Capital Flight versus Domestic Investment in Developing Countries: An Empirical Analysis from Nigeria

Capital flight is a challenge for many developing countries of the world. The problem is more acute in a country like Nigeria where domestic investment has been severely affected. The study undertakes an empirical investigation of the problem using variables of investment, exchange rates and others in a vector error correction mechanism and the ordinary least regression analyses to test the level of significance of the impacts of each of the adopted variables. The results indicate that capital flight has negative but insignificant impact on domestic investment in Nigeria. This is as a result of the high level of capital flight or low level of investment undertaken over the years in the economy. The basic variable involved in the two is the exchange rate which is significant in investment but insignificant in capital flight. The paper recommends further floating of the exchange rate and transparency in its management. It also recommends that policies to encourage autonomous investment by both private and public sector be put in place

Evaluation of macroeconomic models for financial stability analysis

As financial stability has gained focus in economic policymaking, the demand for analyses of financial stability and the consequences of economic policy has increased. Alternative macroeconomic models are available for policy analyses, and this paper evaluates the usefulness of some models from the perspective of financial stability. Financial stability analyses are complicated by the lack of a clear and consensus definition of ‘financial stability’, and the paper concludes that operational definitions of this term must be expected to vary across alternative models. Furthermore, since assessment of financial stability in general is based on a wide range of risk factors, one can not expect one single model to satisfactorily capture all the risk factors. Rather, a suite of models is needed. This is in particular true for the evaluation of risk factors originating and developing inside and outside the financial system respectively.Financial stability; Banks; Default; Macroeconomic models; Policy

Evaluation of macroeconomic models for financial stability analysis

As financial stability has gained focus in economic policymaking, the demand for analyses of financial stability and the consequences of economic policy has increased. Alternative macroeconomic models are available for policy analyses, and this paper evaluates the usefulness of some models from the perspective of financial stability. Financial stability analyses are complicated by the lack of a clear and consensus definition of ‘financial stability’, and the paper concludes that operational definitions of this term must be expected to vary across alternative models. Furthermore, since assessment of financial stability in general is based on a wide range of risk factors, one can not expect one single model to satisfactorily capture all the risk factors. Rather, a suite of models is needed. This is in particular true for the evaluation of risk factors originating and developing inside and outside the financial system respectively.Financial stability; Banks; Default; Macroeconomic models; Policy

Constituting monetary conservatives via the 'savings habit': New Labour and the British housing market bubble

The ongoing world credit crunch might well kill off the most recent bubble dynamics in the British housing market by driving prices systematically downwards from their 2007 peak. Nonetheless, the experience of that bubble still warrants analytical attention. The Labour Government might not have been responsible for consciously creating it, but it has certainly grasped the opportunities the bubble has provided in an attempt to enforce a process of agential change at the heart of the British economy. The key issue in this respect is the way in which the Government has challenged the legitimacy of passive welfare receipts in favour of establishing a welfare system based on incorporating the individual into an active asset-holding society. The housing market has taken on new political significance as a means for individuals first to acquire assets and then to accumulate wealth on the back of asset ownership. The ensuing integration of the housing market into an increasingly reconfigured welfare system has permeated into the politics of everyday life. It has been consistent with individuals remaking their political subjectivities in line with preferences for the type of conservative monetary policies that typically keep house price bubbles inflated

Short-Term Capital Flows, The Real Economy and Income Distribution in Developing Countries

The volatility of short-term capital flows (or 'capital surges') is now recognized as a major problem for macroeconomic management in developing countries; but the consequences for the 'real' economy - that is, the behaviour of government, firms and households which subsequently translates into investment, growth, employment and welfare - is less well understood. Short-term capital flow instability arises from the desire of investors to hold liquid assets in the face of uncertainty; affecting the real economy both through variations in both prices such as the interest rate and the exchange rate, and quantities such as levels of bank credit and government bond sales. In this chapter, government expenditure is shown to respond in an asymmetric manner to sudden changes in investor perceptions of fiscal solvency associated with portfolio capital surges. The impact of short flows on output and investment by firms through the availability of bank credit is also found to be large and asymmetric. The macroeconomic effect of capital surges on employment levels and the real wage rate is shown to arise from their influence on real exchange rates and domestic demand levels, although whether employment or wages adjust depends the monetary stabilization policy adopted. The chapter concludes with some implications of the analysis for longer-term growth and policy design.

Dollarization Persistence and Individual Heterogeneity

The most salient feature of financial dollarization, and the one that causes more concern to policymakers, is its persistence: even after successful macroeconomic stabilizations, dollarization ratios often remain high. In this paper we claim that this persistence is connected to the fact that the participants in the dollar deposit market are fairly heterogenous, and so is the way they form their optimal currency portfolio. We develop a simple model when agents differ in their ability to process information, which turns out to be enough to generate persistence upon aggregation. We find empirical support for this claim with data from three Latin American countries and Poland.Dollarization, individual heterogeneity, persistence, aggregation

Enterprises in Transition: Macroeconomic Influences on Enterprise Decision-Making and Performance

This paper analyses the theoretical arguments and empirical evidence linking enterprise performance in transition economies to the macroeconomic environment. Macroeconomic instability is traced to the unsustainability of the fiscal-financial and monetary programmes of the state and to regulatory and other failures leading to problems with the solvency of financial institutions. The importance of macroeconomic stability for enterprise performance is documented with a simulation study and by reviewing relevant microeconomic and aggregate empirical evidence from across the world, as well as from the transition economies themselves. Conclusions are reached about the speed of transition, about the synergy between macroeconomic stabilisation and market development and about the creation of institutions for achieving and maintaining macroeconomic stability.

Dollarization Persistence and Individual Heterogeneity

The most salient feature of financial dollarization, and the one that causes more concern to policy makers, is its persistence: even after successful macroeconomic stabilizations, dollarization ratios often remain high. In this paper we claim that this persistence is connected to the fact that the participants in the dollar deposit market are fairly heterogenous, and so is the way they form their optimal currency portfolio.We develop as simple model when agents differ in their ability to process information, which turns out to be enough to generate persistence up on aggregation. We find empirical support for this claim with data from three Latin American countries and Poland.Dollarization, individual heterogeneity, persistence, aggregation

The role of pension funds as institutional investors in emerging markets

In recent years, a growing number of Emerging Market Economies, as well as most advanced countries, have witnessed growth of pension funds as institutional investors. This has often occurred in the wake of pension reform shifting retirement income provision from pay-as-you-go to funding. The ongoing ageing of the population and financing difficulties of pay-as-you-go systems suggests that such reforms will become yet more common in the future. Accordingly, it is important to analyse the impact of institutional investment on the economy. In this context, our aim is to address the role of pension funds as institutional investors in financial development, and the wider effects of such financial development on economic performance. We note inter alia some of the ways in which the behaviour and impact of institutional investors might differ in emerging market economies from advanced countries as well as policy issues

An Empirical Investigation of Capital Flight from Zimbabwe

This paper investigates the causes of capital flight from Zimbabwe for the period 1980 to 2005. The results show external debt, foreign direct investment inflows, and foreign reserves to be the major causers of capital flight. Economic growth is negatively correlated with capital flight. The calculations estimate Zimbabwean capital flight at US $10.1 billion over the 1980 to 2005 period, with capital flight-to-GDP ratio roughly 5.4 per cent. In other words, for every US dollar of GDP accumulated by Zimbabwe annual from 1980 to 2005, private Zimbabwean residents accumulated (US) 5.4 cents of external assets annually during the same period.Capital flight, external debt, foreign direct investment inflows, macroeconomic instability