22,223 research outputs found
Ensemble Committees for Stock Return Classification and Prediction
This paper considers a portfolio trading strategy formulated by algorithms in
the field of machine learning. The profitability of the strategy is measured by
the algorithm's capability to consistently and accurately identify stock
indices with positive or negative returns, and to generate a preferred
portfolio allocation on the basis of a learned model. Stocks are characterized
by time series data sets consisting of technical variables that reflect market
conditions in a previous time interval, which are utilized produce binary
classification decisions in subsequent intervals. The learned model is
constructed as a committee of random forest classifiers, a non-linear support
vector machine classifier, a relevance vector machine classifier, and a
constituent ensemble of k-nearest neighbors classifiers. The Global Industry
Classification Standard (GICS) is used to explore the ensemble model's efficacy
within the context of various fields of investment including Energy, Materials,
Financials, and Information Technology. Data from 2006 to 2012, inclusive, are
considered, which are chosen for providing a range of market circumstances for
evaluating the model. The model is observed to achieve an accuracy of
approximately 70% when predicting stock price returns three months in advance.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figures, Neukom Institute Computational Undergraduate
Research prize - second plac
REBA: A Refinement-Based Architecture for Knowledge Representation and Reasoning in Robotics
This paper describes an architecture for robots that combines the
complementary strengths of probabilistic graphical models and declarative
programming to represent and reason with logic-based and probabilistic
descriptions of uncertainty and domain knowledge. An action language is
extended to support non-boolean fluents and non-deterministic causal laws. This
action language is used to describe tightly-coupled transition diagrams at two
levels of granularity, with a fine-resolution transition diagram defined as a
refinement of a coarse-resolution transition diagram of the domain. The
coarse-resolution system description, and a history that includes (prioritized)
defaults, are translated into an Answer Set Prolog (ASP) program. For any given
goal, inference in the ASP program provides a plan of abstract actions. To
implement each such abstract action, the robot automatically zooms to the part
of the fine-resolution transition diagram relevant to this action. A
probabilistic representation of the uncertainty in sensing and actuation is
then included in this zoomed fine-resolution system description, and used to
construct a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). The policy
obtained by solving the POMDP is invoked repeatedly to implement the abstract
action as a sequence of concrete actions, with the corresponding observations
being recorded in the coarse-resolution history and used for subsequent
reasoning. The architecture is evaluated in simulation and on a mobile robot
moving objects in an indoor domain, to show that it supports reasoning with
violation of defaults, noisy observations and unreliable actions, in complex
domains.Comment: 72 pages, 14 figure
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