Estimation and confidence sets for sparse normal mixtures

For high dimensional statistical models, researchers have begun to focus on situations which can be described as having relatively few moderately large coefficients. Such situations lead to some very subtle statistical problems. In particular, Ingster and Donoho and Jin have considered a sparse normal means testing problem, in which they described the precise demarcation or detection boundary. Meinshausen and Rice have shown that it is even possible to estimate consistently the fraction of nonzero coordinates on a subset of the detectable region, but leave unanswered the question of exactly in which parts of the detectable region consistent estimation is possible. In the present paper we develop a new approach for estimating the fraction of nonzero means for problems where the nonzero means are moderately large. We show that the detection region described by Ingster and Donoho and Jin turns out to be the region where it is possible to consistently estimate the expected fraction of nonzero coordinates. This theory is developed further and minimax rates of convergence are derived. A procedure is constructed which attains the optimal rate of convergence in this setting. Furthermore, the procedure also provides an honest lower bound for confidence intervals while minimizing the expected length of such an interval. Simulations are used to enable comparison with the work of Meinshausen and Rice, where a procedure is given but where rates of convergence have not been discussed. Extensions to more general Gaussian mixture models are also given.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053607000000334 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Optimal inference in a class of regression models

We consider the problem of constructing confidence intervals (CIs) for a linear functional of a regression function, such as its value at a point, the regression discontinuity parameter, or a regression coefficient in a linear or partly linear regression. Our main assumption is that the regression function is known to lie in a convex function class, which covers most smoothness and/or shape assumptions used in econometrics. We derive finite-sample optimal CIs and sharp efficiency bounds under normal errors with known variance. We show that these results translate to uniform (over the function class) asymptotic results when the error distribution is not known. When the function class is centrosymmetric, these efficiency bounds imply that minimax CIs are close to efficient at smooth regression functions. This implies, in particular, that it is impossible to form CIs that are tighter using data-dependent tuning parameters, and maintain coverage over the whole function class. We specialize our results to inference on the regression discontinuity parameter, and illustrate them in simulations and an empirical application.Comment: 39 pages plus supplementary material

Minimizing Communication for Eigenproblems and the Singular Value Decomposition

Algorithms have two costs: arithmetic and communication. The latter represents the cost of moving data, either between levels of a memory hierarchy, or between processors over a network. Communication often dominates arithmetic and represents a rapidly increasing proportion of the total cost, so we seek algorithms that minimize communication. In \cite{BDHS10} lower bounds were presented on the amount of communication required for essentially all $O(n^3)$-like algorithms for linear algebra, including eigenvalue problems and the SVD. Conventional algorithms, including those currently implemented in (Sca)LAPACK, perform asymptotically more communication than these lower bounds require. In this paper we present parallel and sequential eigenvalue algorithms (for pencils, nonsymmetric matrices, and symmetric matrices) and SVD algorithms that do attain these lower bounds, and analyze their convergence and communication costs.Comment: 43 pages, 11 figure

An explicit Euler scheme with strong rate of convergence for financial SDEs with non-Lipschitz coefficients

We consider the approximation of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with non-Lipschitz drift or diffusion coefficients. We present a modified explicit Euler-Maruyama discretisation scheme that allows us to prove strong convergence, with a rate. Under some regularity and integrability conditions, we obtain the optimal strong error rate. We apply this scheme to SDEs widely used in the mathematical finance literature, including the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross~(CIR), the 3/2 and the Ait-Sahalia models, as well as a family of mean-reverting processes with locally smooth coefficients. We numerically illustrate the strong convergence of the scheme and demonstrate its efficiency in a multilevel Monte Carlo setting.Comment: 36 pages, 17 figures, 2 table