79,579 research outputs found
Forecasting and Granger Modelling with Non-linear Dynamical Dependencies
Traditional linear methods for forecasting multivariate time series are not
able to satisfactorily model the non-linear dependencies that may exist in
non-Gaussian series. We build on the theory of learning vector-valued functions
in the reproducing kernel Hilbert space and develop a method for learning
prediction functions that accommodate such non-linearities. The method not only
learns the predictive function but also the matrix-valued kernel underlying the
function search space directly from the data. Our approach is based on learning
multiple matrix-valued kernels, each of those composed of a set of input
kernels and a set of output kernels learned in the cone of positive
semi-definite matrices. In addition to superior predictive performance in the
presence of strong non-linearities, our method also recovers the hidden dynamic
relationships between the series and thus is a new alternative to existing
graphical Granger techniques.Comment: Accepted for ECML-PKDD 201
High-Dimensional Feature Selection by Feature-Wise Kernelized Lasso
The goal of supervised feature selection is to find a subset of input
features that are responsible for predicting output values. The least absolute
shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) allows computationally efficient
feature selection based on linear dependency between input features and output
values. In this paper, we consider a feature-wise kernelized Lasso for
capturing non-linear input-output dependency. We first show that, with
particular choices of kernel functions, non-redundant features with strong
statistical dependence on output values can be found in terms of kernel-based
independence measures. We then show that the globally optimal solution can be
efficiently computed; this makes the approach scalable to high-dimensional
problems. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through
feature selection experiments with thousands of features.Comment: 18 page
European exchange trading funds trading with locally weighted support vector regression
In this paper, two different Locally Weighted Support Vector Regression (wSVR) algorithms are generated and applied to the task of forecasting and trading five European Exchange Traded Funds. The trading application covers the recent European Monetary Union debt crisis. The performance of the proposed models is benchmarked against traditional Support Vector Regression (SVR) models. The Radial Basis Function, the Wavelet and the Mahalanobis kernel are explored and tested as SVR kernels. Finally, a novel statistical SVR input selection procedure is introduced based on a principal component analysis and the Hansen, Lunde, and Nason (2011) model confidence test. The results demonstrate the superiority of the wSVR models over the traditional SVRs and of the v-SVR over the ε-SVR algorithms. We note that the performance of all models varies and considerably deteriorates in the peak of the debt crisis. In terms of the kernels, our results do not confirm the belief that the Radial Basis Function is the optimum choice for financial series
Time series kernel similarities for predicting Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation from ECGs
We tackle the problem of classifying Electrocardiography (ECG) signals with
the aim of predicting the onset of Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation (PAF). Atrial
fibrillation is the most common type of arrhythmia, but in many cases PAF
episodes are asymptomatic. Therefore, in order to help diagnosing PAF, it is
important to design procedures for detecting and, more importantly, predicting
PAF episodes. We propose a method for predicting PAF events whose first step
consists of a feature extraction procedure that represents each ECG as a
multi-variate time series. Successively, we design a classification framework
based on kernel similarities for multi-variate time series, capable of handling
missing data. We consider different approaches to perform classification in the
original space of the multi-variate time series and in an embedding space,
defined by the kernel similarity measure. We achieve a classification accuracy
comparable with state of the art methods, with the additional advantage of
detecting the PAF onset up to 15 minutes in advance
A survey of outlier detection methodologies
Outlier detection has been used for centuries to detect and, where appropriate, remove anomalous observations from data. Outliers arise due to mechanical faults, changes in system behaviour, fraudulent behaviour, human error, instrument error or simply through natural deviations in populations. Their detection can identify system faults and fraud before they escalate with potentially catastrophic consequences. It can identify errors and remove their contaminating effect on the data set and as such to purify the data for processing. The original outlier detection methods were arbitrary but now, principled and systematic techniques are used, drawn from the full gamut of Computer Science and Statistics. In this paper, we introduce a survey of contemporary techniques for outlier detection. We identify their respective motivations and distinguish their advantages and disadvantages in a comparative review
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