Modeling Monetary Policy

We develop a macroeconomic framework where money is supplied against only few eligible securities in open market operations. The relationship between the policy rate, expected inflation and consumption growth is affected by money market conditions, i.e. the varying liquidity value of eligible assets and the associated risk. This induces a liquidity premium, which explains the observed systematic wedge between the policy rate and consumption Euler interest rate that standard models equate. It further implies a dampened response of consumption to policy rate shocks that is humpshaped when we account for realistic central bank transfers and the dynamics of bond holdings.Monetary Policy, Open market operations, Liquiditypremium, Money market rate, Consumption Eulerrate, Monetary policy transmission

FINANCIAL REGULATION AND ENDOGENOUS MACROECONOMIC CRISES

3noWe explore the effects of banking regulation on financial stability and macroeconomic dynamics in an agent-based computational model. In particular, we study the minimum level of capital and the lending concentration towards a single counterpart. We show that an overly tight regulation is dangerous because it reduces credit availability. By contrast, overly loose constraints, associated with a high payout ratio, increase financial fragility that, in turn, damage the real economy. Simulation results support the introduction of regulatory rules aimed at assuring an adequate capitalization of banks, such as the Capital Conservation Buffer (Basel III reform).noneopenRiccetti, Luca; Russo, Alberto; Gallegati, MauroRiccetti, Luca; Russo, Alberto; Gallegati, Maur

Financial sector pro-cyclicality: lessons from the crisis

We analyze the main forces affecting financial system pro-cyclicality (the fact that developments in the financial sector can amplify business cycle fluctuations). We first review some major structural developments in financial markets that may influence pro-cyclicality and that have been overlooked in earlier analyses. We then examine three issues that are center stage in the current debate: capital regulation, accounting standards and managers’ incentives. After reviewing the institutional set-up and the key mechanisms at work, we critically examine a series of proposals designed to mitigate pro-cyclicality.pro-cyclicality, financial accelerator, capital requirements, leverage, accounting standards, incentives

International Liquidity Management: Sterilization Policy in Illiquid Financial Markets

During the booms that precede crises in emerging economies, policy makers often struggle to limit capital flows and their expansionary consequences. The main policy tool for this task is sterilization - essentially a swap of international reserves for public bonds. However, there is an extensive debate on the effectiveness of this policy, with many arguing that it may be counterproductive once the (over-) reaction of the private sector is considered. But what forces account for the private sector's reaction remain largely unexplained. In this paper we provide a model to discuss these issues. We emphasize the international liquidity management aspect of sterilization over the traditional monetary one, a re-focus that seems warranted when the main concern is external crisis prevention. We first demonstrate that policies to smooth expansion in anticipation of downturns can be Pareto improving in economies where domestic financial markets are underdeveloped. We then discuss the implementation and effectiveness of this policy via sterilization. The greatest risk of policy arises in situations where policy is most needed - that is , when financial markets are illiquid. Our mechanism is akin to the implicit bailout' problem, although the central bank acts non-selectively and only intervenes through open markets in our model. Illiquidity replaces corruption and ineptitude. In addition to an appreciation of the currency and the emergence of a quasi-fiscal deficit, the private sector's reaction to sterilization may lead to an expansion rather than the desired contraction in aggregate demand or nontradeables investment and to a bias toward short term capital inflows. The main insights extend to international liquidity management issues more generally.

Linkages between the Financial and the Real Sector of the Economy: A Literature Survey

This document reviews the literature on the relationship between financial markets and the real economy. In the light of the recent financial crises, we focus on channels that are likely to be important in times of financial stress. Some channels�are governed by balance sheet effects�like the Financial Accelerator and the Bank Lending Channel. We discuss the significance of these channels in the light of empirical evidence and try to extract their quantitative importance from the literature. Both channels seem to have played an important role in the aftermath of the crisis. Further, we discuss the role of trade finance in the collapse in world trade following the financial crisis 2007-2009. While finance is important for trade, the literature is not conclusive on whether finance was also the reason for the observed collapse. Naturally, risk is important during a financial crisis. Taking a look at risk channels, we find risk also to play an important role in feedback loops between finance and the real economy. The theoretical and empirical evidence found in the literature appears to be useful in explaining the severe and long-lasting effects of the recent financial crisis.

