International Evidence on Output Fluctuation and Shock Persistence

We estimate output growth rate spectra for 58 countries. The spectra exhibit diverse shapes. To study the sources of this diversity, we estimate the short-run, business cycle, and long-run frequency components of the sampled series. For most OECD countries the bulk of the spectral mass is in the business cycle frequency band, and the magnitude of this cyclical component increases with income. For the developing countries, however, the spectral mass is not concentrated in the business cycle frequency band, and the income-cycle relationship is not as strong. We also estimate two frequency domain measures of shock persistence and find both measures to vary considerably across countries, with the U.S. having the lowest estimates. For the OECD countries most of the variation in the variance ratio statistic appears to be explained by the variation in the long-term growth component.-Business Cycles, Developing Countries, OECD Countries, Output Growth, Shock Persistence, and Spectral Analysis.

International Evidence on Output Fluctuation and Shock Persistence

We estimate output growth rate spectra for 58 countries. The spectra exhibit diverse shapes. To study the sources of this diversity, we estimate the short-run, business cycle, and long-run frequency components of the sampled series. For most OECD countries the bulk of the spectral mass is in the business cycle frequency band, and the magnitude of this cyclical component increases with income. For the developing countries, however, the spectral mass is not concentrated in the business cycle frequency band, and the income-cycle relationship is not as strong. We also estimate two frequency domain measures of shock persistence and find both measures to vary considerably across countries, with the U.S. having the lowest estimates. For the OECD countries most of the variation in the variance ratio statistic appears to be explained by the variation in the long-term growth component.Business Cycles, Developing Countries, OECD Countries, Output Fluctuation, Output Growth, Shock Persistence, Spectral Analysis, Frequency Domain, Short Run, Long Run, Frequency Component, Income-Cycle Relationship, Variance Ratio Statistic

Financial sector and business cycles determinants in the EMU : an empirical approach (1996-2011)

This paper investigates potential business cycles determinants for the EMU countries among financial sector indicators examining at the same time the link between financial sector variables and business cycles volatility. We find that the total value of stocks traded, the private sector debt and the net inflows of FDI constitute significant determinants of business cycles fluctuations. Financial openness has an increasing effect on business cycles volatility while there is an unsettled relationship between financial depth and volatility. Another important finding of the paper is that the analysis provides evidence in favor of the occurrence of opportunistic political business cycles among EMU counterparts. The robustness of the above findings is verified via the use of relevant econometric methods such as EGLS, GLM and fixed-effect models.peer-reviewe

Habitat selection and breeding ecology of golden eagles in Sweden

The red-listed Golden Eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) population is estimated between 1200-1400 reproductive individuals in Sweden. This population is unusual as eagles predominantly nest in trees unlike most others that prefer cliffs. The central aim of this thesis was to study 1) reproductive performance in relation to food supply, 2) habitat composition of territories at different scales, 3) breeding home range size, and 4) habitat selection of Golden Eagles in Sweden. Data on annual breeding performance in 1980-2009 were obtained by regional Golden Eagle monitoring groups and data on indicators of food supplies by a long-term monitoring of small rodents, and for main prey species by hunting bag statistics for mountain hare and forest grouse. Adult Golden Eagles were trapped on their territories and fitted with GPS backpack transmitters in autumn 2010 and 2011, and position data from 2011 and 2012 breeding seasons were used for studying home range and habitat selection. Landcover maps and elevation data were used to characterize habitat properties in territories. Reproductive performance was highly variable among years, for example number of nestlings per breeding attempt ranged from 0.5-1.4 with a mean of >1, but this and other measures did not show 3-4 yr cycles as previously thought. However, both proportion of territories with nestlings and number of nestlings per occupied territory was positively related to primary prey (small game) indices in the same year. Habitat composition of territories was scale-dependent, with rugged terrain and old forest being overrepresented at the nest site scale, while clear-cuts on intermediate scales away from the nest. The GPS position data revealed some of the largest home ranges in Golden Eagle literature when derived from 50 and 95% kernel density estimators (KDE). In 2012, 50% KDEs ranged from approx. 5 − 110km², while 95% KDEs ranged from 70 − 580km². Home range size displayed a negative relationship to the proportion of clear-cuts within each home range. Analyses based on position data confirmed that the Eagles preferred coniferous forest, clear-cuts and steeper slopes. The here identified habitat and landscape preferences can be used for landscape management in the boreal region to support Golden Eagles

