The Price of Anarchy in Active Signal Landscape Map Building

Multiple receivers with a priori knowledge about their own initial states are assumed to be dropped in an unknown environment comprising multiple signals of opportunity (SOPs) transmitters. The receivers draw pseudorange observations from the SOPs. The receivers’ objective is to build a high-fidelity signal landscape map of the environment, which would enable the receivers to navigate accurately with the aid of the SOPs. The receivers could command their own maneuvers and such commands are computed so to maximize the information gathered about the SOPs in a greedy fashion. Several information fusion and decision making architectures are possible. This paper studies the price of anarchy in building signal landscape maps to assess the degradation in the map quality should the receivers produce their own maps and make their own maneuver decisions versus a completely centralized approach. In addition, a hierarchical architecture is proposed in which the receivers build their own maps and make their own decisions, but share relevant information. Such architecture is shown to produce maps of comparable quality to the completely centralized approach.Aerospace Engineering and Engineering Mechanic

Analysis and synthesis of collaborative opportunistic navigation systems

textNavigation is an invisible utility that is often taken for granted with considerable societal and economic impacts. Not only is navigation essential to our modern life, but the more it advances, the more possibilities are created. Navigation is at the heart of three emerging fields: autonomous vehicles, location-based services, and intelligent transportation systems. Global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) are insufficient for reliable anytime, anywhere navigation, particularly indoors, in deep urban canyons, and in environments under malicious attacks (e.g., jamming and spoofing). The conventional approach to overcome the limitations of GNSS-based navigation is to couple GNSS receivers with dead reckoning sensors. A new paradigm, termed opportunistic navigation (OpNav), is emerging. OpNav is analogous to how living creatures naturally navigate: by learning their environment. OpNav aims to exploit the plenitude of ambient radio frequency signals of opportunity (SOPs) in the environment. OpNav radio receivers, which may be handheld or vehicle-mounted, continuously search for opportune signals from which to draw position and timing information, employing on-the-fly signal characterization as necessary. In collaborative opportunistic navigation (COpNav), multiple receivers share information to construct and continuously refine a global signal landscape. For the sake of motivation, consider the following problem. A number of receivers with no a priori knowledge about their own states are dropped in an environment comprising multiple unknown terrestrial SOPs. The receivers draw pseudorange observations from the SOPs. The receivers' objective is to build a high-fidelity signal landscape map of the environment within which they localize themselves in space and time. We then ask: (i) Under what conditions is the environment fully observable? (ii) In cases where the environment is not fully observable, what are the observable states? (iii) How would receiver-controlled maneuvers affect observability? (iv) What is the degree of observability of the various states in the environment? (v) What motion planning strategy should the receivers employ for optimal information gathering? (vi) How effective are receding horizon strategies over greedy for receiver trajectory optimization, and what are their limitations? (vii) What level of collaboration between the receivers achieves a minimal price of anarchy? This dissertation addresses these fundamental questions and validates the theoretical conclusions numerically and experimentally.Electrical and Computer Engineerin

The City of Oil & Water: The Rise and Fall of an American Landscape

TB

China between Iran and the Gulf Monarchies

China\u27s deepening ties to Iran, evident in the comprehensive strategic partnership (CSP) signed in 2021 after five years of stalled progress, is not an indication of a revisionist Chinese approach to the Gulf region. In fact, its CSPs with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, already activated and implemented, are at far more mature levels, commensurate with China\u27s deep levels of economic and political engagement with the Arab side of the Gulf. This is consistent with a strategic hedging approach that Beijing has used to build a sustainable presence without disrupting a competitive and fragile regional order. With far larger and more diverse interests in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, China\u27s partnership with Iran creates leverage due to the asymmetry inherent in the China-Iran relationship

The Messy Nuclear Landscape: Using Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping to Explore Plausible Nuclear Disarmament Scenarios

