Susceptible exposed infectious recovered-machine learning for COVID-19 prediction in Saudi Arabia

Susceptible exposed infectious recovered (SEIR) is among the epidemiological models used in forecasting the spread of disease in large populations. SEIR is a fitting model for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) spread prediction. Somehow, in its original form, SEIR could not measure the impact of lockdowns. So, in the SEIR equations system utilized in this study, a variable was included to evaluate the impact of varying levels of social distance on the transmission of COVID-19. Additionally, we applied artificial intelligence utilizing the deep neural network machine learning (ML) technique. On the initial spread data for Saudi Arabia that were available up to June 25th, 2021, this improved SEIR model was used. The study shows possible infection to around 3.1 million persons without lockdown in Saudi Arabia at the peak of spread, which lasts for about 3 months beginning from the lockdown date (March 21st). On the other hand, the Kingdom's current partial lockdown policy was estimated to cut the estimated number of infections to 0.5 million over nine months. The data shows that stricter lockdowns may successfully flatten the COVID-19 graph curve in Saudi Arabia. We successfully predicted the COVID-19 epidemic's peaks and sizes using our modified deep neural network (DNN) and SEIR model

Stochastic Model Predictive Control for Autonomous Mobility on Demand

This paper presents a stochastic, model predictive control (MPC) algorithm that leverages short-term probabilistic forecasts for dispatching and rebalancing Autonomous Mobility-on-Demand systems (AMoD, i.e. fleets of self-driving vehicles). We first present the core stochastic optimization problem in terms of a time-expanded network flow model. Then, to ameliorate its tractability, we present two key relaxations. First, we replace the original stochastic problem with a Sample Average Approximation (SAA), and characterize the performance guarantees. Second, we separate the controller into two separate parts to address the task of assigning vehicles to the outstanding customers separate from that of rebalancing. This enables the problem to be solved as two totally unimodular linear programs, and thus easily scalable to large problem sizes. Finally, we test the proposed algorithm in two scenarios based on real data and show that it outperforms prior state-of-the-art algorithms. In particular, in a simulation using customer data from DiDi Chuxing, the algorithm presented here exhibits a 62.3 percent reduction in customer waiting time compared to state of the art non-stochastic algorithms.Comment: Submitting to the IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems 201

Toward real-world automated antibody design with combinatorial Bayesian optimization

Antibodies are multimeric proteins capable of highly specific molecular recognition. The complementarity determining region 3 of the antibody variable heavy chain (CDRH3) often dominates antigen-binding specificity. Hence, it is a priority to design optimal antigen-specific CDRH3 to develop therapeutic antibodies. The combinatorial structure of CDRH3 sequences makes it impossible to query binding-affinity oracles exhaustively. Moreover, antibodies are expected to have high target specificity and developability. Here, we present AntBO, a combinatorial Bayesian optimization framework utilizing a CDRH3 trust region for an in silico design of antibodies with favorable developability scores. The in silico experiments on 159 antigens demonstrate that AntBO is a step toward practically viable in vitro antibody design. In under 200 calls to the oracle, AntBO suggests antibodies outperforming the best binding sequence from 6.9 million experimentally obtained CDRH3s. Additionally, AntBO finds very-high-affinity CDRH3 in only 38 protein designs while requiring no domain knowledge