Predicting popularity of online videos using Support Vector Regression

In this work, we propose a regression method to predict the popularity of an online video based on temporal and visual cues. Our method uses Support Vector Regression with Gaussian Radial Basis Functions. We show that modelling popularity patterns with this approach provides higher and more stable prediction results, mainly thanks to the non-linearity character of the proposed method as well as its resistance against overfitting. We compare our method with the state of the art on datasets containing over 14,000 videos from YouTube and Facebook. Furthermore, we show that results obtained relying only on the early distribution patterns, can be improved by adding social and visual metadata

The Entropy of Attention and Popularity in YouTube Videos

The vast majority of YouTube videos never become popular, languishing in obscurity with few views, no likes, and no comments. We use information theoretical measures based on entropy to examine how time series distributions of common measures of popularity in videos from YouTube's "Trending videos" and "Most recent" video feeds relate to the theoretical concept of attention. While most of the videos in the "Most recent" feed are never popular, some 20% of them have distributions of attention metrics and measures of entropy that are similar to distributions for "Trending videos". We analyze how the 20% of "Most recent" videos that become somewhat popular differ from the 80% that do not, then compare these popular "Most recent" videos to different subsets of "Trending videos" to try to characterize and compare the attention each receives

Tracking Large-Scale Video Remix in Real-World Events

Social information networks, such as YouTube, contains traces of both explicit online interaction (such as "like", leaving a comment, or subscribing to video feed), and latent interactions (such as quoting, or remixing parts of a video). We propose visual memes, or frequently re-posted short video segments, for tracking such latent video interactions at scale. Visual memes are extracted by scalable detection algorithms that we develop, with high accuracy. We further augment visual memes with text, via a statistical model of latent topics. We model content interactions on YouTube with visual memes, defining several measures of influence and building predictive models for meme popularity. Experiments are carried out on with over 2 million video shots from more than 40,000 videos on two prominent news events in 2009: the election in Iran and the swine flu epidemic. In these two events, a high percentage of videos contain remixed content, and it is apparent that traditional news media and citizen journalists have different roles in disseminating remixed content. We perform two quantitative evaluations for annotating visual memes and predicting their popularity. The joint statistical model of visual memes and words outperform a concurrence model, and the average error is ~2% for predicting meme volume and ~17% for their lifespan.Comment: 11 pages, accepted for journal publicatio

Who Watches (and Shares) What on YouTube? And When? Using Twitter to Understand YouTube Viewership

We combine user-centric Twitter data with video-centric YouTube data to analyze who watches and shares what on YouTube. Combination of two data sets, with 87k Twitter users, 5.6mln YouTube videos and 15mln video sharing events, allows rich analysis going beyond what could be obtained with either of the two data sets individually. For Twitter, we generate user features relating to activity, interests and demographics. For YouTube, we obtain video features for topic, popularity and polarization. These two feature sets are combined through sharing events for YouTube URLs on Twitter. This combination is done both in a user-, a video- and a sharing-event-centric manner. For the user-centric analysis, we show how Twitter user features correlate both with YouTube features and with sharing-related features. As two examples, we show urban users are quicker to share than rural users and for some notions of "influence" influential users on Twitter share videos with a higher number of views. For the video-centric analysis, we find a superlinear relation between initial Twitter shares and the final amounts of views, showing the correlated behavior of Twitter. On user impact, we find the total amount of followers of users that shared the video in the first week does not affect its final popularity. However, aggregated user retweet rates serve as a better predictor for YouTube video popularity. For the sharing-centric analysis, we reveal existence of correlated behavior concerning the time between video creation and sharing within certain timescales, showing the time onset for a coherent response, and the time limit after which collective responses are extremely unlikely. We show that response times depend on video category, revealing that Twitter sharing of a video is highly dependent on its content. To the best of our knowledge this is the first large-scale study combining YouTube and Twitter data.Comment: 12 pages, 8 figures and 10 table

On the Dynamics of Social Media Popularity: A YouTube Case Study

Understanding the factors that impact the popularity dynamics of social media can drive the design of effective information services, besides providing valuable insights to content generators and online advertisers. Taking YouTube as case study, we analyze how video popularity evolves since upload, extracting popularity trends that characterize groups of videos. We also analyze the referrers that lead users to videos, correlating them, features of the video and early popularity measures with the popularity trend and total observed popularity the video will experience. Our findings provide fundamental knowledge about popularity dynamics and its implications for services such as advertising and search.Comment: Extended version of a paper published in ACM WSDM 2011. Pre-print of the paper accepted for publication on the ACM Transactions on Internet Tecnolog

