Prophet Inequalities with Limited Information

In the classical prophet inequality, a gambler observes a sequence of stochastic rewards $V_1,...,V_n$ and must decide, for each reward $V_i$, whether to keep it and stop the game or to forfeit the reward forever and reveal the next value $V_i$. The gambler's goal is to obtain a constant fraction of the expected reward that the optimal offline algorithm would get. Recently, prophet inequalities have been generalized to settings where the gambler can choose $k$ items, and, more generally, where he can choose any independent set in a matroid. However, all the existing algorithms require the gambler to know the distribution from which the rewards $V_1,...,V_n$ are drawn. The assumption that the gambler knows the distribution from which $V_1,...,V_n$ are drawn is very strong. Instead, we work with the much simpler assumption that the gambler only knows a few samples from this distribution. We construct the first single-sample prophet inequalities for many settings of interest, whose guarantees all match the best possible asymptotically, \emph{even with full knowledge of the distribution}. Specifically, we provide a novel single-sample algorithm when the gambler can choose any $k$ elements whose analysis is based on random walks with limited correlation. In addition, we provide a black-box method for converting specific types of solutions to the related \emph{secretary problem} to single-sample prophet inequalities, and apply it to several existing algorithms. Finally, we provide a constant-sample prophet inequality for constant-degree bipartite matchings. We apply these results to design the first posted-price and multi-dimensional auction mechanisms with limited information in settings with asymmetric bidders

Show Me the Money: Dynamic Recommendations for Revenue Maximization

Recommender Systems (RS) play a vital role in applications such as e-commerce and on-demand content streaming. Research on RS has mainly focused on the customer perspective, i.e., accurate prediction of user preferences and maximization of user utilities. As a result, most existing techniques are not explicitly built for revenue maximization, the primary business goal of enterprises. In this work, we explore and exploit a novel connection between RS and the profitability of a business. As recommendations can be seen as an information channel between a business and its customers, it is interesting and important to investigate how to make strategic dynamic recommendations leading to maximum possible revenue. To this end, we propose a novel \model that takes into account a variety of factors including prices, valuations, saturation effects, and competition amongst products. Under this model, we study the problem of finding revenue-maximizing recommendation strategies over a finite time horizon. We show that this problem is NP-hard, but approximation guarantees can be obtained for a slightly relaxed version, by establishing an elegant connection to matroid theory. Given the prohibitively high complexity of the approximation algorithm, we also design intelligent heuristics for the original problem. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments on two real and synthetic datasets and demonstrate the efficiency, scalability, and effectiveness our algorithms, and that they significantly outperform several intuitive baselines.Comment: Conference version published in PVLDB 7(14). To be presented in the VLDB Conference 2015, in Hawaii. This version gives a detailed submodularity proo