Who Engages in Water Scarcity Conflicts? A Field Experiment with Irrigators in Semi-arid Africa

Does water scarcity induce conflict? And who would engage in a water scarcity conflict? In this paper we look for evidence of the relation between water scarcity and conflictive behavior. With a framed field experiment conducted with smallholder irrigators from semi-arid Tanzania that replicates appropriation from an occasionally scarce common water flow we assess what type of water users is more inclined to react in conflictive way to scarcity. On average, water scarcity induces selfish appropriation behavior in the experiment which is regarded as conflictive in the Tanzanian irrigator communities where strong noncompetition norms regulate irrigation water distribution. But not all react to water scarcity in the same way. Poor, marginalized, dissocialized irrigators with low human capital and with higher stakes are most likely to react with conflictive appropriation behavior to water scarcity. Viewed from a political ecology perspective we conclude that circumstances in Tanzania are conducive to resource scarcity conflicts. Water scarcity and water values are increasing, and water governance institutions entail exclusionary elements. Moreover, a higher likelihood to react in a conflictive way to water scarcity coincides with real economic and political inequalities which could form a basis for mobilization for more violent ways of competing for scarce resources

Global water scarcity: the monthly blue water footprint compared to blue water availability for the world's major river basins

Conventional blue water scarcity indicators suffer from four weaknesses: they measure water withdrawal instead of consumptive water use, they compare water use with actual runoff rather than natural (undepleted) runoff, they ignore environmental flow requirements and they evaluate scarcity on an annual rather than a monthly time scale. In the current study, these shortcomings are solved by defining blue water scarcity as the ratio of blue water footprint to blue water availability – where the latter is taken as natural runoff minus environmental flow requirement – and by estimating all underlying variables on a monthly basis. In this study we make for the first time a global estimate of the blue water footprint of humanity at a high spatial resolution level (a five by five arc minute grid) on a monthly basis. In order to estimate blue water scarcity at river basin level, we aggregated the computed monthly blue water footprints at grid cell level to monthly blue water footprints at river basin level. By comparing the estimates of the monthly blue water footprint with\ud estimates of the monthly blue water availability at river basin level, we assess the intra-annual variability of blue water scarcity for the world’s major river basins. Monthly blue water footprints were estimated based on\ud Mekonnen and Hoekstra (2011a). Natural runoff per river basin was estimated by adding estimates of actual runoff from Fekete et al. (2002) and estimates of water volumes already consumed. Environmental flow requirements were estimated based on the presumptive standard for environmental flow protection as proposed\ud by Richter et al. (2011), which can be regarded as a precautionary estimate of environmental flow requirements. Within the study period 1996-2005, in 223 river basins (55% of the basins studied) with in total 2.72 billion\ud inhabitants (69% of the total population living in the basins included in this study), the blue water scarcity level exceeded one hundred per cent during at least one month of the year, which means that environmental flow requirements were violated during at least one month of the year. In 201 river basins with in total 2.67 billion people there was severe water scarcity, which means that the blue water footprint was more than twice the blue water availability, during at least one month per year. Global average blue water scarcity – estimated by averaging the annual average monthly blue water scarcity\ud values per river basin weighted by basin area – is 85%. This is the average blue water scarcity over the year within the total land area considered in this study. When we weight the annual average monthly blue water scarcity values per river basin according to population number per basin, global average blue water scarcity is 133%. This is the average scarcity as experienced by the people in the world. This population-weighted average scarcity is higher than the area-weighted scarcity because the water scarcity values in densely populated areas –\ud which are often higher than in sparsely populated areas – get more weight. Yet another way of expressing water scarcity is to take the perspective of the average water consumer. The global water consumption pattern is different from the population density pattern, because intensive water consumption in agriculture is not specifically related to where most people live. If we estimate global blue water scarcity by averaging monthly blue water scarcity values per river basin weighted based on the blue water footprint in the respective month and basin, we calculate a global blue water scarcity at 244%. This means that the average blue water consumer in the world experiences a water scarcity of 244%, i.e. operates in a month in a basin in which the blue water footprint is 2.44 times the blue water availability and in which presumptive environmental flow requirements are thus strongly violated.\ud The data presented in this report should be taken with care. The quality of the presented blue water scarcity data depends on the quality of the underlying data. The estimates of both monthly blue water footprint and monthly blue water availability per river basin can easily contain an error of ± 20 per cent, but a solid basis for making a precise error statement is lacking. This obviously needs additional research. Furthermore, improvements in the estimates can be made by including the effect of dams on the blue water availability over time, by accounting for inter-basin water transfers, by distinguishing between surface water, renewable groundwater and fossil groundwater, by improving estimates of environmental flow requirements, by looking at water scarcity at the level of sub-basins, and by considering inter-annual variability as well. Despite this great room for improvement and bringing in more detail, the current study is a milestone in global water scarcity studies by mapping water\ud scarcity for the first time on a monthly basi

