SM2RAIN–ASCAT (2007–2018): global daily satellite rainfall data from ASCAT soil moisture observations

Abstract. Long-term gridded precipitation products are crucial for several applications in hydrology, agriculture and climate sciences. Currently available precipitation products suffer from space and time inconsistency due to the non-uniform density of ground networks and the difficulties in merging multiple satellite sensors. The recent "bottom-up" approach that exploits satellite soil moisture observations for estimating rainfall through the SM2RAIN (Soil Moisture to Rain) algorithm is suited to build a consistent rainfall data record as a single polar orbiting satellite sensor is used. Here we exploit the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) on board three Meteorological Operational (MetOp) satellites, launched in 2006, 2012, and 2018, as part of the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) Polar System programme. The continuity of the scatterometer sensor is ensured until the mid-2040s through the MetOp Second Generation Programme. Therefore, by applying the SM2RAIN algorithm to ASCAT soil moisture observations, a long-term rainfall data record will be obtained, starting in 2007 and lasting until the mid-2040s. The paper describes the recent improvements in data pre-processing, SM2RAIN algorithm formulation, and data post-processing for obtaining the SM2RAIN–ASCAT quasi-global (only over land) daily rainfall data record at a 12.5 km spatial sampling from 2007 to 2018. The quality of the SM2RAIN–ASCAT data record is assessed on a regional scale through comparison with high-quality ground networks in Europe, the United States, India, and Australia. Moreover, an assessment on a global scale is provided by using the triple-collocation (TC) technique allowing us also to compare these data with the latest, fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA5), the Early Run version of the Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG), and the gauge-based Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) products. Results show that the SM2RAIN–ASCAT rainfall data record performs relatively well at both a regional and global scale, mainly in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) when compared to other products. Specifically, the SM2RAIN–ASCAT data record provides performance better than IMERG and GPCC in data-scarce regions of the world, such as Africa and South America. In these areas, we expect larger benefits in using SM2RAIN–ASCAT for hydrological and agricultural applications. The limitations of the SM2RAIN–ASCAT data record consist of the underestimation of peak rainfall events and the presence of spurious rainfall events due to high-frequency soil moisture fluctuations that might be corrected in the future with more advanced bias correction techniques. The SM2RAIN–ASCAT data record is freely available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3405563 (Brocca et al., 2019) (recently extended to the end of August 2019)

