Tackling Daughter Deficits in Tamil Nadu, India

A well-known demographic feature in several East and South Asian countries is the continuing decline in the proportion of girls to boys. In India, till recently, the skewed sex ratio was treated as a Northern and Western Indian phenomenon. However, analysis of the 2001 Census shows that some of the districts with the most unbalanced sex ratios lie in the Southern state of Tamil Nadu. Notwithstanding its recent addition to the list of states exhibiting daughter deficit, the state has pioneered initiatives to prevent daughter elimination and to measure daughter deficit. The availability of district-level panel data on infant mortality and sex ratio at birth covering the years 1996-1999 and 2003, periods which may be characterized by sharp differences in programs and initiatives to reduce daughter elimination combined with spatial variation in these programs, provides an unusual opportunity to identify the causal effect of interventions on both, pre- and post-birth daughter deficit. We find evidence of daughter deficit in at least half the state’s districts with a majority of the deficit (60 to 70 percent) occurring before birth, potentially due to sex selective abortion as compared to after birth due to female infanticide and neglect. The temporal analysis over the period 1996-1999 and 2003, shows a 46 percent decline in post-birth deficit, without a corresponding increase in pre-birth deficit. Our difference-in-differences estimates suggest that at least 79 percent of the decline in post-birth deficit may be attributed to the set of policy interventions pursued by the state and civil society actors.

Essays on the contextual determinants of demographic processes and family dynamics

This thesis consists of three self-contained articles studying whether and how different social contexts shape population and family dynamics. In the first article, I retest the Trivers–Willard hypothesis, which argues for a negative correlation between maternal stress and sex ratio at birth (SRB), with 243 years of time series data from Sweden. I find no supportive evidence for the hypothesis because the associations of SRB with most of the covariates used as proxies for maternal stress are not statistically significant, and in many cases the level of maternal stress is indeed positively correlated with SRB. In the second article, I exploit quasi-experimental variations in the duration of exposure to a school stipend project to identify the effect of maternal education on child mortality in Bangladesh. Using birth history data from the Demographic and Health Surveys, I find that an additional year of maternal schooling reduces both under-five and infant mortality by about 20%. I also document a number of mechanisms, including greater wealth and literacy, positive assortative mating, lower fertility, delayed marriage and childbearing, greater health-related knowledge, better health-seeking behaviours, and female empowerment, but not female employment. In the third article, I combine individual-level data from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey and province-level data on wartime bombing to assess the long-term impact of the Vietnam War on Vietnamese women's attitudes towards intimate partner violence (IPV). To establish a causal link, I use a province's distance to the arbitrarily drawn border between North Vietnam and South Vietnam as an instrument for bombing intensity in that province. I find that women living in provinces that were heavily bombed during the Vietnam War are more likely to accept IPV, reflecting the normalisation of and desensitisation to violence in the private sphere among those who were exposed to conflict violence

Will the Explosive Growth of China Continue?

The role of China in the world economy is constantly growing. In particular we observe that it plays more and more important role in the support of theworld economic growth (as well as high prices of certain very important commodities). In the meantime the perspectives of the Chinese economy (as well as possible fates of the Chinese society) remain unclear, whereas respective forecasts look rather contradictory. That is why the search for new aspects and modes of analysis of possible development of China turns out to be rather important for the forecasting of global futures. This article employs a combination of scientific methods that imply (a) the analysis at the level of Chinese economic model; (b) the analysis at regional level (at this level the Chinese economic model is compared with the regional East Asian model); (c) the analysis at the global level that relies on the modified world-system approach that allows to answer the question whether China will replace the USA as the global leader. It is important that the analysis is conducted simultaneously in economic, social, demographic, and political dimensions. As regards the analysis of specific features of the Chinese model as an especial type of the East Asian model (that is based on the export orientation, capital & technology importation, as well as cheap labor force), we note as organic features of the Chinese model the totalitarian power of the Communist Party and the immenseness of resources. As regards special features of the Chinese model, we note (in addition to “cheap ecology” and cheap labor force) and emphasize that China has a multilevel (in a way unique) system of growth driving forces, where, as opposed to developed states, the dominant role belongs not to native private capital, but to state corporations, local authorities and foreign business. This explains the peculiarities of the Chinese investment (or rather overinvestment), which determines high growth rate up to a very significant degree. A unique feature of the Chinese model is the competition of provinces and territories for investments and high growth indicators. As regards perspectives of the global hegemony of China, we intend to demonstrate that, on the one hand, economic and political positions of China will strengthen in the forthcoming decades, but, on the other hand, China, assuming all possible future success, will be unable to take the USA position in the World System. We believe that in a direct connection with the development of globalization processes the hegemony cycle pattern is likely to come to its end, which will lead to the World System reconfiguration and the emergence of its new structure that will allow the World System to continue its further development without a hegemon. Finally, the article describes some possible scenarios of the development of China. We demonstrate that China could hardly avoid serious difficulties and critical situations (including those connected with demographic problems); however, there could be different scenarios of how China will deal with the forthcoming crisis. We also come to the conclusion that it would be better for China to achieve a slowdown to moderate growth rates (that would allow China to go through the forthcoming complex transition period with less losses) than to try to return at any cost to explosive growth rates attested in the 2000s

