Rural Depopulation in a Rapidly Urbanizing America

In this brief, authors Kenneth Johnson and Daniel Lichter examine demographic trends in rural America, a region often overlooked in a nation dominated by urban interests. They report that nearly 35 percent of rural counties are experiencing protracted and significant population loss. Depopulation is the result of chronic rural outmigration, mostly by young adults, which contributes to fewer births. As the sizeable older population that did not migrate ages in place, the mortality rate rises. Rural depopulation is not universal. Some rural areas have experienced significant population growth for decades. The authors’ study provides a demographic window to the future and a sober forecast of continuing rural population decline in many economically depressed regions. Future rural population growth and decline clearly are deeply rooted in evolving patterns of migration, fertility, and mortality. It is past time to refocus our attention on the rural people and places left behind

Recent nonmetropolitan demographic trends in the Midwest

This research1 examines demographic trends in nonmetropolitan areas of the United States and the Midwest2 since the 1990 census using the federal-state series of county population estimates. Review of such timely information is important because nonmetropolitan demographic trends have been extremely fluid during the past 30 years (Long and DeAre, 1988). Historically, nonmetropolitan demographic change, both in the Midwest and the US, has been dominated by an excess of births over deaths sufficient to offset the net ..

Rural Illinois in the 1990s: On the Rebound?

Rural areas of Illinois experienced a widespread population rebound between 1990 and 1995.2 These recent population gains in Illinois are consistent with a broader rural population growth revival nationwide. Rural Illinois gain nearly 24,000 residents between 1990 and 1995, according to recently released estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau.3 The population grew in 47 of the 74 nonmetropolitan counties in Illinois during the period. Migration to rural areas accounted for most of this population gain. Most urban areas in Illinois also gained population during the first half of the 1990s. The recent population gains in rural Illinois are modest, but they represent a significant change from the substantial population losses in the same areas during the 1980s

Straddling the Great Divide: Migration and Population Change in the Great Plains and Rocky Mountains

Within the collective conscious of the U.S. population, the Rocky Mountain region represents unspoiled natural beauty, recreational opportunities, solace, and an array of other pleasant factors, while the Great Plains is viewed by many as a landscape of limited physical, economic, and cultural interest. For most of the twentieth century, the Great Plains has been a region of net outmigration and population loss. During the early decades of the twentieth century, technological innovations in farm equipment reduced the need for an agricultural labor force and large numbers of individuals left the rural areas of the Great Plains. By the 1970s, economic restructuring and globalization further depleted the Great Plains of population as agribusinesses replaced the family farm as units of agricultural production. However, the Great Plains contains 876 counties spread over 13 states, and much variability in population change has occurred over the twentieth century with the western part of the Great Plains experiencing less of a decline in population than the central and eastern parts. Population change in the Rocky Mountains over the twentieth century experienced a much more inconsistent pattern of growth and decline than that of the Great Plains due to the boom and bust periods associated with the mining and lumbering industries. However, since the 1970s, the Rocky Mountains has experienced rapid net inmigration and population growth, largely a result of innovations in communication and transportation technology which led to less of a need for individuals to be rooted to a certain place, and allowed people to migrate to counties with environmental amenities

Population Change, Economic Restructuring, and the Evolving Landscape of Retail Activities in the Rural Great Plains

Over the past 15 to 20 years, changes such as retail concentration (fewer, larger stores owned by fewer corporations), technological innovation, and new labor practices have transformed the retail industry. These broad changes affect rural communities where the retail sector still employs a large portion of the workforce. When combined with the declining population of many rural areas in regions like the Great Plains, the impact of retail change is even more significant. Explored in this paper is how restructuring in the retail sector is accelerating the loss of retail firms in many rural parts of the Great Plains, a region already suffering retail losses from depopulation processes and increased accessibility to larger urban retail centers. The analysis presented will show the changes in retail that took place between 1988 and 1999, and investigate how retail restructuring and demographic change interact at the county level to produce new rural economic landscapes for people in the Great Plains, a situation that is likely to be found in other rural areas with similar demographic structures

The Conservation Reserve Program: Economic Implications for Rural America

This report estimates the impact that high levels of enrollment in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) have had on economic trends in rural counties since the program's inception in 1985 until today. The results of a growth model and quasi-experimental control group analysis indicate no discernible impact by the CRP on aggregate county population trends. Aggregate employment growth may have slowed in some high-CRP counties, but only temporarily. High levels of CRP enrollment appear to have affected farm-related businesses over the long run, but growth in the number of other nonfarm businesses moderated CRP's impact on total employment. If CRP contracts had ended in 2001, simulation models suggest that roughly 51 percent of CRP land would have returned to crop production, and that spending on outdoor recreation would decrease by as much as $300 million per year in rural areas. The resulting impacts on employment and income vary widely among regions having similar CRP enrollments, depending upon local economic conditions.Community/Rural/Urban Development, Land Economics/Use,