Guidance Index for Shallow Landslide Hazard Analysis

Rainfall-induced landslides are one of the most frequent hazards on slanted terrains. They lead to considerable economic losses and fatalities worldwide. Intense storms with high-intensity and long-duration rainfall have high potential to trigger rapidly moving soil masses due to changes in pore water pressure and seepage forces. Nevertheless, regardless of the intensity-duration of the rainfall, shallow landslides are influenced by antecedent soil moisture conditions. To the present day, no system exists that dynamically interrelates these two factors. This work establishes a relationship between antecedent soil moisture and rainfall expressed in the form of a Shallow Landslide Index (SLI) at 1km2 resolution for the United States. The proposed mathematical model is based on a logistic regression-learning algorithm that systematically adapts from previous landslide events listed in a comprehensive landslide inventory. Because landslides are considered to be the product of the interaction of static and dynamic factors, static factors are examined first. Also, because significant uncertainties are found when mapping factors in large spatial scales, buffer and threshold techniques are used to downscale areas and minimize uncertainties. Static parameters for 230 shallow rainfall-induced landslides in the continental United States are examined. ASTER GDEM is used as the basis for topographical characterization of slope and buffer analysis. Slope angle threshold assessment at the 50, 75, 95, 98, and 99 percentiles is tested locally. Further analysis of each threshold in relation to other parameters is investigated in a logistic regression model for the continental U.S. It is determined that lower than 95-percentile thresholds under-estimate slope angles and best regression fit can be achieved when utilizing the 99-threshold slope angle. This model predicts the highest number of cases correctly at 87.0% accuracy. A one-unit rise in the 99-threshold range increases landslide likelihood by 11.8%. The logistic regression model is carried over to ArcGIS where all static variables are processed based on their corresponding coefficients. A regional slope susceptibility map for the continental United States is developed and analyzed against the available landslide records and their spatial distributions. Consequently, a mathematical algorithm is proposed to determine landslide probability as a function of static and dynamic factors employing accumulated water volume. As rainfall thresholds alone do not provide information about the soil wetness profile with depth, the Shallow Landslide Index (SLI) is intended to be an indicator of antecedent root soil moisture and rainfall accumulation over a 1km2 pixel area. Experimentally, root-soil moisture retrieved from AMSR-E and rainfall retrieved from TRMM are used as proxies to develop such index. Static and dynamic conditions leading to each landslide event are examined over 60-days, 30-days, 10-days and 7-days. The input dataset is randomly divided into training and verification sets where validation results indicate that the best-fit model predicts the highest number of cases correctly at 93.2% accuracy. The resulting equation is then incorporated in a python subroutine that calculates the SLI for each of the 900,000-pixel points. For each pixel, the algorithm incrementally tries values from 0 to the value that makes the event probability equal to 1. Since AMSR-E and TRMM stopped working in October 2011 and April 2015 respectively, a solution that works for the future is presented. Root-soil moisture retrieved from SMAP and rainfall retrieved from GPM are used to develop models that calculate the SLI for the continental United States for 10-days, 7-days, and 3-days. The resulting models indicated a strong relationship (93.4%, 93.8%, and 93.7% respectively) between the predictors and the prediction value. Nevertheless, as of the writing of this work, the SMAP root soil moisture product has a mean latency of 7-days hence the SLI is functional for 10 or 7 days. It is expected that as SMAP’s latency is reduced, the SLI functionally can also be brought to a shorter period. The resulting SLI map can potentially be used as an indicator of the total amount of rainfall needed for a given duration of time to trigger a shallow landslide in a susceptible area

Assessing the utility of remote sensing data to accurately estimate changes in groundwater storage

Accurate and timely estimates of groundwater storage changes are critical to the sustainable management of aquifers worldwide, but are hindered by the lack of in-situ groundwater measurements in most regions. Hydrologic remote sensing measurements provide a potential pathway to quantify groundwater storage changes by closing the water balance, but the degree to which remote sensing data can accurately estimate groundwater storage changes is unclear. In this study, we quantified groundwater storage changes in California\u27s Central Valley at two spatial scales for the period 2002 through 2020 using remote sensing data and an ensemble water balance method. To evaluate performance, we compared estimates of groundwater storage changes to three independent estimates: GRACE satellite data, groundwater wells and a groundwater flow model. Results suggest evapotranspiration has the highest uncertainty among water balance components, while precipitation has the lowest. We found that remote sensing-based groundwater storage estimates correlated well with independent estimates; annual trends during droughts fall within 15% of trends calculated using wells and groundwater models within the Central Valley. Remote sensing-based estimates also reliably estimated the long-term trend, seasonality, and rate of groundwater depletion during major drought events. Additionally, our study suggests that the proposed method estimate changes in groundwater at sub-annual latencies, which is not currently possible using other methods. The findings have implications for improving the understanding of aquifer dynamics and can inform regional water managers about the status of groundwater systems during droughts

Synergistic optical and microwave remote sensing approaches for soil moisture mapping at high resolution

