On a class of minimum contrast estimators for Gegenbauer random fields

The article introduces spatial long-range dependent models based on the fractional difference operators associated with the Gegenbauer polynomials. The results on consistency and asymptotic normality of a class of minimum contrast estimators of long-range dependence parameters of the models are obtained. A methodology to verify assumptions for consistency and asymptotic normality of minimum contrast estimators is developed. Numerical results are presented to confirm the theoretical findings.Comment: 23 pages, 8 figure

Aggregation and long memory: recent developments

It is well-known that the aggregated time series might have very different properties from those of the individual series, in particular, long memory. At the present time, aggregation has become one of the main tools for modelling of long memory processes. We review recent work on contemporaneous aggregation of random-coefficient AR(1) and related models, with particular focus on various long memory properties of the aggregated process

2-D iteratively reweighted least squares lattice algorithm and its application to defect detection in textured images

In this paper, a 2-D iteratively reweighted least squares lattice algorithm, which is robust to the outliers, is introduced and is applied to defect detection problem in textured images. First, the philosophy of using different optimization functions that results in weighted least squares solution in the theory of 1-D robust regression is extended to 2-D. Then a new algorithm is derived which combines 2-D robust regression concepts with the 2-D recursive least squares lattice algorithm. With this approach, whatever the probability distribution of the prediction error may be, small weights are assigned to the outliers so that the least squares algorithm will be less sensitive to the outliers. Implementation of the proposed iteratively reweighted least squares lattice algorithm to the problem of defect detection in textured images is then considered. The performance evaluation, in terms of defect detection rate, demonstrates the importance of the proposed algorithm in reducing the effect of the outliers that generally correspond to false alarms in classification of textures as defective or nondefective

Bayesian Lattice Filters for Time-Varying Autoregression and Time-Frequency Analysis

Modeling nonstationary processes is of paramount importance to many scientific disciplines including environmental science, ecology, and finance, among others. Consequently, flexible methodology that provides accurate estimation across a wide range of processes is a subject of ongoing interest. We propose a novel approach to model-based time-frequency estimation using time-varying autoregressive models. In this context, we take a fully Bayesian approach and allow both the autoregressive coefficients and innovation variance to vary over time. Importantly, our estimation method uses the lattice filter and is cast within the partial autocorrelation domain. The marginal posterior distributions are of standard form and, as a convenient by-product of our estimation method, our approach avoids undesirable matrix inversions. As such, estimation is extremely computationally efficient and stable. To illustrate the effectiveness of our approach, we conduct a comprehensive simulation study that compares our method with other competing methods and find that, in most cases, our approach performs superior in terms of average squared error between the estimated and true time-varying spectral density. Lastly, we demonstrate our methodology through three modeling applications; namely, insect communication signals, environmental data (wind components), and macroeconomic data (US gross domestic product (GDP) and consumption).Comment: 49 pages, 16 figure

Essays on spatial autoregressive models with increasingly many parameters

Much cross-sectional data in econometrics is blighted by dependence across units. A solution to this problem is the use of spatial models that allow for an explicit form of dependence across space. This thesis studies problems related to spatial models with increasingly many parameters. A large proportion of the thesis concentrates on Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) models with increasing dimension. Such models are frequently used to model spatial correlation, especially in settings where the data are irregularly spaced. Chapter 1 provides an introduction and background material for the thesis. Chapter 2 develops consistency and asymptotic normality of least squares and instrumental variables (IV) estimates for the parameters of a higher-order spatial autoregressive (SAR) model with regressors. The order of the SAR model and the number of regressors are allowed to approach infinity with sample size, and the permissible rate of growth of the dimension of the parameter space relative to sample size is studied. An alternative to least squares or IV is to use the Gaussian pseudo maximum likelihood estimate (PMLE), studied in Chapter 3. However, this is plagued by finitesample problems due to the implicit definition of the estimate, these being exacerbated by the increasing dimension of the parameter space. A computationally simple Newton type step is used to obtain estimates with the same asymptotic properties as those of the PMLE. Chapters 4 and 5 of the thesis deal with spatial models on an equally spaced, d dimensional lattice. We study the covariance structure of stationary random fields defined on d-dimensional lattices in detail and use the analysis to extend many results from time series. Our main theorem concerns autoregressive spectral density estimation. Stationary random fields on a regularly spaced lattice have an infinite autoregressive representation if they are also purely non-deterministic. We use truncated versions of the AR representation to estimate the spectral density and establish uniform consistency of the proposed spectral density estimate

Improved Subset Autoregression: With R Package

The FitAR R (R Development Core Team 2008) package that is available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network is described. This package provides a comprehensive approach to fitting autoregressive and subset autoregressive time series. For long time series with complicated autocorrelation behavior, such as the monthly sunspot numbers, subset autoregression may prove more feasible and/or parsimonious than using AR or ARMA models. The two principal functions in this package are SelectModel and FitAR for automatic model selection and model fitting respectively. In addition to the regular autoregressive model and the usual subset autoregressive models (Tong'77), these functions implement a new family of models. This new family of subset autoregressive models is obtained by using the partial autocorrelations as parameters and then selecting a subset of these parameters. Further properties and results for these models are discussed in McLeod and Zhang (2006). The advantages of this approach are that not only is an efficient algorithm for exact maximum likelihood implemented but that efficient methods are derived for selecting high-order subset models that may occur in massive datasets containing long time series. A new improved extended {BIC} criterion, {UBIC}, developed by Chen and Chen (2008) is implemented for subset model selection. A complete suite of model building functions for each of the three types of autoregressive models described above are included in the package. The package includes functions for time series plots, diagnostic testing and plotting, bootstrapping, simulation, forecasting, Box-Cox analysis, spectral density estimation and other useful time series procedures. As well as methods for standard generic functions including print, plot, predict and others, some new generic functions and methods are supplied that make it easier to work with the output from FitAR for bootstrapping, simulation, spectral density estimation and Box-Cox analysis.