AGRICULTURAL PROCESSING PLANTS IN NORTH DAKOTA: SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS

The socioeconomic impact of four agricultural processing plants on their respective North Dakota communities was investigated. The objectives were (1) to evaluate the impact of plant construction and operation on economic, demographic, public service, and fiscal structures of rural areas and (2) to develop a set of general principles and recommended actions for community leaders to follow when a new agricultural processing facility is being considered. The selected communities were Carrington (Foster County), Jamestown (Stutsman County), New Rockford (Eddy County), and Wapheton (Richland County). In-depth personal interviews of community leaders were conducted in each community. In addition, a representative from the agricultural processing plant was also interviewed. Subsequently, a random drop-off/pick-up survey was conducted in the communities. A total of 469 questionnaires (85 percent response rate) were completed by community residents. Improved job opportunities and enhanced incomes were seen as major benefits to the local communities with the addition of the agricultural processing plants. Except for a few management and engineering positions, most of the available jobs were filled by area residents. The addition of the plants did not result in a large in-migration of people to fill positions. The residents' incomes were enhanced by the payroll of the plants. The areas where the plants are located had experienced a declining population base for some time. The siting of these plants did not reverse this trend; however, the employment of the processing plants did help slow the depopulation trend. The availability of 'affordable' housing was a concern in most of the communities. Most of the plant workers wages ($9-13/hour) would not allow for purchasing a new or existing homes in these communities. In one community, there were vacant homes which had been forfeited to the city in-lieu of property taxes. These homes have since been sold and are contributing property taxes to the community. Availability of day care was an issue in all communities. Also, if the plants operated on a 24 hour schedule, extended hour day care was an issue. Two of the communities in which the processing plants operated 24 hours per day offered extended hour day care, but in both cases the demand for extended day care did not justify the additional expense. The short- and long-term implications of local tax abatements were an issue for all communities. Some felt that local governments were leveraging the community's fiscal resources too much, while others believed that the community needed to be more concerned with the longer-term implications of tax abatements. At any rate, the consensus was that residents needed to be kept informed regarding commitments being made to a project and the implications of those commitments. Community leader advice to other communities considering economic development projects could generally be categorized as 1) appropriateness of project and compatibility with community, 2) infrastructure planning and financing, 3) anticipating issues and needs, and 4) development approach and attitude.agricultural processing, community impact, economic development, Agribusiness,

Placing the Standards

Rural areas in many parts of the U.S. experience population decline from outmigration. Geographic mobility has long been a contributing factor to the social and economic instability of rural communities; high-achieving and ambitious youth are inclined to leave rural areas to take advantage of the expansive economic opportunities and cultural and lifestyle amenities typically found in metropolitan locations. Here I review 20 years of research on rural population loss and migration theory to anticipate how patterns of rural youth mobility might intersect with the Common Core State Standards’ emphasis on preparing high-school students to be career and college ready. Given that the migration decisions of rural youth stem from a complex process that includes a range of social, economic, cultural, and environmental factors, I argue that certain types of rural communities are likely to be more strongly affected by the Common Core as are certain types of rural youth

Nonmetropolitan Population Trends: Twenty-first Century Updates

Population trends in the nonmetropolitan counties of the United States continue to be erratic. This study used 2008 population estimates to make comparisons of 2000-2008 population changes with those of the decades of the 1980s and 1990s. Findings showed that population changes during the early years of the 21st century were more reminiscent of the 1980s than the 1990s, as overall population growth was minimal and the number of counties losing population exceeded the number of counties with population growth. It appears that the first decade of the 21st century can be labeled as the “Rural Rebound Reversal” decade. The variable with the strongest relationship to population growth was a natural amenity scale. Throughout the study period, counties with more extensive amenity resources were much more likely to have population growth than counties lacking such amenity resources. Counties with more extensive urban influence also have more positive trends than other counties. The implications of these findings are discussed

Differential Population and Income Migration in the Great Plains, 1995- 1998

The depopulation of the Great Plains continues to draw the attention of rural scholars. However, a number of aspects of migration in the region remain poorly understood. For example, what differences exist among migrants in terms of their economic characteristics? Recent research shows that there is tremendous variability in the amount of income each migrant brings to or takes from a region. Using county-level Internal Revenue Service data for migration flows between 1995 and 1998, we explore the spatial patterns of income and population migration, while contrasting the income flows of in-migrants versus out-migrants. The results show that income flows out of the Great Plains exceed what might be expected given the pattern of net out-migration, and that many of the migration flows into the region may be reinforcing pockets of poverty. These findings should concern local officials worried about preserving public and private services in rural areas in the face of a declining population and tax base