24 research outputs found
Variational Probabilistic Inference and the QMR-DT Network
We describe a variational approximation method for efficient inference in
large-scale probabilistic models. Variational methods are deterministic
procedures that provide approximations to marginal and conditional
probabilities of interest. They provide alternatives to approximate inference
methods based on stochastic sampling or search. We describe a variational
approach to the problem of diagnostic inference in the `Quick Medical
Reference' (QMR) network. The QMR network is a large-scale probabilistic
graphical model built on statistical and expert knowledge. Exact probabilistic
inference is infeasible in this model for all but a small set of cases. We
evaluate our variational inference algorithm on a large set of diagnostic test
cases, comparing the algorithm to a state-of-the-art stochastic sampling
method
The Design and Implementation of a Bayesian CAD Modeler for Robotic Applications
We present a Bayesian CAD modeler for robotic applications. We address the problem of taking into account the propagation of geometric uncertainties when solving inverse geometric problems. The proposed method may be seen as a generalization of constraint-based approaches in which we explicitly model geometric uncertainties. Using our methodology, a geometric constraint is expressed as a probability distribution on the system parameters and the sensor measurements, instead of a simple equality or inequality. To solve geometric problems in this framework, we propose an original resolution method able to adapt to problem complexity.
Using two examples, we show how to apply our approach by providing simulation results using our modeler
Truncating the loop series expansion for Belief Propagation
Recently, M. Chertkov and V.Y. Chernyak derived an exact expression for the
partition sum (normalization constant) corresponding to a graphical model,
which is an expansion around the Belief Propagation solution. By adding
correction terms to the BP free energy, one for each "generalized loop" in the
factor graph, the exact partition sum is obtained. However, the usually
enormous number of generalized loops generally prohibits summation over all
correction terms. In this article we introduce Truncated Loop Series BP
(TLSBP), a particular way of truncating the loop series of M. Chertkov and V.Y.
Chernyak by considering generalized loops as compositions of simple loops. We
analyze the performance of TLSBP in different scenarios, including the Ising
model, regular random graphs and on Promedas, a large probabilistic medical
diagnostic system. We show that TLSBP often improves upon the accuracy of the
BP solution, at the expense of increased computation time. We also show that
the performance of TLSBP strongly depends on the degree of interaction between
the variables. For weak interactions, truncating the series leads to
significant improvements, whereas for strong interactions it can be
ineffective, even if a high number of terms is considered.Comment: 31 pages, 12 figures, submitted to Journal of Machine Learning
Researc
Bayesian robot Programming
We propose a new method to program robots based on Bayesian inference and learning. The capacities of this programming method are demonstrated through a succession of increasingly complex experiments. Starting from the learning of simple reactive behaviors, we present instances of behavior combinations, sensor fusion, hierarchical behavior composition, situation recognition and temporal sequencing. This series of experiments comprises the steps in the incremental development of a complex robot program. The advantages and drawbacks of this approach are discussed along with these different experiments and summed up as a conclusion. These different robotics programs may be seen as an illustration of probabilistic programming applicable whenever one must deal with problems based on uncertain or incomplete knowledge. The scope of possible applications is obviously much broader than robotics