F-GAMMA: Variability Doppler factors of blazars from multiwavelength monitoring

Recent population studies have shown that the variability Doppler factors can adequately describe blazars as a population. We use the flux density variations found within the extensive radio multi-wavelength datasets of the F-GAMMA program, a total of 10 frequencies from 2.64 up to 142.33 GHz, in order to estimate the variability Doppler factors for 58 $\gamma$-ray bright sources, for 20 of which no variability Doppler factor has been estimated before. We employ specifically designed algorithms in order to obtain a model for each flare at each frequency. We then identify each event and track its evolution through all the available frequencies for each source. This approach allows us to distinguish significant events producing flares from stochastic variability in blazar jets. It also allows us to effectively constrain the variability brightness temperature and hence the variability Doppler factor as well as provide error estimates. Our method can produce the most accurate (16\% error on average) estimates in the literature to date.Comment: 9 pages, 7 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

Day-to-day Variability of Stuttering

Variability has long been known to be a primary feature of the disorder of stuttering (Bloodstein & Bernstein Ratner, 2008; Costello & Ingham, 1984; Yaruss, 1997a, 1997b). Many factors that affect variability have been investigated (Brown, 1937; Johnson & Brown, 1935; Quarrington, Conway, & Siegel, 1962) yet the typical range of variability experienced by speakers remains unknown. This study will examine the speech of six adult speakers in three spontaneous speaking situations and two reading tasks. The frequency, duration, and types of stuttered events that occur on the tasks will be compared within and between speakers. The focus will be on describing variability in stuttering frequency and duration within speakers and attempting to detect consistent patterns between speakers

Variability in non-invasive brain stimulation studies: reasons and results

Non-invasive brain stimulation techniques (NIBS), such as Theta Burst Stimulation (TBS), Paired Associative Stimulation (PAS) and transcranial Direct Current Stimulation (tDCS), are widely used to probe plasticity in the human motor cortex (M1). Although TBS, PAS and tDCS differ in terms of physiological mechanisms responsible for experimentally-induced cortical plasticity, they all share the ability to elicit long-term potentiation (LTP) and depression (LTD) in M1. However, NIBS techniques are all affected by relevant variability in intra- and inter-subject responses. A growing number of factors contributing to NIBS variability have been recently identified and reported. In this review, we have readdressed the issue of variability in human NIBS studies. We have first briefly discussed the physiological mechanisms responsible for TBS, PAS and tDCS-induced cortical plasticity. Then, we have provided statistical measures of intra- and inter-subject variability, as calculated in previous studies. Finally, we have reported in detail known sources of variability by categorizing them into physiological, technical and statistical factors. Improving knowledge about sources of variability could lead to relevant advances in designing new tailored NIBS protocols in physiological and pathological conditions

Long-Term X-ray Spectral Variability in Seyfert 1 Galaxies

Direct time-resolved spectral fitting has been performed on continuous RXTE monitoring of seven Seyfert 1 galaxies in order to study their broadband spectral variability and Fe K alpha variability characteristics on time scales of days to years. Variability in the Fe K alpha line is not detected in some objects but is present in others, e.g., in NGC 3516, NGC 4151 and NGC 5548 there are systematic decreases in line flux by factors of ~2-5 over 3-4 years. The Fe K alpha line varies less strongly than the broadband continuum, but, like the continuum, exhibits stronger variability towards longer time scales. Relatively less model-dependent broadband fractional variability amplitude (Fvar) spectra also show weaker line variability compared to the continuum variability. Comparable systematic long-term decreases in the line and continuum are present in NGC 5548. Overall, however, there is no evidence for correlated variability between the line and continuum, severely challenging models in which the line tracks continuum variations modified only by a light-travel time delay. Local effects such as the formation of an ionized skin at the site of line emission may be relevant. The spectral fitting and Fvar spectra both support spectral softening as continuum flux increases.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ. 29 page

Investigating Cepheid ℓ\ell Carinae's Cycle-to-cycle Variations via Contemporaneous Velocimetry and Interferometry