Nuclear weapons are seemingly permanent fixtures in international relations. Although nuclear abolitionists and actors within the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have taken significant steps towards designing a world without nuclear weapons, the longstanding realist logic that suggests nuclear disarmament is nonviable has born more fruit. On the other hand, some proponents of realism have suggested global nuclear disarmament is feasible, given that certain international instabilities are stabilized and that special care is taken during diplomatic negotiations. This presents an opportunity to test these predictions using fuzzy cognitive mapping, a computational modeling technique that identifies problems, their stakeholders, and stakeholders’ components in order to determine scenarios that solve complex disputes in ways that benefit the system as a whole. This study identifies two problems regarding nuclear disarmament. First, nuclear weapon states are resistant to giving up nuclear weapons, despite agreements to disarm. This problem follows realist logic. Second, the role that the IAEA plays in safeguarding special nuclear materials while guaranteeing states’ rights to nuclear technology is contrasted by states’ interest in maintaining levels of secrecy. These two problems constitute a “mess” that this study analyzes. Synthesis between the problems requires that solving one does not make the other worse. Therefore, this study tests various scenarios and finds that, given present-day international instabilities are stabilized, nuclear disarmament is feasible if three conditions are met: First, a global disarmament agreement must not unreasonably affect states’ sovereign rights outside of the agreement. Second, states outlying the NPT must be brought into the negotiations. Finally, present states with nuclear arsenals adopt the IAEA’s Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement with the Additional Protocol as a measure of good faith. A final factor suggests states’ rights to the technology inevitably means states should have an ability to re-proliferate in the event of future international instability that threatens global security. Once these steps are taken and technological rights guaranteed, this model suggests global nuclear disarmament is possible

Reimagining Development 3.0 for a Changing Planet

This working paper argues we need to reimagine development tactics to fashion Development 3.0, to match what business analysts now call World 3.0, a global system characterized by high turbulence and new threats. It begins by contrasting our former classification of countries spatially into First, Second and Third worlds with a new division of development epochs in sequence since the end of World War II. World 1.0 emphasized industrialization, urbanization, and modernization, lasting from 1945 to 1980. World 2.0 emphasized global trade, and a shift to private actors doing the work of development, from 1980 to the early 2000s. World 3.0 can be seen as superceding globalization by concern with emergent threats. World 1.0 privileged state actions to accelerate “nation building” within former colonies, whereas World 2.0 privileged private capital and free trade as engines for economic growth. Now, following wars, disasters, and the near meltdown of the global financial system in 2007/08, we enter World 3.0 as depicted by Ghemawat and others. We review thirteen major changes not recognized within World 2.0 or its accompanying Development 2.0 regime. The major changes include the rise of homeless capital, the Conservative counter-revolution of the 1980s, the implosion of the USSR, rise of modern China, emergence of BRIC nations, a pan-urban world, rise of identity politics, reemergence of Africa, shift to non-state warfare, growing threat of climate change, MENA nations experience Arab Spring, digital worlds expand, and velocity increases. They suggest coming turbulence and unexpected outcomes, or “mashups” (Ramo). These changes suggest a different emergent system, becoming World 3.0 which has profound differences from how we view our planet’s political economy (World 2.0). If so, the paper outlines implications which suggest the time has come to “take on board” our changed planetary circumstances, and thus begin crafting Development 3.0. “Where the wild things are”, introduces metaphors to change the ‘meta-narratives’ used for viewing World 3.0: “herding elephants,” “taming feral capital”, “swimming with tides” and “avoiding mashups”. They help us realize that long recognized problems (or “elephants”) may show unexpected behaviors to pose new threats within World 3.0. The main argument of the paper then lays out a baker’s dozen changes needed if we hope to fashion more effective ways to promote development for us all. We must “rebalance society” (ala Mintzberg), refashion aid, privilege sustainability, emphasize fair trade, tame feral capital, devise better metrics, include all nations & peoples, seat G-20 not G-8, recognize semi-sovereigns, focus on a pan-urban world, build coalitions in networks, involve women & youth, and rebuild community leadership. All of which assumes we can offset a strong tide towards return to the excesses of World 2.0

SURPRISING ENERGY FUTURES : Neo-Carbon Energy Futures Clinique V

This report describes the process and results of futures clinique Surprising Energy Futures: Anticipating Discontinuities and Testing Resilience of Renewable Energy World with Black Swans, held on 17 May 2017 at Sitra, Helsinki. The event was the fifth futures clinique within the foresight part of the research project Neo-Carbon Enabling Neo-Growth Society – Transformative Scenarios 2050, conducted by Finland Futures Research Centre. The aim of the event was to contribute to the four transformative societal scenarios of Neo-Carbon Energy project. The event consisted of presentations and intermittent working sessions. Dr. Karlheinz Steinmüller discussed the topic of Black Swans and VUCA World, with comments by Prof. Jarno Limnéll