Optimal inference in a class of regression models

We consider the problem of constructing confidence intervals (CIs) for a linear functional of a regression function, such as its value at a point, the regression discontinuity parameter, or a regression coefficient in a linear or partly linear regression. Our main assumption is that the regression function is known to lie in a convex function class, which covers most smoothness and/or shape assumptions used in econometrics. We derive finite-sample optimal CIs and sharp efficiency bounds under normal errors with known variance. We show that these results translate to uniform (over the function class) asymptotic results when the error distribution is not known. When the function class is centrosymmetric, these efficiency bounds imply that minimax CIs are close to efficient at smooth regression functions. This implies, in particular, that it is impossible to form CIs that are tighter using data-dependent tuning parameters, and maintain coverage over the whole function class. We specialize our results to inference on the regression discontinuity parameter, and illustrate them in simulations and an empirical application.Comment: 39 pages plus supplementary material

A chain rule for the expected suprema of Gaussian processes

The expected supremum of a Gaussian process indexed by the image of an index set under a function class is bounded in terms of separate properties of the index set and the function class. The bound is relevant to the estimation of nonlinear transformations or the analysis of learning algorithms whenever hypotheses are chosen from composite classes, as is the case for multi-layer models