Aplicat embargament des de la data de defensa fins al dia 1 d'octubre de 2022Soil moisture is an essential climate variable that plays a crucial role linking the Earth’s water, energy, and carbon cycles. It is responsible for the water exchange between the Earth’s surface and the atmosphere, and provides key information about soil evaporation, plant transpiration, and the allocation of precipitation into runoff, surface flow and infiltration. Therefore, an accurate estimation of soil moisture is needed to enhance our current climate and meteorological forecasting skills, and to improve our current understanding of the hydrological cycle and its extremes (e.g., droughts and floods). L-band Microwave passive and active sensors have been used during the last decades to estimate soil moisture, since there is a strong relationship between this variable and the soil dielectric properties. Currently, there are two operational L-band missions specifically devoted to globally measure soil moisture: the ESA’s Soil Moisture and the Ocean Salinity (SMOS), launched in November 2009; and the NASA’s Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), launched in January 2015. The spatial resolution of the SMOS and SMAP radiometers, in the order of tens of kilometers (~40 km), is adequate for global applications. However, to fulfill the needs of a growing number of applications at local or regional scale, higher spatial detail (< 1 km) is required. To bridge this gap and improve the spatial resolution of the soil moisture maps, a variety of spatial enhancement or spatial (sub-pixel) disaggregation approaches have been proposed. This Ph.D. Thesis focuses on the study of the Earth’s surface soil moisture from remotely sensed observations. This work includes the implementation of several soil moisture retrieval techniques and the development, implementation, validation and comparison of different spatial enhancement or downscaling techniques, applied at local, regional, and continental scale. To meet these objectives, synergies between several active/passive microwave sensors (SMOS, SMAP and Sentinel-1) and optical/thermal sensors (MODIS) have been explored. The results are presented as follows: - Spatially consistent downscaling approach for SMOS using an adaptive moving window A passive microwave/optical downscaling algorithm for SMOS is proposed to obtain fine-scale soil moisture maps (1 km) from the native resolution (~40 km) of the instrument. This algorithm introduces the concept of a shape-adaptive window as a central improvement of the disaggregation technique presented by Piles et al. (2014), allowing its application at continental scales. - Assessment of multi-scale SMOS and SMAP soil moisture products across the Iberian Peninsula The temporal and spatial characteristics of SMOS and SMAP soil moisture products at coarse- and fine-scales are assessed in order to learn about their distinct features and the rationale behind them, tracing back to the physical assumptions they are based upon. - Impact of incidence angle diversity on soil moisture retrievals at coarse and fine scales An incidence angle (32.5°, 42.5° and 52.5°)-adaptive calibration of radiative transfer effective parameters single scattering albedo and soil roughness has been carried out, highlighting the importance of such parameterization to accurately estimate soil moisture at coarse-resolution. Then, these parameterizations are used to examine the potential application of a physically-based active-passive downscaling approach to upcoming microwave missions, namely CIMR, ROSE-L and Sentinel-1 Next Generation. Soil moisture maps obtained for the Iberian Peninsula at the three different angles, and at coarse and fine scales are inter-compared using in situ measurements and model data as benchmarks.La humedad del suelo es una variable climática esencial que juega un papel crucial en la relación de los ciclos del agua, la energía y el carbono de la Tierra. Es responsable del intercambio de agua entre la superficie de la Tierra y la atmósfera, y proporciona información crucial sobre la evaporación del suelo, la transpiración de las plantas y la distribución de la precipitación en escorrentía, flujo superficial e infiltración. Por lo tanto, es necesaria una estimación precisa de la humedad del suelo para mejorar las predicciones climáticas y meteorológicas, y comprender mejor el ciclo hidrológico y sus extremos (v.g., sequías e inundaciones). Los sensores pasivos y activos en banda L se han usado durante las últimas décadas para estimar la humedad del suelo debido a la relación directa que existe entre esta variable y las propiedades dieléctricas del suelo. Actualmente, hay dos misiones operativas en banda L específicamente dedicadas a medir la humedad del suelo a escala global: la misión Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) de la ESA, lanzada en noviembre de 2009; y la misión Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) de la NASA, lanzada en enero de 2015. La resolución espacial de los radiómetros SMOS y SMAP, del orden de unas decenas de kilómetros (~40 km), es adecuada para aplicaciones a escala global. Sin embargo, para satisfacer las necesidades de un número creciente de aplicaciones a escala local o regional, se requiere más detalle espacial (<1 km). Para solventar esta limitación y mejorar la resolución espacial de los mapas de humedad, se han propuesto diferentes técnicas de mejora o desagregación espacial. Esta Tesis se centra en el estudio de la humedad de la superficie terrestre a partir de datos obtenidos a través de teledetección. Este trabajo incluye la implementación de distintos algoritmos de recuperación de la humedad del suelo y el desarrollo, implementación, validación y comparación de distintas técnicas de desagregación, aplicadas a escala local, regional y continental. Para cumplir estos objetivos, se han explorado sinergias entre diferentes sensores de microondas activos/pasivos (SMOS, SMAP y Sentinel-1) y sensores ópticos/térmicos. Los resultados se presentan de la siguiente manera: - Técnica de desagregación espacialmente consistente, basada en una ventana móvil adaptativa, aplicada a los datos SMOS Se propone un algoritmo de desagregación del píxel basado en datos obtenidos de medidas radiométricas de microondas en banda L y datos ópticos, para mejorar la resolución espacial de los mapas de humedad del suelo desde la resolución nativa del instrumento (~40 km) hasta resoluciones de 1 km. El algoritmo introduce el concepto de una ventana de contorno adaptativo, como mejora principal sobre la técnica de desagregación presentada en Piles et al. (2014), permitiendo su implementación a escala continental. - Análisis multiescalar de productos de humedad del suelo SMAP y SMOS sobre la Península Ibérica Se han evaluado las características temporales y espaciales de distintos productos de humedad del suelo SMOS y SMAP, a baja y a alta resolución, para conocer sus características distintivas y comprender las razones de sus diferencias. Para ello, ha sido necesario rastrear los supuestos físicos en los que se basan. - Impacto del ángulo de incidencia en la recuperación de la humedad del suelo a baja y a alta resolución Se ha llevado a cabo una calibración adaptada al ángulo de incidencia (32.5°, 42.5° y 52.5°) de los parámetros efectivos, albedo de dispersión simple y rugosidad del suelo, descritos en el modelo de transferencia radiativa � − �, incidiendo en la importancia de esta parametrización para estimar la humedad del suelo de forma precisa a baja resolución. El resultado de las mismas se ha utilizado para estudiar la potencial aplicación de un algoritmo activo/pasivo de desagregación basado en la física para las próximas misiones de microondas, llamadas CIMR, ROSE-L y Sentinel-1 Next Generation. Los mapas de humedad recuperados a los tres ángulos de incidencia, tanto a baja como a alta resolución, se han obtenido para la Península Ibérica y se han comparado entre ellos usando como referencia mediciones de humedad in situ.Postprint (published version

