Tree-Structured Recurrent Switching Linear Dynamical Systems for Multi-Scale Modeling

Many real-world systems studied are governed by complex, nonlinear dynamics. By modeling these dynamics, we can gain insight into how these systems work, make predictions about how they will behave, and develop strategies for controlling them. While there are many methods for modeling nonlinear dynamical systems, existing techniques face a trade off between offering interpretable descriptions and making accurate predictions. Here, we develop a class of models that aims to achieve both simultaneously, smoothly interpolating between simple descriptions and more complex, yet also more accurate models. Our probabilistic model achieves this multi-scale property through a hierarchy of locally linear dynamics that jointly approximate global nonlinear dynamics. We call it the tree-structured recurrent switching linear dynamical system. To fit this model, we present a fully-Bayesian sampling procedure using Polya-Gamma data augmentation to allow for fast and conjugate Gibbs sampling. Through a variety of synthetic and real examples, we show how these models outperform existing methods in both interpretability and predictive capability

Nonlinear control in the nematode C. elegans

Recent whole-brain calcium imaging recordings of the nematode C. elegans have demonstrated that neural activity is dominated by dynamics on a low-dimensional manifold that can be clustered according to behavioral states. Despite progress in modeling the dynamics with linear or locally linear models, it remains unclear how a single network of neurons can produce the observed features. In particular, there are multiple clusters, or fixed points, observed in the data which cannot be characterized by a single linear model. We propose a nonlinear control model which is global and parameterized by only four free parameters that match the features displayed by the low-dimensional C. elegans neural activity. In addition to reproducing the average probability distribution of the data, long and short time-scale changes in transition statistics can be characterized via changes in a single parameter. Some of these macro-scale transitions have experimental correlates to single neuro-modulators that seem to act as biological controls, allowing this model to generate testable hypotheses about the effect of these neuro-modulators on the global dynamics. The theory provides an elegant characterization of the neuron population dynamics in C. elegans. Moreover, the mathematical structure of the nonlinear control framework provides a paradigm that can be generalized to more complex systems with an arbitrary number of behavioral states

Investigating naturalistic hand movements by behavior mining in long-term video and neural recordings

Recent technological advances in brain recording and artificial intelligence are propelling a new paradigm in neuroscience beyond the traditional controlled experiment. Rather than focusing on cued, repeated trials, naturalistic neuroscience studies neural processes underlying spontaneous behaviors performed in unconstrained settings. However, analyzing such unstructured data lacking a priori experimental design remains a significant challenge, especially when the data is multi-modal and long-term. Here we describe an automated approach for analyzing simultaneously recorded long-term, naturalistic electrocorticography (ECoG) and naturalistic behavior video data. We take a behavior-first approach to analyzing the long-term recordings. Using a combination of computer vision, discrete latent-variable modeling, and string pattern-matching on the behavioral video data, we find and annotate spontaneous human upper-limb movement events. We show results from our approach applied to data collected for 12 human subjects over 7--9 days for each subject. Our pipeline discovers and annotates over 40,000 instances of naturalistic human upper-limb movement events in the behavioral videos. Analysis of the simultaneously recorded brain data reveals neural signatures of movement that corroborate prior findings from traditional controlled experiments. We also prototype a decoder for a movement initiation detection task to demonstrate the efficacy of our pipeline as a source of training data for brain-computer interfacing applications. Our work addresses the unique data analysis challenges in studying naturalistic human behaviors, and contributes methods that may generalize to other neural recording modalities beyond ECoG. We publicly release our curated dataset, providing a resource to study naturalistic neural and behavioral variability at a scale not previously available

GP-Tree: A Gaussian Process Classifier for Few-Shot Incremental Learning

Gaussian processes (GPs) are non-parametric, flexible, models that work well in many tasks. Combining GPs with deep learning methods via deep kernel learning (DKL) is especially compelling due to the strong representational power induced by the network. However, inference in GPs, whether with or without DKL, can be computationally challenging on large datasets. Here, we propose GP-Tree, a novel method for multi-class classification with Gaussian processes and DKL. We develop a tree-based hierarchical model in which each internal node of the tree fits a GP to the data using the P\'olya Gamma augmentation scheme. As a result, our method scales well with both the number of classes and data size. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method against other Gaussian process training baselines, and we show how our general GP approach achieves improved accuracy on standard incremental few-shot learning benchmarks

Variational Dynamic Mixtures

Deep probabilistic time series forecasting models have become an integral part of machine learning. While several powerful generative models have been proposed, we provide evidence that their associated inference models are oftentimes too limited and cause the generative model to predict mode-averaged dynamics. Modeaveraging is problematic since many real-world sequences are highly multi-modal, and their averaged dynamics are unphysical (e.g., predicted taxi trajectories might run through buildings on the street map). To better capture multi-modality, we develop variational dynamic mixtures (VDM): a new variational family to infer sequential latent variables. The VDM approximate posterior at each time step is a mixture density network, whose parameters come from propagating multiple samples through a recurrent architecture. This results in an expressive multi-modal posterior approximation. In an empirical study, we show that VDM outperforms competing approaches on highly multi-modal datasets from different domains

Graph Gamma Process Generalized Linear Dynamical Systems

We introduce graph gamma process (GGP) linear dynamical systems to model real-valued multivariate time series. For temporal pattern discovery, the latent representation under the model is used to decompose the time series into a parsimonious set of multivariate sub-sequences. In each sub-sequence, different data dimensions often share similar temporal patterns but may exhibit distinct magnitudes, and hence allowing the superposition of all sub-sequences to exhibit diverse behaviors at different data dimensions. We further generalize the proposed model by replacing the Gaussian observation layer with the negative binomial distribution to model multivariate count time series. Generated from the proposed GGP is an infinite dimensional directed sparse random graph, which is constructed by taking the logical OR operation of countably infinite binary adjacency matrices that share the same set of countably infinite nodes. Each of these adjacency matrices is associated with a weight to indicate its activation strength, and places a finite number of edges between a finite subset of nodes belonging to the same node community. We use the generated random graph, whose number of nonzero-degree nodes is finite, to define both the sparsity pattern and dimension of the latent state transition matrix of a (generalized) linear dynamical system. The activation strength of each node community relative to the overall activation strength is used to extract a multivariate sub-sequence, revealing the data pattern captured by the corresponding community. On both synthetic and real-world time series, the proposed nonparametric Bayesian dynamic models, which are initialized at random, consistently exhibit good predictive performance in comparison to a variety of baseline models, revealing interpretable latent state transition patterns and decomposing the time series into distinctly behaved sub-sequences.Comment: 36 pages, 10 figure