Deriving Latent Social Impulses to Determine Longevous Videos

Online video websites receive huge amount of videos daily from users all around the world. How to provide valuable recommendations to viewers is an important task for both video websites and related third parties, such as search engines. Previous work conducted numerous analysis on the view counts of videos, which measure a video's value in terms of popularity. However, the long-lasting value of an online video, namely longevity, is hidden behind the history that a video accumulates its "popularity" through time. Generally speaking, a longevous video tends to constantly draw society's attention. With focus on one of the leading video websites, Youtube, this paper proposes a scoring mechanism quantifying a video's longevity. Evaluating a video's longevity can not only improve a video recommender system, but also help us to discover videos having greater advertising value, as well as adjust a video website's strategy of storing videos to shorten its responding time. In order to accurately quantify longevity, we introduce the concept of latent social impulses and how to use them measure a video's longevity. In order to derive latent social impulses, we view the video website as a digital signal filter and formulate the task as a convex minimization problem. The proposed longevity computation is based on the derived social impulses. Unfortunately, the required information to derive social impulses are not always public, which makes a third party unable to directly evaluate every video's longevity. To solve this problem, we formulate a semi-supervised learning task by using part of videos having known longevity scores to predict the unknown longevity scores. We propose a Gaussian Random Markov model with Loopy Belief Propagation to solve this problem. The conducted experiments on Youtube demonstrate that the proposed method significantly improves the prediction results comparing to baselines.Comment: Accepted by WWW '14 as a poster pape

A Survey of Information Cascade Analysis: Models, Predictions, and Recent Advances

The deluge of digital information in our daily life -- from user-generated content, such as microblogs and scientific papers, to online business, such as viral marketing and advertising -- offers unprecedented opportunities to explore and exploit the trajectories and structures of the evolution of information cascades. Abundant research efforts, both academic and industrial, have aimed to reach a better understanding of the mechanisms driving the spread of information and quantifying the outcome of information diffusion. This article presents a comprehensive review and categorization of information popularity prediction methods, from feature engineering and stochastic processes, through graph representation, to deep learning-based approaches. Specifically, we first formally define different types of information cascades and summarize the perspectives of existing studies. We then present a taxonomy that categorizes existing works into the aforementioned three main groups as well as the main subclasses in each group, and we systematically review cutting-edge research work. Finally, we summarize the pros and cons of existing research efforts and outline the open challenges and opportunities in this field.Comment: Author version, with 43 pages, 9 figures, and 11 table

Forecasting Popularity of Videos using Social Media

This paper presents a systematic online prediction method (Social-Forecast) that is capable to accurately forecast the popularity of videos promoted by social media. Social-Forecast explicitly considers the dynamically changing and evolving propagation patterns of videos in social media when making popularity forecasts, thereby being situation and context aware. Social-Forecast aims to maximize the forecast reward, which is defined as a tradeoff between the popularity prediction accuracy and the timeliness with which a prediction is issued. The forecasting is performed online and requires no training phase or a priori knowledge. We analytically bound the prediction performance loss of Social-Forecast as compared to that obtained by an omniscient oracle and prove that the bound is sublinear in the number of video arrivals, thereby guaranteeing its short-term performance as well as its asymptotic convergence to the optimal performance. In addition, we conduct extensive experiments using real-world data traces collected from the videos shared in RenRen, one of the largest online social networks in China. These experiments show that our proposed method outperforms existing view-based approaches for popularity prediction (which are not context-aware) by more than 30% in terms of prediction rewards

TrendLearner: Early Prediction of Popularity Trends of User Generated Content

We here focus on the problem of predicting the popularity trend of user generated content (UGC) as early as possible. Taking YouTube videos as case study, we propose a novel two-step learning approach that: (1) extracts popularity trends from previously uploaded objects, and (2) predicts trends for new content. Unlike previous work, our solution explicitly addresses the inherent tradeoff between prediction accuracy and remaining interest in the content after prediction, solving it on a per-object basis. Our experimental results show great improvements of our solution over alternatives, and its applicability to improve the accuracy of state-of-the-art popularity prediction methods.Comment: To appear at Elsevier Information Sciences Journa

Popularity and Quality in Social News Aggregators: A Study of Reddit and Hacker News

In this paper we seek to understand the relationship between the online popularity of an article and its intrinsic quality. Prior experimental work suggests that the relationship between quality and popularity can be very distorted due to factors like social influence bias and inequality in visibility. We conduct a study of popularity on two different social news aggregators, Reddit and Hacker News. We define quality as the relative number of votes an article would have received if each article was shown, in a bias-free way, to an equal number of users. We propose a simple poisson regression method to estimate this quality metric from time-series voting data. We validate our methods on data from Reddit and Hacker News, as well the experimental data from prior work. This method works well even though the collected data is subject to common social media biases. Using these estimates, we find that popularity on Reddit and Hacker News is a stronger reflection of intrinsic quality than expected