47,587 research outputs found
Linear estimation in Krein spaces. Part II. Applications
We have shown that several interesting problems in H∞-filtering, quadratic game theory, and risk sensitive control and estimation follow as special cases of the Krein-space linear estimation theory developed in Part I. We show that all these problems can be cast into the problem of calculating the stationary point of certain second-order forms, and that by considering the appropriate state space models and error Gramians, we can use the Krein-space estimation theory to calculate the stationary points and study their properties. The approach discussed here allows for interesting generalizations, such as finite memory adaptive filtering with varying sliding patterns
Combining long memory and level shifts in modeling and forecasting the volatility of asset returns
We propose a parametric state space model of asset return volatility with an accompanying estimation and forecasting framework that allows for ARFIMA dynamics, random level shifts and measurement errors. The Kalman filter is used to construct the state-augmented likelihood function and subsequently to generate forecasts, which are mean- and path-corrected. We apply our model to eight daily volatility series constructed from both high-frequency and daily returns. Full sample parameter estimates reveal that random level shifts are present in all series. Genuine long memory is present in high-frequency measures of volatility whereas there is little remaining dynamics in the volatility measures constructed using daily returns. From extensive forecast evaluations, we find that our ARFIMA model with random level shifts consistently belongs to the 10% Model Confidence Set across a variety of forecast horizons, asset classes, and volatility measures. The gains in forecast accuracy can be very pronounced, especially at longer horizons
Combining long memory and level shifts in modeling and forecasting the volatility of asset returns
We propose a parametric state space model of asset return volatility with an accompanying estimation and forecasting framework that allows for ARFIMA dynamics, random level shifts and measurement errors. The Kalman filter is used to construct the state-augmented likelihood function and subsequently to generate forecasts, which are mean and path-corrected. We apply our model to eight daily volatility series constructed from both high-frequency and daily returns. Full sample parameter estimates reveal that random level shifts are present in all series. Genuine long memory is present in most high-frequency measures of volatility, whereas there is little remaining dynamics in the volatility measures constructed using daily returns. From extensive forecast evaluations, we find that our ARFIMA model with random level shifts consistently belongs to the 10% Model Confidence Set across a variety of forecast horizons, asset classes and volatility measures. The gains in forecast accuracy can be very pronounced, especially at longer horizons
Dimension reduction for systems with slow relaxation
We develop reduced, stochastic models for high dimensional, dissipative
dynamical systems that relax very slowly to equilibrium and can encode long
term memory. We present a variety of empirical and first principles approaches
for model reduction, and build a mathematical framework for analyzing the
reduced models. We introduce the notions of universal and asymptotic filters to
characterize `optimal' model reductions for sloppy linear models. We illustrate
our methods by applying them to the practically important problem of modeling
evaporation in oil spills.Comment: 48 Pages, 13 figures. Paper dedicated to the memory of Leo Kadanof
Universal discrete-time reservoir computers with stochastic inputs and linear readouts using non-homogeneous state-affine systems
A new class of non-homogeneous state-affine systems is introduced for use in
reservoir computing. Sufficient conditions are identified that guarantee first,
that the associated reservoir computers with linear readouts are causal,
time-invariant, and satisfy the fading memory property and second, that a
subset of this class is universal in the category of fading memory filters with
stochastic almost surely uniformly bounded inputs. This means that any
discrete-time filter that satisfies the fading memory property with random
inputs of that type can be uniformly approximated by elements in the
non-homogeneous state-affine family.Comment: 41 page
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