Universal Estimation of Directed Information

Four estimators of the directed information rate between a pair of jointly stationary ergodic finite-alphabet processes are proposed, based on universal probability assignments. The first one is a Shannon--McMillan--Breiman type estimator, similar to those used by Verd\'u (2005) and Cai, Kulkarni, and Verd\'u (2006) for estimation of other information measures. We show the almost sure and $L_1$ convergence properties of the estimator for any underlying universal probability assignment. The other three estimators map universal probability assignments to different functionals, each exhibiting relative merits such as smoothness, nonnegativity, and boundedness. We establish the consistency of these estimators in almost sure and $L_1$ senses, and derive near-optimal rates of convergence in the minimax sense under mild conditions. These estimators carry over directly to estimating other information measures of stationary ergodic finite-alphabet processes, such as entropy rate and mutual information rate, with near-optimal performance and provide alternatives to classical approaches in the existing literature. Guided by these theoretical results, the proposed estimators are implemented using the context-tree weighting algorithm as the universal probability assignment. Experiments on synthetic and real data are presented, demonstrating the potential of the proposed schemes in practice and the utility of directed information estimation in detecting and measuring causal influence and delay.Comment: 23 pages, 10 figures, to appear in IEEE Transactions on Information Theor

Justification of Logarithmic Loss via the Benefit of Side Information

We consider a natural measure of relevance: the reduction in optimal prediction risk in the presence of side information. For any given loss function, this relevance measure captures the benefit of side information for performing inference on a random variable under this loss function. When such a measure satisfies a natural data processing property, and the random variable of interest has alphabet size greater than two, we show that it is uniquely characterized by the mutual information, and the corresponding loss function coincides with logarithmic loss. In doing so, our work provides a new characterization of mutual information, and justifies its use as a measure of relevance. When the alphabet is binary, we characterize the only admissible forms the measure of relevance can assume while obeying the specified data processing property. Our results naturally extend to measuring causal influence between stochastic processes, where we unify different causal-inference measures in the literature as instantiations of directed information

Causal Dependence Tree Approximations of Joint Distributions for Multiple Random Processes

We investigate approximating joint distributions of random processes with causal dependence tree distributions. Such distributions are particularly useful in providing parsimonious representation when there exists causal dynamics among processes. By extending the results by Chow and Liu on dependence tree approximations, we show that the best causal dependence tree approximation is the one which maximizes the sum of directed informations on its edges, where best is defined in terms of minimizing the KL-divergence between the original and the approximate distribution. Moreover, we describe a low-complexity algorithm to efficiently pick this approximate distribution.Comment: 9 pages, 15 figure