Explain, Adapt and Retrain: How to improve the accuracy of a PPM classifier through different explanation styles

Recent papers have introduced a novel approach to explain why a Predictive Process Monitoring (PPM) model for outcome-oriented predictions provides wrong predictions. Moreover, they have shown how to exploit the explanations, obtained using state-of-the art post-hoc explainers, to identify the most common features that induce a predictor to make mistakes in a semi-automated way, and, in turn, to reduce the impact of those features and increase the accuracy of the predictive model. This work starts from the assumption that frequent control flow patterns in event logs may represent important features that characterize, and therefore explain, a certain prediction. Therefore, in this paper, we (i) employ a novel encoding able to leverage DECLARE constraints in Predictive Process Monitoring and compare the effectiveness of this encoding with Predictive Process Monitoring state-of-the art encodings, in particular for the task of outcome-oriented predictions; (ii) introduce a completely automated pipeline for the identification of the most common features inducing a predictor to make mistakes; and (iii) show the effectiveness of the proposed pipeline in increasing the accuracy of the predictive model by validating it on different real-life datasets

Identifying the Key Attributes in an Unlabeled Event Log for Automated Process Discovery

Process mining discovers and analyzes a process model from historical event logs. The prior art methods use the key attributes of case-id, activity, and timestamp hidden in an event log as clues to discover a process model. However, a user needs to specify them manually, and this can be an exhaustive task. In this paper, we propose a two-stage key attribute identification method to avoid such a manual investigation, and thus this is a step toward fully automated process discovery. One of the challenging tasks is how to avoid exhaustive computation due to combinatorial explosion. For this, we narrow down candidates for each key attribute by using supervised machine learning in the first stage and identify the best combination of the key attributes by discovering process models and evaluating them in the second stage. Our computational complexity can be reduced from $\mathcal{O}(N^3)$ to $\mathcal{O}(k^3)$ where $N$ and $k$ are the numbers of columns and candidates we keep in the first stage, respectively, and usually $k$ is much smaller than $N$. We evaluated our method with 14 open datasets and showed that our method could identify the key attributes even with $k = 2$ for about 20 seconds for many datasets.Comment: IEEE Transactions on Services Computing (Early Access version