3 research outputs found
Tipping points near a delayed saddle node bifurcation with periodic forcing
We consider the effect on tipping from an additive periodic forcing in a
canonical model with a saddle node bifurcation and a slowly varying bifurcation
parameter. Here tipping refers to the dramatic change in dynamical behavior
characterized by a rapid transition away from a previously attracting state. In
the absence of the periodic forcing, it is well-known that a slowly varying
bifurcation parameter produces a delay in this transition, beyond the
bifurcation point for the static case. Using a multiple scales analysis, we
consider the effect of amplitude and frequency of the periodic forcing relative
to the drifting rate of the slowly varying bifurcation parameter.
We show that a high frequency oscillation drives an earlier tipping when the
bifurcation parameter varies more slowly, with the advance of the tipping point
proportional to the square of the ratio of amplitude to frequency. In the low
frequency case the position of the tipping point is affected by the frequency,
amplitude and phase of the oscillation. The results are based on an analysis of
the local concavity of the trajectory, used for low frequencies both of the
same order as the drifting rate of the bifurcation parameter and for low
frequencies larger than the drifting rate. The tipping point location is
advanced with increased amplitude of the periodic forcing, with critical
amplitudes where there are jumps in the location, yielding significant advances
in the tipping point. We demonstrate the analysis for two applications with
saddle node-type bifurcations
Time Dependent Saddle Node Bifurcation: Breaking Time and the Point of No Return in a Non-Autonomous Model of Critical Transitions
There is a growing awareness that catastrophic phenomena in biology and
medicine can be mathematically represented in terms of saddle-node
bifurcations. In particular, the term `tipping', or critical transition has in
recent years entered the discourse of the general public in relation to
ecology, medicine, and public health. The saddle-node bifurcation and its
associated theory of catastrophe as put forth by Thom and Zeeman has seen
applications in a wide range of fields including molecular biophysics,
mesoscopic physics, and climate science. In this paper, we investigate a simple
model of a non-autonomous system with a time-dependent parameter and
its corresponding `dynamic' (time-dependent) saddle-node bifurcation by the
modern theory of non-autonomous dynamical systems. We show that the actual
point of no return for a system undergoing tipping can be significantly delayed
in comparison to the {\em breaking time} at which the
corresponding autonomous system with a time-independent parameter undergoes a bifurcation. A dimensionless parameter
is introduced, in which is the curvature
of the autonomous saddle-node bifurcation according to parameter ,
which has an initial value of and a constant rate of change . We
find that the breaking time is always less than the actual point
of no return after which the critical transition is irreversible;
specifically, the relation is analytically obtained. For a system with a small , there exists a significant window of opportunity
during which rapid reversal of the environment can save the system from
catastrophe