financial Intermediation,Financial Crisis Management&Restructuring,Economic Theory&Research,Insurance&Risk Mitigation

How banks go abroad : branches or subsidiaries ?

The authors examine the factors that influence banks'type of organizational form when operating in foreign markets using an original database of the branches and subsidiaries in Latin America and Eastern Europe of the top 100 international banks. They find that regulation, taxation, the degree of desired penetration in the local market, and host-country economic and political risks matter. Banks are more likely to operate as branches in countries that have higher corporate taxes and when they face lower regulatory restrictions on bank entry, in general, and on foreign branches, in particular. Subsidiaries are the preferred organizational form by banks that seek to penetrate the local market establishing large and mostly retail operations. Finally, there is evidence that economic and political risks have opposite effects on the type of organizational form, suggesting that legal differences in the degree of parent bank responsibility vis-à-vis branches and subsidiaries under different risk scenarios play an important role in the kind of operations international banks maintain overseasBanks&Banking Reform,Financial Intermediation,Banking Law,Financial Crisis Management&Restructuring,Economic Theory&Research

Signals from housing and lending booms

The contribution of this paper is to revisit the Early Warning System (EWS) literature by analysing selected episodes of financial market crisis, i.e. those preceded by a spell of credit and real estate expansions. The aim is to disentangle instances when this constitutes a natural phenomenon associated with a process of financial development and innovation from those where it constitutes a worrisome signal. We identify economic variables that have leading indicator properties, thus helping to distinguish between “benign” episodes from those likely ending with downward pressures on the exchange rate or even a fully-fledged banking crisis. We find that a large current account deficit, a fall in price competitiveness, strong real growth and high public debt-to-GDP ratio increase the probability that a lending or housing boom would be accompanied by financial market tensions shortly after the peak. JEL Classification: E32, F31, F37credit booms, Early Warning System, Financial crises, House prices

Financial Systems in Transition: Could Small Actually Be Beautiful?

CEEC; Russia

Economic Convergence in South-Eastern Europe: Will the Financial Sector deliver?

The pace of financial development in south-eastern Europe has accelerated. In a setting of low inflation and robust growth, domestic credit and cross-border flows are expanding rapidly. This can strengthen sustainable real convergence by supporting productivity gains – thus underpinning higher incomes, enhanced competitiveness and a smooth servicing of external liabilities. But such an outcome is not guaranteed. It depends on a favourable investment climate. Otherwise, an expansion of private consumption and residential investment may not be matched by growth in the traded goods sector and in other productive activities. EU Accession – with its potential for trade and investment integration, and an acquis-based strengthening of institutions – improves the chances of good outcomes. But deep structural reforms, as well as sound fiscal and prudential policies, are essential to foster sustainable growth and to avoid financial stress.