Multiscale Bayesian State Space Model for Granger Causality Analysis of Brain Signal

Modelling time-varying and frequency-specific relationships between two brain signals is becoming an essential methodological tool to answer heoretical questions in experimental neuroscience. In this article, we propose to estimate a frequency Granger causality statistic that may vary in time in order to evaluate the functional connections between two brain regions during a task. We use for that purpose an adaptive Kalman filter type of estimator of a linear Gaussian vector autoregressive model with coefficients evolving over time. The estimation procedure is achieved through variational Bayesian approximation and is extended for multiple trials. This Bayesian State Space (BSS) model provides a dynamical Granger-causality statistic that is quite natural. We propose to extend the BSS model to include the \`{a} trous Haar decomposition. This wavelet-based forecasting method is based on a multiscale resolution decomposition of the signal using the redundant \`{a} trous wavelet transform and allows us to capture short- and long-range dependencies between signals. Equally importantly it allows us to derive the desired dynamical and frequency-specific Granger-causality statistic. The application of these models to intracranial local field potential data recorded during a psychological experimental task shows the complex frequency based cross-talk between amygdala and medial orbito-frontal cortex. Keywords: \`{a} trous Haar wavelets; Multiple trials; Neuroscience data; Nonstationarity; Time-frequency; Variational methods The published version of this article is Cekic, S., Grandjean, D., Renaud, O. (2018). Multiscale Bayesian state-space model for Granger causality analysis of brain signal. Journal of Applied Statistics. https://doi.org/10.1080/02664763.2018.145581

Towards Building Deep Networks with Bayesian Factor Graphs

We propose a Multi-Layer Network based on the Bayesian framework of the Factor Graphs in Reduced Normal Form (FGrn) applied to a two-dimensional lattice. The Latent Variable Model (LVM) is the basic building block of a quadtree hierarchy built on top of a bottom layer of random variables that represent pixels of an image, a feature map, or more generally a collection of spatially distributed discrete variables. The multi-layer architecture implements a hierarchical data representation that, via belief propagation, can be used for learning and inference. Typical uses are pattern completion, correction and classification. The FGrn paradigm provides great flexibility and modularity and appears as a promising candidate for building deep networks: the system can be easily extended by introducing new and different (in cardinality and in type) variables. Prior knowledge, or supervised information, can be introduced at different scales. The FGrn paradigm provides a handy way for building all kinds of architectures by interconnecting only three types of units: Single Input Single Output (SISO) blocks, Sources and Replicators. The network is designed like a circuit diagram and the belief messages flow bidirectionally in the whole system. The learning algorithms operate only locally within each block. The framework is demonstrated in this paper in a three-layer structure applied to images extracted from a standard data set.Comment: Submitted for journal publicatio

Multiscale Dictionary Learning for Estimating Conditional Distributions

Nonparametric estimation of the conditional distribution of a response given high-dimensional features is a challenging problem. It is important to allow not only the mean but also the variance and shape of the response density to change flexibly with features, which are massive-dimensional. We propose a multiscale dictionary learning model, which expresses the conditional response density as a convex combination of dictionary densities, with the densities used and their weights dependent on the path through a tree decomposition of the feature space. A fast graph partitioning algorithm is applied to obtain the tree decomposition, with Bayesian methods then used to adaptively prune and average over different sub-trees in a soft probabilistic manner. The algorithm scales efficiently to approximately one million features. State of the art predictive performance is demonstrated for toy examples and two neuroscience applications including up to a million features

Dynamic Bayesian Combination of Multiple Imperfect Classifiers

Classifier combination methods need to make best use of the outputs of multiple, imperfect classifiers to enable higher accuracy classifications. In many situations, such as when human decisions need to be combined, the base decisions can vary enormously in reliability. A Bayesian approach to such uncertain combination allows us to infer the differences in performance between individuals and to incorporate any available prior knowledge about their abilities when training data is sparse. In this paper we explore Bayesian classifier combination, using the computationally efficient framework of variational Bayesian inference. We apply the approach to real data from a large citizen science project, Galaxy Zoo Supernovae, and show that our method far outperforms other established approaches to imperfect decision combination. We go on to analyse the putative community structure of the decision makers, based on their inferred decision making strategies, and show that natural groupings are formed. Finally we present a dynamic Bayesian classifier combination approach and investigate the changes in base classifier performance over time.Comment: 35 pages, 12 figure