Conceptualizing human resilience in the face of the global epidemiology of cyber attacks

Computer security is a complex global phenomenon where different populations interact, and the infection of one person creates risk for another. Given the dynamics and scope of cyber campaigns, studies of local resilience without reference to global populations are inadequate. In this paper we describe a set of minimal requirements for implementing a global epidemiological infrastructure to understand and respond to large-scale computer security outbreaks. We enumerate the relevant dimensions, the applicable measurement tools, and define a systematic approach to evaluate cyber security resilience. From the experience in conceptualizing and designing a cross-national coordinated phishing resilience evaluation we describe the cultural, logistic, and regulatory challenges to this proposed public health approach to global computer assault resilience. We conclude that mechanisms for systematic evaluations of global attacks and the resilience against those attacks exist. Coordinated global science is needed to address organised global ecrime

Comparison of Empirical Data from Two Honeynets and a Distributed Honeypot Network

In this paper we present empirical results and speculative analysis based on observations collected over a two month period from studies with two high interaction honeynets, deployed in a corporate and an SME (small to medium enterprise) environment, and a distributed honeypots deployment. All three networks contain a mixture of Windows and Linux hosts. We detail the architecture of the deployment and results of comparing the observations from the three environments. We analyze in detail the times between attacks on different hosts, operating systems, networks or geographical location. Even though results from honeynet deployments are reported often in the literature, this paper provides novel results analyzing traffic from three different types of networks and some initial exploratory models. This research aims to contribute to endeavours in the wider security research community to build methods, grounded on strong empirical work, for assessment of the robustness of computer-based systems in hostile environments

An Economic Analysis of Privacy Protection and Statistical Accuracy as Social Choices

Statistical agencies face a dual mandate to publish accurate statistics while protecting respondent privacy. Increasing privacy protection requires decreased accuracy. Recognizing this as a resource allocation problem, we propose an economic solution: operate where the marginal cost of increasing privacy equals the marginal benefit. Our model of production, from computer science, assumes data are published using an efficient differentially private algorithm. Optimal choice weighs the demand for accurate statistics against the demand for privacy. Examples from U.S. statistical programs show how our framework can guide decision-making. Further progress requires a better understanding of willingness-to-pay for privacy and statistical accuracy

From Social Data Mining to Forecasting Socio-Economic Crisis

Socio-economic data mining has a great potential in terms of gaining a better understanding of problems that our economy and society are facing, such as financial instability, shortages of resources, or conflicts. Without large-scale data mining, progress in these areas seems hard or impossible. Therefore, a suitable, distributed data mining infrastructure and research centers should be built in Europe. It also appears appropriate to build a network of Crisis Observatories. They can be imagined as laboratories devoted to the gathering and processing of enormous volumes of data on both natural systems such as the Earth and its ecosystem, as well as on human techno-socio-economic systems, so as to gain early warnings of impending events. Reality mining provides the chance to adapt more quickly and more accurately to changing situations. Further opportunities arise by individually customized services, which however should be provided in a privacy-respecting way. This requires the development of novel ICT (such as a self- organizing Web), but most likely new legal regulations and suitable institutions as well. As long as such regulations are lacking on a world-wide scale, it is in the public interest that scientists explore what can be done with the huge data available. Big data do have the potential to change or even threaten democratic societies. The same applies to sudden and large-scale failures of ICT systems. Therefore, dealing with data must be done with a large degree of responsibility and care. Self-interests of individuals, companies or institutions have limits, where the public interest is affected, and public interest is not a sufficient justification to violate human rights of individuals. Privacy is a high good, as confidentiality is, and damaging it would have serious side effects for society.Comment: 65 pages, 1 figure, Visioneer White Paper, see http://www.visioneer.ethz.c