EDGAR-HTAP: a Harmonized Gridded Air Pollution Emission Dataset Based on National Inventories

On the global scale the harmonization and improvement of emission inventories is imperative to get consolidated estimates on formation of global air pollution, and it’s influence on human health and climate, and so on the benefit of future policies combating these air pollution aspects. The EDGAR-HTAP project compiled a global emission dataset with annual inventories for CH4, NMVOC, CO, SO2, NOx, NH3, PM10, PM2.5, BC and OC and covering the period 2000-2005 using, to the extent possible, official or scientific inventories at the national or regional scale that are likely to be acceptable for policy makers in each region of the world. This compilation of different official inventories from EMEP, UNFCCC, EPA for USA, GAINS for China and REAS was first gap-filled with global emission data of EDGARv4.1. The IPCC code or UNFCCC’s Common Reporting Format, is used as key for harmonizing the data at sector level. Next, the resulting emissions by country and sector were allocated to a 0.1º × 0.1º grid consistently using the EDGARv4.1 proxy data. The emissions of EDGAR-HTAP were compared with the emission inventory used for the Representative Concentration Pathways for the next IPCC Assessment Report Differences between the national inventories and other bottom-up estimates shows the impact of using higher tier methods and/or country-specific emission factors for compiling a national inventory. Weaknesses in the official emission reports in the EMEP domain were in particular found for diffusive sources. A paradigm of high quality emission inventories consists in scoring high for IPCC’s ‘T-A-C-CC- A’ (Transparency –Accuracy- Consistency – Comparability –Completeness) principles. Weaknesses remain in the coherency across borders between different national inventories, in particular when using different datasets applying different inventorying techniques. Therefore the EDGAR-HTAP_V1 can not be considered as a consistent global time series dataset, but can be recommended as a summary with indicative national totals subject to emission reduction policies.JRC.H.2 - Air and Climat

Constraining Governments: New indices of vertical, horizontal and diagonal accountability

Accountability - constraints on the government’s use of political power - is one of the cornerstones of good governance. However, conceptual stretching and a lack of reliable measures have limited cross-national research and comparisons regarding the role of both accountability writ large and its different sub-types. To address this research gap, we use the V-Dem dataset and Bayesian statistical models to develop new ways to conceptualize and measure accountability and its core dimensions. We provide indices capturing the extent to which governments are accountable to citizens (vertical accountability), other state institutions (horizontal accountability) and the media and civil society (diagonal accountability), as well as an aggregate index that incorporates the three sub-types. These indices cover virtually all countries from 1900 to today. We demonstrate the validity of our new measures by analyzing trends from key countries, as well as by demonstrating that the measures are positively related to development outcomes such as health and education.This research project was supported by Riksbankens Jubileumsfond, Grant M13-0559:1, PI: Staffan I. Lindberg, V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg, Sweden; by Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation to Wallenberg Academy Fellow Staffan I. Lindberg, Grant 2013.0166, V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg, Sweden; as well as by internal grants from the Vice-Chancellor’s office, the Dean of the College of Social Sciences, and the Department of Political Science at University of Gothenburg. We performed simulations and other computational tasks using resources provided by the Notre Dame Center for Research Computing (CRC) through the High Performance Computing section and the Swedish National Infrastructure for Computing (SNIC) at the National Supercomputer Centre in Sweden, SNIC 2016/1-382 and 2017/1-68. We specifically acknowledge the assistance of In-Saeng Suh at CRC and Johan Raber at SNIC in facilitating our use of their respective systems

Estimation and probabilistic projection of levels and trends in the sex ratio at birth in seven provinces of Nepal from 1980 to 2050: a Bayesian modeling approach