Baade-Wesselink-type (BW) techniques enable geometric distance measurements of Cepheid variable stars in the Galaxy and the Magellanic clouds. The leading uncertainties involved concern projection factors required to translate observed radial velocities (RVs) to pulsational velocities and recently discovered modulated variability. We carried out an unprecedented observational campaign involving long-baseline interferometry (VLTI/PIONIER) and spectroscopy (Euler/Coralie) to search for modulated variability in the long-period (P $\sim$ 35.5 d) Cepheid Carinae. We determine highly precise angular diameters from squared visibilities and investigate possible differences between two consecutive maximal diameters, $\Delta_{\rm{max}} \Theta$. We characterize the modulated variability along the line-of-sight using 360 high-precision RVs. Here we report tentative evidence for modulated angular variability and confirm cycle-to-cycle differences of $\ell$ Carinae's RV variability. Two successive maxima yield $\Delta_{\rm{max}} \Theta$ = 13.1 $\pm$ 0.7 (stat.) {\mu}as for uniform disk models and 22.5 $\pm$ 1.4 (stat.) {\mu}as (4% of the total angular variation) for limb-darkened models. By comparing new RVs with 2014 RVs we show modulation to vary in strength. Barring confirmation, our results suggest the optical continuum (traced by interferometry) to be differently affected by modulation than gas motions (traced by spectroscopy). This implies a previously unknown time-dependence of projection factors, which can vary by 5% between consecutive cycles of expansion and contraction. Additional interferometric data are required to confirm modulated angular diameter variations. By understanding the origin of modulated variability and monitoring its long-term behavior, we aim to improve the accuracy of BW distances and further the understanding of stellar pulsations.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS. 19 pages, 13 figures, 10 table

Real Exchange Rate Variability: An Empirical Analysis of the Developing Countries Case

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the potential role of monetary and real factors in explaining real exchange rate variability in developing countries. For this purpose two indexes of real effective exchange rate variability that measure short-term and long-term variability were constructed for 30 countries. The results obtained, using a generalized least squares procedures on cross section data, indicate that real exchange rate variability has been affected both by real and monetary factors. In particular it was found that more unstable nominal exchange rate policies were reflected in higher real exchange rate instability in the short-run; more unstable domestic credit policies resulted in higher short-term real exchange rate variability; and more unstable external terms of trade also affected positively the degree of real exchange rate instability.

Blood pressure variability and cardiovascular risk in the PROspective study of pravastatin in the elderly at risk (PROSPER)

Variability in blood pressure predicts cardiovascular disease in young- and middle-aged subjects, but relevant data for older individuals are sparse. We analysed data from the PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER) study of 5804 participants aged 70–82 years with a history of, or risk factors for cardiovascular disease. Visit-to-visit variability in blood pressure (standard deviation) was determined using a minimum of five measurements over 1 year; an inception cohort of 4819 subjects had subsequent in-trial 3 years follow-up; longer-term follow-up (mean 7.1 years) was available for 1808 subjects. Higher systolic blood pressure variability independently predicted long-term follow-up vascular and total mortality (hazard ratio per 5 mmHg increase in standard deviation of systolic blood pressure = 1.2, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.4; hazard ratio 1.1, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.2, respectively). Variability in diastolic blood pressure associated with increased risk for coronary events (hazard ratio 1.5, 95% confidence interval 1.2–1.8 for each 5 mmHg increase), heart failure hospitalisation (hazard ratio 1.4, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.8) and vascular (hazard ratio 1.4, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.7) and total mortality (hazard ratio 1.3, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.5), all in long-term follow-up. Pulse pressure variability was associated with increased stroke risk (hazard ratio 1.2, 95% confidence interval 1.0–1.4 for each 5 mmHg increase), vascular mortality (hazard ratio 1.2, 95% confidence interval 1.0–1.3) and total mortality (hazard ratio 1.1, 95% confidence interval 1.0–1.2), all in long-term follow-up. All associations were independent of respective mean blood pressure levels, age, gender, in-trial treatment group (pravastatin or placebo) and prior vascular disease and cardiovascular disease risk factors. Our observations suggest variability in diastolic blood pressure is more strongly associated with vascular or total mortality than is systolic pressure variability in older high-risk subjects

Among-site variability in the stochastic dynamics of East African coral reefs

Coral reefs are dynamic systems whose composition is highly influenced by unpredictable biotic and abiotic factors. Understanding the spatial scale at which long-term predictions of reef composition can be made will be crucial for guiding conservation efforts. Using a 22-year time series of benthic composition data from 20 reefs on the Kenyan and Tanzanian coast, we studied the long-term behaviour of Bayesian vector autoregressive state-space models for reef dynamics, incorporating among-site variability. We estimate that if there were no among-site variability, the total long-term variability would be approximately one third of its current value. Thus among-site variability contributes more to long-term variability in reef composition than does temporal variability. Individual sites are more predictable than previously thought, and predictions based on current snapshots are informative about long-term properties. Our approach allowed us to identify a subset of possible climate refugia sites with high conservation value, where the long-term probability of coral cover <= 0.1 was very low. Analytical results show that this probability is most strongly influenced by among-site variability and by interactions among benthic components within sites. These findings suggest that conservation initiatives might be successful at the site scale as well as the regional scale.Comment: 97 pages, 49 figure