The Warsaw Stock Exchange Index WIG: Modelling and Forecasting

In this paper we have assessed an influence of the NYSE Stock Exchange indexes (DJIA and NASDAQ) and European Stock indexes (DAX and FTSE) on the Warsaw Stock Exchange index WIG within a framework of a GARCH model. By applying a procedure of checking predictive quality of econometric models as proposed by Fair and Shiller (1990), we have found that the NYSE market has relatively more power than European markets in explaining the WSE index WIG.Warsaw Stock Exchange, stock index, GARCH model, forecasting

Ukrainian companies on the Warsaw Stock Exchange: Current state and future trends

As a result of globalization trends many businesses are able to raise capital not only in their domestic market, but also abroad. Among the stock exchanges which have managed to attract foreign companies is the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Over the past few years many companies from Ukraine have chosen to be listed on the Warsaw Exchange. This article provides an analysis of the conditions linked to raising capital for Ukrainian companies on the Polish market

Is Locking Domestic Funds into the Local Market Beneficial? Evidence from the Polish Pension Reforms

This paper is concerned with the effect of enforced home bias on the development of emerging stock markets. It provides a detailed study of the impact on the Warsaw Stock Exchange of the Polish pension fund reforms and the associated restrictions on international investment. The time path of market development for the Warsaw Stock Exchange is compared with a benchmark sample consisting of the other seven post-communist countries that joined the EU in May 2004. It is shown that benefits arising from the pension funds’ increased investment in the home market are short-lived. In the long run, the relative performance of the Polish market returned to pre-1999 levels or worse, suggesting that enforced home bias on emerging markets may be detrimental, rather than beneficial, to the long-run development of the market.pension reforms, home bias, stock market development, transition countries

The impact of institutional investors on risk and stock return autocorrelation in the context of the polish pension reform

The main aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between the increasing share of institutional investors resulting from the pension reform in Poland and stock return autocorrelation as well as risk level on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The problem under consideration is investigated by applying the M–GARCH model for the individual stocks included in the investment portfolios of the pension funds operating in Poland.stock return autocorrelation, risk, institutional investors, pension reform

The Warsaw Stock Exchange index WIG : modelling and forecasting

In this paper we have assessed an influence of the NYSE Stock Exchange indexes (DJIA and NASDAQ) and European Stock indexes (DAX and FTSE) on the Warsaw Stock Exchange index WIG within a framework of a GARCH model. By applying a procedure of checking predictive quality of econometric models as proposed by Fair and Shiller (1990), we have found that the NYSE market has relatively more power than European markets in explaining the WSE index WIG

The Relationship Between Stock Market Development and Macroeconomic Fundamentals in the Visegrad Group

This study examines the effect of specific macroeconomic factors on the stock prices of selected financial sector companies listed on the Central European Exchanges (Budapest Stock Exchange, Prague Stock Exchange, Bratislava Stock Exchange, or Warsaw Stock Exchange). We investigate the nature of the causal relationships between macroeconomic factors and stock prices. The long‑term causality, tested using the Johansen cointegration test, and the short‑run dynamics between the variables, examined using the VECM model, are explored using quarterly data from the 2005-2014 period. The short‑term causality shows the possibility of time series fluctuations; however a steady state should be achieved in the long‑term. In general, we confirmed that macroeconomic fundamentals had a negative impact on stock prices. The interest rate, which also has a negative impact, is the most prominent predictor of the long‑run developments. We also found very rare examples of macroeconomic variables that explain changes in stock prices within the VECM framework

Investor Reaction to Mandatory Offers on the Warsaw Stock Exchange

The following paper aims to assess investor reaction to mandatory offers on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, which is important because knowledge about these reactions can be used to make better investment decisions. This paper highlights the importance of procedure in making a mandatory offer and its grounds in the Polish legal system. Additionally, it presents empirical research on the reactions of investors to mandatory offers on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. It has been provided that mandatory offers have a significant impact on the price of a company’s shares listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Knowledge about the reactions of investors to a mandatory offer may be used when selecting securities for an investment portfolio. The findings may provide guidance in deciding whether to begin or end investment in the company, both for individual and institutional investors. The event study methodology approach used in the paper is regarded as valuable and can be the basis for further research in other areas of the capital market research, especially in the context of information efficiency

Joint Dynamics of Prices and Trading Volume on the Polish Stock Market

This paper concerns the relationship between stock returns and trading volume. We use daily stock data of the Polish companies included in the WIG20 segment (the twenty most liquid companies quoted on the primary market of the Warsaw Stock Exchange). The sample covers the period from January 1995 to April 2005. We find that there is no empirical support for a relationship between stock return levels and trading volume. On the other hand, our calculations provide evidence for a significant contemporaneous interaction between return volatility and trading volume. Our investigations reveal empirical evidence for the importance of volume data as an indicator of the flow of information into the market. These results are in line with suggestions from the Mixture of Distribution Hypothesis. By means of the Granger causality test, we establish causality from both stock returns and return volatility to trading volume. Our results indicate that series on trading activities have little additional explanatory power for subsequent price changes over that already contained in the price series.abnormal stock returns, return volatility, abnormal trading volume, GARCH-cum-volume, causal relations