HISTORICAL AND FORECASTED KENTUCKY SPECIFIC SLOPE STABILITY ANALYSES USING REMOTELY RETRIEVED HYDROLOGIC AND GEOMORPHOLOGIC DATA

Hazard analyses of rainfall-induced landslides have typically been observed to experience a lack of inclusion of measurements of soil moisture within a given soil layer at a site of interest. Soil moisture is a hydromechanical variable capable of both strength gains and reductions within soil systems. However, in situ monitoring of soil moisture at every site of interest is an unfeasible goal. Therefore, spatiotemporal estimates of soil moisture that are representative of in-situ conditions are required for use in subsequent landslide hazard analyses. This study brings together various techniques for the acquisition, modeling, and forecasting of spatiotemporal retrievals of soil moisture across areas of Eastern Kentucky for use in hazard analyses. These techniques include: A novel approach for determination of satellite-based soil moisture retrieval correction factors for use in acquisition of low orbit-based soil moisture retrievals in site-specific analyses, unique spatiotemporal modeling of soil moisture at various depths within the soil layer through assimilation of satellite-based and land surface modeled soil moisture estimates, and the development of a novel workflow to effectively provide 7-day forecasts of soil moisture for use in subsequent forecasting of landslide hazards. Soil moisture retrieved through the previous approaches was implemented within landslide hazard and susceptibility analyses across known rainfall-induced landslides within Eastern Kentucky. Investigated analyses were conducted through a coupling of spatial soil moisture retrievals with that of site-specific geomorphologic data. These analyses proved capable in the detection of incipient failure conditions indicative of landslide occurrence over these known investigated slides. These soil moisture-based analyses show that inclusion of soil moisture, as hydromechanical variable, yields a more capable hazard analysis approach. Additionally, these analyses serve as a means to gain a better understanding of the coupled hydro-mechanical behavior associated with the initiation of rainfall-induced landslides