Water Scarcity, Marketing, and Privatization

Most Americans take water for granted. Turn on the tap and a limitless quantity of high quality water flows for less money than it costs for cable television or a cell phone. The current drought has raised awareness of water scarcity, but most proposals for dealing with drought involve quick fixes-short-term palliatives, such as bans on washing cars or watering lawns except on alternate days. It is assumed that things will return to normal, and we will be able to wash our cars whenever we wish. But the nation's water supply is not inexhaustible. A just-released report of a White House subcommittee ominously begins: "Does the United States have enough water? We do not know." In a survey of states conducted by the U.S. General Accounting Office, only 14 states reported that they did not expect to suffer water shortages in the next 10 years. Is the sky falling? Not yet, but the United States is heading toward a water scarcity crisis: our current water use practices are unsustainable, and environmental factors threaten a water supply heavily burdened by increased demand. As the demand for water outstrips the supply, the stage is set for what Jared Diamond would call a collapse. How will we respond? When we needed more water in the past, we built a dam, dug a canal, or drilled a well. With some exceptions, these options are no longer viable due to a paucity of sites, dwindling supplies, escalating costs, and environmental objections. Instead, we are entering an era in which demand for new water will be satisfied by reallocating and conserving existing sources. The current water rights structure is the outcome of historical forces that conferred great wealth and power along with the water. The solution to tomorrow's water shortages will require creative answers to challenging issues of equity, community, and economics

Pricing for Scarcity

In many areas where water is not abundant, water pricing schedules contain significant nonlinearities. Existing pricing literature establishes that efficient schedules will depend on demand and supply characteristics. However, most empirical studies show that actual pricing schemes have little to do with theoretical efficiency results. In particular, there are very few models recommending increasing blocks, whereas we present evidence that this type of tariff structure is abundantly used. Water managers often defend increasing blocks, both as a means to benefit smaller users and as a way to signal scarcity. Naturally, in the presence of water scarcity the true cost of water increases due to the emergence of a scarcity cost. In this paper, we incorporate the scarcity cost associated with insufficient water availability into the optimal tariff design in several different models. We show that when both demand and costs respond to climate factors, increasing marginal prices may come about as a combined result of scarcity and customer heterogeneity under specific conditions. We also investigate the effect that rising water scarcity in the long run can have on the steady-state amount of capital invested in water storage and supply infrastructures and obtain some results that are consistent with the static models.water pricing; nonlinear pricing; increasing block tariffs; water scarcity

Designing Water Conservation Policies That Match Sense With Cents: A Case Study Approach

As Georgia increasingly faces the strains imposed by water scarcity, there is growing interest in water conservation programs as a means for dealing with the scarcity problem. There are many types of residential water use conservation programs found in communities across the United States. An important question then becomes: is there one, or possible one set, of conservation policies that apply to all conditions of water scarcity faced by communities with water scarcity problems -- i.e., does a "one size fits all" approach to the design of conservation programs make good sense?In an effort to address this question, we conduct case studies of two cities that face very different water scarcity conditions: Albuquerque, New Mexico, and Phoenix, Arizona. In Albuquerque, where alternative sources of water are very expensive, we find a wide range of incentive-based conservation programs as well as aggressive public outreach and education programs. In Phoenix, where alternative water supplies are relatively inexpensive, incentive-based programs have been rejected; the City relies solely on public outreach and education programs.Examination of the manner in which these two cities have designed their residential water conservation programs provides a clear manifestation of the importance of a government giving close consideration to the benefits and costs associated with any particular conservation program design -- the importance of considering the extent to which the expenditure of "cents" makes good public policy "sense." Such an approach is highly recommended by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and is a basic tool that has been used in U.S. cities whose conservation programs are widely recognized as being exceptionally effective. These observations then raise questions as to the efficacy of state-wide policies requiring, for example, restrictions on outdoor water use in all communities in a state. Our study suggests that Georgia's citizens may well be better served by the adoption of policies designed to "fit" the particular circumstances of water scarcity that is faced by communities affected by the policy. Working Paper Number 2005-00

Water Scarcity and Virtual Water Trade in the Mediterranean

Virtual water trade refers to the implicit content of water in the production of goods and services. When trade is undertaken, there is an implicit exchange of water. Furthermore, when water gets scarce, water intensive goods become more expensive to produce and the economy compensates through higher water imports.This paper is about applying the concept of virtual water to the problem of future water scarcity in the Mediterranean area, also induced by the climate change. The aim is assessing to what extent water trade is a viable adaptation option to the problem of water scarcity. To this end, a computable general equilibrium model is extended with satellite data on sectoral water consumption, and used to assess future scenarios of water availability.It is found that virtual trade may curb the negative effect of water scarcity, yet the consequences in terms of income and welfare remain quite significant, especially for some regions.Computable General Equilibrium Models, Water, Virtual Water, Water Scarcity, Climate Change

Water and Economic Growth

Several hydrological studies forecast a global problem of water scarcity. This raises the question as to whether increasing water scarcity may impose constraints on the growth of countries. The influence of water utilization on economic growth is depicted through a growth model that includes this congestible public good as a productive input for private producers. Growth is negatively affected by the government's appropriation of output to supply water but positively influenced by the contribution of increased water use to capital productivity, leading to an inverted-U relationship between economic growth and the rate of water utilization. Crosscountry estimations confirm this relationship and suggest that for most economies current rates of freshwater utilization are not yet constraining growth. However, for a handful of countries, moderate or extreme water scarcity may affect economic growth adversely. Nevertheless, even for water-scarce countries, there appears to be little evidence that there are severe diminishing returns to allocating more output to provide water, thus resulting in falling income per capita. These results suggest caution over the claims of some hydrological-based studies of a widespread global "water crisis".Congestible public goods, cross-country regressions, economic growth, freshwater, water scarcity.

Cities versus agriculture: revisiting intersectoral water transfers, potential gains and conflicts

Water scarcity / Water demand / Water transfer / Water use / Water supply / Water allocation / Environmental effects / Water market

Research contribution to the World Water Vision

Water management / Groundwater / Water scarcity / Water storage / Water supply / Water demand / Productivity / Poverty / Gender / Forecasting