Background The sex ratio at birth (SRB; ratio of male to female births) in Nepal has been reported around the normal level on the national level. However, the national SRB could mask the disparity within the country. Given the demographic and cultural heterogeneities in Nepal, it is crucial to model Nepal SRB on the subnational level. Prior studies on subnational SRB in Nepal are mostly based on reporting observed values from surveys and census, and no study has provided probabilistic projections. We aim to estimate and project SRB for the seven provinces of Nepal from 1980 to 2050 using a Bayesian modeling approach. Methods We compiled an extensive database on provincial SRB of Nepal, consisting 2001, 2006, 2011, and 2016 Nepal Demographic and Health Surveys and 2011 Census. We adopted a Bayesian hierarchical time series model to estimate and project the provincial SRB, with a focus on modelling the potential SRB imbalance. Results In 2016, the highest SRB is estimated in Province 5 (Lumbini Pradesh) at 1.102, corresponding to 110.2 male births per 100 female births, with a 95% credible interval (1.044, 1.127) and the lowest SRB is in Province 2 at 1.053 (1.035, 1.109). The SRB imbalance probabilities in all provinces are generally low and vary from 16% in Province 2 to 81% in Province 5 (Lumbini Pradesh). SRB imbalances are estimated to have begun at the earliest in 2001 in Province 5 (Lumbini Pradesh) with a 95% credible interval (1992, 2022) and the latest in 2017 (1998, 2040) in Province 2. We project SRB in all provinces to begin converging back to the national baseline in the mid-2030s. By 2050, the SRBs in all provinces are projected to be around the SRB baseline level. Conclusions Our findings imply that the majority of provinces in Nepal have low risks of SRB imbalance for the period 1980–2016. However, we identify a few provinces with higher probabilities of having SRB inflation. The projected SRB is an important illustration of potential future prenatal sex discrimination and shows the need to monitor SRB in provinces with higher possibilities of SRB imbalance

The impacts of profound gender discrimination on the survival of girls and women in son-preference countries - A systematic review.

Amartya Sen first used the phrase 'missing women' to describe a survival disadvantage for women exposed to extreme gender discrimination in son-preference countries. In 1989 he estimated that, despite a biological survival advantage for females, there were 100 million fewer women in Asia and north Africa than expected. He blamed corrosive gender discrimination restricting the resources needed for survival. This systematic review examined demographic evidence on the impacts of profound gender discrimination on the survival of girls and women in son-preference countries. Thirty-four included studies provided consistent evidence of lower-than-expected female survival in 15 societies. Male-to-female sex ratios rose particularly in China and India between the 1980s and 2010s, despite general improvements in female mortality. High sex ratios in South Korea, however, returned to biologically normal levels. The number of 'missing women' rose steadily from 61 million in 1970 to 126 million in 2010 and was predicted to continue to rise until 2035. The number of 'missing women' in the world increased in relative and absolute terms between 1980 and 2020. Profound discrimination reduces female survival at every stage of life. Future research is needed to understand the complete pathways and mechanisms leading to poorer survival and the major policy drivers of these trends to devise the best possible ways of preventing the tragedy of 'missing women'

The IMF and precautionary lending: An empirical evaluation of the selectivity and effectiveness of the flexible credit line. National Bank of Belgium Working Paper No. 323

This paper provides an empirical evaluation of the Flexible Credit Line (FCL), the IMF's prime precautionary lending instrument since 2009 to which so far only three emerging market economies have subscribed: Mexico, Colombia and Poland. We consider both questions of selectivity and effectiveness: first, which factors explain the three FCL countries' participation in such arrangements? And second, to which extent have the FCL arrangements delivered on their promise of boosting market confidence in their respective users? Based on a probit analysis we show that FCL selectivity can be explained by both demand- and supply-side factors. The probability of participation in the FCL was greater in countries that experienced larger exchange market pressures prior to the creation of the instrument, that had lower bond spreads and inflation, that accounted for higher shares in US exports, and that exhibited a higher propensity of making political concessions to the US. Our estimation of the effects of the FCL employs the ‘synthetic control’ methodology, a novel counterfactual approach. We find evidence for some but not spectacular beneficial effects on sovereign bond spreads and gross capital inflows in FCL countries. Overall, our results suggest that any economic stigma eligible countries still attach to entry into an FCL arrangement is unwarranted. Conversely, the apparent link of FCL participation with US interests may not be conducive to overcoming political stigma