Enhanced flood mapping using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images, hydraulic modelling, and social media: A case study of Hurricane Harvey (Houston, TX)

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SM2RAIN-ASCAT (2007–2018): global daily satellite rainfallfrom ASCAT soil moisture

Abstract. Long-term gridded precipitation products are crucial for several applications in hydrology, agriculture and climate sciences. Currently available precipitation products obtained from rain gauges, remote sensing and meteorological modelling suffer from space and time inconsistency due to non-uniform density of ground networks and the difficulties in merging multiple satellite sensors. The recent bottom up approach that uses satellite soil moisture observations for estimating rainfall through the SM2RAIN algorithm is suited to build long-term and consistent rainfall data record as a single polar orbiting satellite sensor is used. We exploit here the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) on board three Metop satellites, launched in 2006, 2012 and 2018. The continuity of the scatterometer sensor on European operational weather satellites is ensured until mid-2040s through the Metop Second Generation Programme. By applying SM2RAIN algorithm to ASCAT soil moisture observations a long-term rainfall data record can be obtained, also operationally available in near real time. The paper describes the recent improvements in data pre-processing, SM2RAIN algorithm formulation, and data post-processing for obtaining the SM2RAIN-ASCAT global daily rainfall dataset at 12.5 km sampling (2007–2018). The quality of SM2RAIN-ASCAT dataset is assessed on a regional scale through the comparison with high-quality ground networks in Europe, United States, India and Australia. Moreover, an assessment on a global scale is provided by using the Triple Collocation technique allowing us also the comparison with other global products such as the latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis (ERA5), the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, and the gauge-based Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) product. Results show that the SM2RAIN-ASCAT rainfall dataset performs relatively well both at regional and global scale, mainly in terms of root mean square error when compared to other datasets. Specifically, SM2RAIN-ASCAT dataset provides better performance better than GPM and GPCC in the data scarce regions of the world, such as Africa and South America. In these areas we expect the larger benefits in using SM2RAIN-ASCAT for hydrological and agricultural applications.The SM2RAIN-ASCAT dataset is freely available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.2591215

The Precipitation Inferred from Soil Moisture (PrISM) Near Real-Time Rainfall Product: Evaluation and Comparison

Near real-time precipitation is essential to many applications. In Africa, the lack of dense rain-gauge networks and ground weather radars makes the use of satellite precipitation products unavoidable. Despite major progresses in estimating precipitation rate from remote sensing measurements over the past decades, satellite precipitation products still suffer from quantitative uncertainties and biases compared to ground data. Consequently, almost all precipitation products are provided in two modes: a real-time mode (also called early-run or raw product) and a corrected mode (also called final-run, adjusted or post-processed product) in which ground precipitation measurements are integrated in algorithms to correct for bias, generally at a monthly timescale. This paper describes a new methodology to provide a near-real-time precipitation product based on satellite precipitation and soil moisture measurements. Recent studies have shown that soil moisture intrinsically contains information on past precipitation and can be used to correct precipitation uncertainties. The PrISM (Precipitation inferred from Soil Moisture) methodology is presented and its performance is assessed for five in situ rainfall measurement networks located in Africa in semi-arid to wet areas: Niger, Benin, Burkina Faso, Central Africa, and East Africa. Results show that the use of SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) satellite soil moisture measurements in the PrISM algorithm most often improves the real-time satellite precipitation products, and provides results comparable to existing adjusted products, such as TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission), GPCC (Global Precipitation Climatology Centre) and IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM), which are available a few weeks or months after their detection