ClickClust: An R Package for Model-Based Clustering of Categorical Sequences

The R package ClickClust is a new piece of software devoted to finite mixture modeling and model-based clustering of categorical sequences. As a special kind of time series, categorical sequences, also known as categorical time series, exhibit a time-dependent nature and are traditionally modeled by means of Markov chains. Clustering categorical sequences is an important problem with multiple applications, but grouping sequences of sites or web-pages, also known as clickstreams, is one of the most well-known problems that helps discover common navigation patterns and routes taken by users. This popular application is recognized in the package title ClickClust. The paper discusses methodological and algorithmic foundations of the package based on finite mixtures of Markov models. The number of Markov chain states can often be large leading to high-dimensional transition probability matrices. The high number of model parameters can affect clustering performance severely. As a remedy to this problem, backward and forward selection algorithms are proposed for grouping states. This extends the original clustering problem to a biclustering framework. Among other capabilities of ClickClust, there are the estimation of the variance-covariance matrix corresponding to model parameter estimates, prediction of future states visited, and the construction of a display named click-plot that helps illustrate the obtained clustering solutions. All available functions and the utility of the package are thoroughly discussed and illustrated on multiple examples

Joint Estimation of Multiple Graphical Models from High Dimensional Time Series

In this manuscript we consider the problem of jointly estimating multiple graphical models in high dimensions. We assume that the data are collected from n subjects, each of which consists of T possibly dependent observations. The graphical models of subjects vary, but are assumed to change smoothly corresponding to a measure of closeness between subjects. We propose a kernel based method for jointly estimating all graphical models. Theoretically, under a double asymptotic framework, where both (T,n) and the dimension d can increase, we provide the explicit rate of convergence in parameter estimation. It characterizes the strength one can borrow across different individuals and impact of data dependence on parameter estimation. Empirically, experiments on both synthetic and real resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI) data illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.Comment: 40 page

Estimating Time-Varying Effective Connectivity in High-Dimensional fMRI Data Using Regime-Switching Factor Models

Recent studies on analyzing dynamic brain connectivity rely on sliding-window analysis or time-varying coefficient models which are unable to capture both smooth and abrupt changes simultaneously. Emerging evidence suggests state-related changes in brain connectivity where dependence structure alternates between a finite number of latent states or regimes. Another challenge is inference of full-brain networks with large number of nodes. We employ a Markov-switching dynamic factor model in which the state-driven time-varying connectivity regimes of high-dimensional fMRI data are characterized by lower-dimensional common latent factors, following a regime-switching process. It enables a reliable, data-adaptive estimation of change-points of connectivity regimes and the massive dependencies associated with each regime. We consider the switching VAR to quantity the dynamic effective connectivity. We propose a three-step estimation procedure: (1) extracting the factors using principal component analysis (PCA) and (2) identifying dynamic connectivity states using the factor-based switching vector autoregressive (VAR) models in a state-space formulation using Kalman filter and expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm, and (3) constructing the high-dimensional connectivity metrics for each state based on subspace estimates. Simulation results show that our proposed estimator outperforms the K-means clustering of time-windowed coefficients, providing more accurate estimation of regime dynamics and connectivity metrics in high-dimensional settings. Applications to analyzing resting-state fMRI data identify dynamic changes in brain states during rest, and reveal distinct directed connectivity patterns and modular organization in resting-state networks across different states.Comment: 21 page