Managing Volatility and Crises: A Practitioner's Guide Overview

This overview introduces and summarizes the findings of a practical volume on managing volatility and crises. The interest in these topics stems from the growing recognition that non-linearities tend to magnify the impact of economic volatility leading to large output and economic growth costs, especially in poor countries. In these circumstances, good times do not offset the negative impact of bad times, leading to permanent negative effects. Such asymmetry is often reinforced by incomplete markets, sovereign risk, divisive politics, inefficient taxation, procyclical fiscal policy and weak financial market institutions factors that are more problematic in developing countries. The same fundamental phenomena that make it difficult to cope with volatility also drive crises. Hence, the volume also focuses on the prevention and management of crises. It is a user-friendly compilation of empirical and policy results aimed at development policy practitioners divided into three modules: (i) the basics of volatility and its impact on growth and poverty; (ii) managing volatility along thematic lines, including financial sector and commodity price volatility; and (iii) management and prevention of macroeconomic crises, including a cross-country study, lessons from the debt defaults of the 1980s and 1990s and case studies on Argentina and Russia.

Monetary policy and large crises in a financial accelerator agent-based model

An accommodating monetary policy followed by a sudden increase of the short term interest rate often leads to a bubble burst and to an economic slowdown. Through the implementation of an Agent Based Model with a financial accelerator mechanism we are able to study the relationship between monetary policy and large-scale crisis events. A two-step computational approach is proposed which performs (i) a pattern search of \u201cdouble dip\u201d episodes and (ii) counter-factual simulations implementing unconventional monetary policy. The main results can be summarized as follow: a) sudden and sharp increases of the policy rate can generate recessions; b) after a crisis, returning too soon and too quickly to a normal monetary policy regime can generate a \u201cdouble dip\u201d recession, while c) keeping the short term interest rate anchored to the zero lower bound in the short run can successfully avoid a further slowdown

Monetary policy and large crises in a financial accelerator agent-based model

none4An accommodating monetary policy followed by a sudden increase of the short term interest rate often leads to a bubble burst and to an economic slowdown. Through the implementation of an Agent Based Model with a financial accelerator mechanism we are able to study the relationship between monetary policy and large-scale crisis events. A two-step computational approach is proposed which performs (i) a pattern search of “double dip” episodes and (ii) counter-factual simulations implementing unconventional monetary policy. The main results can be summarized as follow: a) sudden and sharp increases of the policy rate can generate recessions; b) after a crisis, returning too soon and too quickly to a normal monetary policy regime can generate a “double dip” recession, while c) keeping the short term interest rate anchored to the zero lower bound in the short run can successfully avoid a further slowdown.openGiri, Federico; Riccetti, Luca; Russo, Alberto; Gallegati, MauroGiri, Federico; Riccetti, Luca; Russo, Alberto; Gallegati, Maur

Lender of last resort: A new role for an old instrument

The global financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis in Europe have redefined the functions of the lender of last resort (LOLR). First, they have placed the LOLR at the intersection of monetary policy, fiscal policy, supervision, and regulation of the banking industry. Second, they have given regulatory authorities the additional responsibility of monitoring the interbank market. Third, they have extended the LOLR role to cover the possible bailout of non-bank institutions, including sovereign countries. This chapter explores the link between the theoretical models of the banking industry and the unprecedented policies displayed in the aftermath of the crisis. We begin by examining the justification of LOLR in a simplified framework where only liquidity shocks arise, to move to a setting where liquidity shocks cannot be disentangled from solvency ones. We then study contagion in the interbank market and systemic risk, two pathologies due to the imperfections of the financial markets, and we discuss the issues raised by the implementation of the LOLR policy within the safety net