Book notices and Book reviews

Book notices and Book reviews from Volume 1, Number 2, 1967 of Earth Science Journal

Obliquity-driven expansion of North Atlantic sea ice during the last glacial

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 42 (2015): 10,382–10,390, doi:10.1002/2015GL066344.North Atlantic late Pleistocene climate (60,000 to 11,650 years ago) was characterized by abrupt and extreme millennial duration oscillations known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events. However, during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) 23,000 to 19,000 cal years ago (23 to 19 ka), no D-O events are observed in the Greenland ice cores. Our new analysis of the Greenland δ18O record reveals a switch in the stability of the climate system around 30 ka, suggesting that a critical threshold was passed. Climate system modeling suggests that low axial obliquity at this time caused vastly expanded sea ice in the Labrador Sea, shifting Northern Hemisphere westerly winds south and reducing the strength of meridional overturning circulation. The results suggest that these feedbacks tipped the climate system into full glacial conditions, leading to maximum continental ice growth during the LGM.Australian Research Council2016-06-1

Effects of circadian rhythm phase alteration on physiological and psychological variables: Implications to pilot performance (including a partially annotated bibliography)

The effects of environmental synchronizers upon circadian rhythmic stability in man and the deleterious alterations in performance and which result from changes in this stability are points of interest in a review of selected literature published between 1972 and 1980. A total of 2,084 references relevant to pilot performance and circadian phase alteration are cited and arranged in the following categories: (1) human performance, with focus on the effects of sleep loss or disturbance and fatigue; (2) phase shift in which ground based light/dark alteration and transmeridian flight studies are discussed; (3) shiftwork; (4)internal desynchronization which includes the effect of evironmental factors on rhythmic stability, and of rhythm disturbances on sleep and psychopathology; (5) chronotherapy, the application of methods to ameliorate desynchronization symptomatology; and (6) biorythm theory, in which the birthdate based biorythm method for predicting aircraft accident susceptability is critically analyzed. Annotations are provided for most citations

A Southern Hemisphere record of global trace-metal drawdown and orbital modulation of organic-matter burial across the Cenomanian–Turonian boundary (Ocean Drilling Program Site 1138, Kerguelen Plateau)

Despite its assumed global nature, there are very few detailed stratigraphic records of the late Cenomanian to the early Turonian Oceanic Anoxic Event 2 from the Southern Hemisphere. A highly resolved record of environmental changes across the Cenomanian\u2013Turonian boundary interval is presented from Ocean Drilling Program Site 1138 on the central Kerguelen Plateau (southern Indian Ocean). The new data lead to three key observations. Firstly, detailed biostratigraphy and chemostratigraphy indicate that the record of Oceanic Anoxic Event 2 is not complete, with a hiatus spanning the onset of the event. A decrease in glauconite and highly weathered clays after the onset of Oceanic Anoxic Event 2 marks the end of the hiatus interval, which can be explained by a relative sea-level rise that increased sediment accommodation space on the Kerguelen Plateau margin. This change in depositional environment controlled the timing of the delayed peak in organic-matter burial during Oceanic Anoxic Event 2 at Site 1138 compared with other Oceanic Anoxic Event 2 locations worldwide. A second key observation is the presence of cyclic fluctuations in the quantity and composition of organic matter being buried on the central Kerguelen Plateau throughout the latter stages of Oceanic Anoxic Event 2 and the early Turonian. A close correspondence between organic matter, sedimentary elemental compositions and sediments recording sea-floor oxygenation suggests that the cycles were mainly productivity-driven phenomena. Available age-control points constrain the periodicity of the coupled changes in sedimentary parameters to ca 20 to 70 ka, suggesting a link between carbon burial and astronomically forced climatic variations (precession or obliquity) in the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes both during, and after, Oceanic Anoxic Event 2: fluctuations that were superimposed on the impact of global-scale processes. Finally, trace-metal data from the black-shale unit at Site 1138 provide the first evidence from outside of the proto-North Atlantic region for a global drawdown of seawater trace-metal (Mo) inventories during Oceanic Anoxic Event 2