The Stabilizing Role of Global Alliances in the Dynamics of Coalition Forming

Coalition forming is investigated among countries, which are coupled with short range interactions, under the influence of external fields produced by the existence of global alliances. The model rests on the natural model of coalition forming inspired from Statistical Physics, where instabilities are a consequence of decentralized maximization of the individual benefits of actors within their long horizon of rationality as the ability to envision a way through intermediate loosing states, to a better configuration. The effects of those external incentives on the interactions between countries and the eventual stabilization of coalitions are studied. The results shed a new light on the understanding of the complex phenomena of stabilization and fragmentation in the coalition dynamics and on the possibility to design stable coalitions. In addition to the formal implementation of the model, the phenomena is illustrated through some historical cases of conflicts in Western Europe.Comment: 19 pages, 12 figure