The Surprising Success of a Replication That Failed

In a recent paper (jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/12/4/11.html), Oliver Will contends that the effect of mobility on trust that we originally reported (2002) depends on \'an assumption that is most probably an unwilling, unintended, and unwanted implication of the code.\' When we experimented with Will\'s revised model, we came to the opposite conclusion: his version provides stronger support for our theory than does our original. The explanation is that Will left the learning rate at the upper limit of 1.0, the level we assumed in our original paper. When we lowered the learning rate to compensate for the removal of the contested assumption, the results showed how mobility can lead to an increase in trust, which is consistent with our explanation for higher trust in the US compared to Japan. Moreover, the model also shows that it is possible for there to be too much mobility.Trust, Mobility, Replication

Love and Power: Grau and Pury (2014) as a Case Study in the Challenges of X-Phi Replication

Grau and Pury (Review of Philosophy and Psychology, 5, 155–168, 2014) reported that people’s views about love are related to their views about reference. This surprising effect was however not replicated in Cova et al.’s (in press) replication study. In this article, we show that the replication failure is probably due to the replication’s low power and that a metaanalytic reanalysis of the result in Cova et al. suggests that the effect reported in Grau and Pury is real. We then report a large, highly powered replication that successfully replicates Grau and Pury 2014. This successful replication is a case study in the challenges involved in replicating scientific work, and our article contributes to the discussion of these challenges

Replications and Extensions in Marketing – Rarely Published But Quite Contrary

Replication is rare in marketing. Of 1,120 papers sampled from three major marketing journals, none were replications. Only 1.8% of the papers were extensions, and they consumed 1.1% of the journal space. On average, these extensions appeared seven years after the original study. The publication rate for such works has been decreasing since the 1970s. Published extensions typically produced results that conflicted with the original studies; of the 20 extensions published, 12 conflicted with the earlier results, and only 3 provided full confirmation. Published replications do not attract as many citations after publication as do the original studies, even when the results fail to support the original studies

Making Progress in Forecasting

Twenty-five years ago, the International Institute of Forecasters was established “to bridge the gap between theory and practice.” Its primary vehicle was the Journal of Forecasting and is now the International Journal of Forecasting. The Institute emphasizes empirical comparisons of reasonable forecasting approaches. Such studies can be used to identify the best forecasting procedures to use under given conditions, a process we call evidence-based forecasting. Unfortunately, evidence-based forecasting meets resistance from academics and practitioners when the findings differ from currently accepted beliefs. As a consequence, although much progress has been made in developing improved forecasting methods, the diffusion of useful forecasting methods has been disappointing. To bridge the gap between theory and practice, we recommend a stronger emphasis on the method of multiple hypotheses and on invited replications of important research. It is then necessary to translate the findings into principles that are easy to understand and apply. The Internet and software provide important opportunities for making the latest findings available to researchers and practitioners. Because researchers and practitioners believe that their areas are unique, we should organize findings so that they are relevant to each area and make them easily available when people search for information about forecasting in their area. Organisational barriers to change still remain to be overcome. Research into the specific issues faced when forecasting remains a priority

Discovery and Communication of Important Marketing Findings: Evidence and Proposals

My review of empirical research on scientific publication led to the following conclusions. Three criteria are useful for identifying whether findings are important: replication, validity, and usefulness. A fourth criterion, surprise, applies in some situations. Based on these criteria, important findings resulting from academic research in marketing seem to be rare. To a large extent, this rarity is due to a reward system that is built around subjective peer review. Rather than using peer review as a secret screening process, using an open process likely will improve papers and inform readers. Researchers, journals, business schools, funding agencies, and professional organizations can all contribute to improving the process. For example, researchers should do directed research on papers that contribute to principles. Journals should invite papers that contribute to principles. Business school administrators should reward researchers who make important findings. Funding agencies should base decisions on researchers' prior success in making important findings, and professional organizations should maintain web sites that describe what is known about principles and what research is needed on principles

MDCC: Multi-Data Center Consistency

Replicating data across multiple data centers not only allows moving the data closer to the user and, thus, reduces latency for applications, but also increases the availability in the event of a data center failure. Therefore, it is not surprising that companies like Google, Yahoo, and Netflix already replicate user data across geographically different regions. However, replication across data centers is expensive. Inter-data center network delays are in the hundreds of milliseconds and vary significantly. Synchronous wide-area replication is therefore considered to be unfeasible with strong consistency and current solutions either settle for asynchronous replication which implies the risk of losing data in the event of failures, restrict consistency to small partitions, or give up consistency entirely. With MDCC (Multi-Data Center Consistency), we describe the first optimistic commit protocol, that does not require a master or partitioning, and is strongly consistent at a cost similar to eventually consistent protocols. MDCC can commit transactions in a single round-trip across data centers in the normal operational case. We further propose a new programming model which empowers the application developer to handle longer and unpredictable latencies caused by inter-data center communication. Our evaluation using the TPC-W benchmark with MDCC deployed across 5 geographically diverse data centers shows that MDCC is able to achieve throughput and latency similar to eventually consistent quorum protocols and that MDCC is able to sustain a data center outage without a significant impact on response times while guaranteeing strong consistency

The direct perception hypothesis: perceiving the intention of another’s action hinders its precise imitation

We argue that imitation is a learning response to unintelligible actions, especially to social conventions. Various strands of evidence are converging on this conclusion, but further progress has been hampered by an outdated theory of perceptual experience. Comparative psychology continues to be premised on the doctrine that humans and nonhuman primates only perceive others’ physical ‘surface behavior’, while mental states are perceptually inaccessible. However, a growing consensus in social cognition research accepts the Direct Perception Hypothesis: primarily we see what others aim to do; we do not infer it from their motions. Indeed, physical details are overlooked – unless the action is unintelligible. On this basis we hypothesize that apes’ propensity to copy the goal of an action, rather than its precise means, is largely dependent on its perceived intelligibility. Conversely, children copy means more often than adults and apes because, uniquely, much adult human behavior is completely unintelligible to unenculturated observers due to the pervasiveness of arbitrary social conventions, as exemplified by customs, rituals, and languages. We expect the propensity to imitate to be inversely correlated with the familiarity of cultural practices, as indexed by age and/or socio-cultural competence. The Direct Perception Hypothesis thereby helps to parsimoniously explain the most important findings of imitation research, including children’s over-imitation and other species-typical and age-related variations

Discovery and Communication of Important Marketing Findings: Evidence and Proposals

My review of empirical research on scientific publication led to the following conclusions. Three criteria are useful for identifying whether findings are important: replication, validity, and usefulness. A fourth criterion, surprise, applies in some situations. Based on these criteria, important findings resulting from academic research in marketing seem to be rare. To a large extent, this rarity is due to a reward system that is built around subjective peer review. Rather than using peer review as a secret screening process, using an open process likely will improve papers and inform readers. Researchers, journals, business schools, funding agencies, and professional organizations can all contribute to improving the process. For example, researchers should do directed research on papers that contribute to principles. Journals should invite papers that contribute to principles. Business school administrators should reward researchers who make important findings. Funding agencies should base decisions on researchers' prior success in making important findings, and professional organizations should maintain web sites that describe what is known about principles and what research is needed on principles.marketing, marketing findings