8,582 research outputs found
Early Warning Analysis for Social Diffusion Events
There is considerable interest in developing predictive capabilities for
social diffusion processes, for instance to permit early identification of
emerging contentious situations, rapid detection of disease outbreaks, or
accurate forecasting of the ultimate reach of potentially viral ideas or
behaviors. This paper proposes a new approach to this predictive analytics
problem, in which analysis of meso-scale network dynamics is leveraged to
generate useful predictions for complex social phenomena. We begin by deriving
a stochastic hybrid dynamical systems (S-HDS) model for diffusion processes
taking place over social networks with realistic topologies; this modeling
approach is inspired by recent work in biology demonstrating that S-HDS offer a
useful mathematical formalism with which to represent complex, multi-scale
biological network dynamics. We then perform formal stochastic reachability
analysis with this S-HDS model and conclude that the outcomes of social
diffusion processes may depend crucially upon the way the early dynamics of the
process interacts with the underlying network's community structure and
core-periphery structure. This theoretical finding provides the foundations for
developing a machine learning algorithm that enables accurate early warning
analysis for social diffusion events. The utility of the warning algorithm, and
the power of network-based predictive metrics, are demonstrated through an
empirical investigation of the propagation of political memes over social media
networks. Additionally, we illustrate the potential of the approach for
security informatics applications through case studies involving early warning
analysis of large-scale protests events and politically-motivated cyber
attacks
Maximum Entropy Models of Shortest Path and Outbreak Distributions in Networks
Properties of networks are often characterized in terms of features such as
node degree distributions, average path lengths, diameters, or clustering
coefficients. Here, we study shortest path length distributions. On the one
hand, average as well as maximum distances can be determined therefrom; on the
other hand, they are closely related to the dynamics of network spreading
processes. Because of the combinatorial nature of networks, we apply maximum
entropy arguments to derive a general, physically plausible model. In
particular, we establish the generalized Gamma distribution as a continuous
characterization of shortest path length histograms of networks or arbitrary
topology. Experimental evaluations corroborate our theoretical results
The Complexity of Finding Effectors
The NP-hard EFFECTORS problem on directed graphs is motivated by applications
in network mining, particularly concerning the analysis of probabilistic
information-propagation processes in social networks. In the corresponding
model the arcs carry probabilities and there is a probabilistic diffusion
process activating nodes by neighboring activated nodes with probabilities as
specified by the arcs. The point is to explain a given network activation state
as well as possible by using a minimum number of "effector nodes"; these are
selected before the activation process starts.
We correct, complement, and extend previous work from the data mining
community by a more thorough computational complexity analysis of EFFECTORS,
identifying both tractable and intractable cases. To this end, we also exploit
a parameterization measuring the "degree of randomness" (the number of "really"
probabilistic arcs) which might prove useful for analyzing other probabilistic
network diffusion problems as well.Comment: 28 page
Dynamical Systems on Networks: A Tutorial
We give a tutorial for the study of dynamical systems on networks. We focus
especially on "simple" situations that are tractable analytically, because they
can be very insightful and provide useful springboards for the study of more
complicated scenarios. We briefly motivate why examining dynamical systems on
networks is interesting and important, and we then give several fascinating
examples and discuss some theoretical results. We also briefly discuss
dynamical systems on dynamical (i.e., time-dependent) networks, overview
software implementations, and give an outlook on the field.Comment: 39 pages, 1 figure, submitted, more examples and discussion than
original version, some reorganization and also more pointers to interesting
direction
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