Growth diagnostics for a resource-rich transition economy : the case of Mongolia

This paper uses a growth diagnostics approach à la Hausmann, Rodrik, and Velasco (HRV) to identify the most'binding'constraints to private sector growth in Mongolia - a small, low-income, mineral-rich, transition economy. The approach of applying the HRV methodology is useful in those cases where a lack of data prevents us from estimating shadow prices to identify the most'binding'constraint to growth. We find that although Mongolia is not liquidity constrained and has grown rapidly in recent years, economic growth has been narrowly based. Investment has flowed mainly into a small number of firms operating in mining and construction. The low level of private investment in sectors outside mining and construction has been due to low returns - a result of costly and unreliable transportation services; lengthy and complex transit procedures, including customs and trade rules; distortionary taxes; coordination failures, at both domestic and international levels; and growing corruption. Poor financial intermediation is also a problem that has kept the cost of finance high, although lower than in previous years. Alleviating these binding constraints will ensure that Mongolia maintains the path towards sustained, broad-based growth.Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Debt Markets,Economic Theory&Research,,Emerging Markets

Challenges and Opportunities of Small Countries for Integration into the Global Economy, as a Case of Mongolia

This paper examines the impacts of globalization on small countries, covering the main features of globalization, the quality of national economic and commercial environment, main characteristics of small countries including important facts and concrete indicators for their development, and their challenges and opportunities for regional integration. It concludes that: 1) globalization is a process of continuing integration of the countries of the world that is beneficial, inevitable and irreversible. No any country can afford to remain isolated from the world economy. 2) some of small countries might have higher income and much richer than others. But all small countries do not posse such an advantage. Therefore, the small countries were in this paper differently considered according to their per capita income level which varies significantly from each others. 3) For most developing countries, in particular the small and poor countries, a North-South Regional Integration Agreement with a large industrial country is likely to be superior to a South-South Regional Integration Agreement with a developing or poor small country. --Globalization,small countries,economic integration,income distribution

Mongolia - Privatization and system transformation in an isolated economy

The authors examine the process of economic transformation in Mongolia, a huge, isolated, sparsely populated country. After identifying factors that led to formulation of a radical adjustment program in such an isolated country, they focus on Mongolia's innovative voucher privatization scheme, and the interplay between the speed of contraction in resource availability and that of the movement to a market economy. They show that the reform process was not smooth: that after the rapid formulation and implementation of major reforms, there was a marked slowdown, when reform timetables were revised and a more gradualist approach adopted. Later, reforms driven by the privatization program picked up momentum again. But one important lesson learned in Mongolia is that voters are likely to shy away from radical reformers when faced with growing shortages and a collapsing economy. In June 1922, the Mongolian People's Revolutionary Party (the former communist party) was returned to power in general elections, capturing 72 of 76 parliamentary seats. The authors identify factors related to speed versus caution: organization and institutional limitations; political considerations; whether a model of transformation exists; and a contracting resource envelope. Using a simple computable general equilibrium model, they analyze the impact of the cutoff of Soviet aid, which amounted to 30 percent of GDP, and of the disruption of trade. They conclude that preventing a decline in welfare of more than 20 percent - which is close to the decline in 1991 - would require aid flows of about 15 percent of GDP. Their model suggests that the rural sector is reasonably well insulated from external shocks, in sharp contrast with the urban sector. One response scenario explored by the model is that of massive reverse migration to rural areas. They point out that the more the resource envelope tightens and squeezes away the margin above subsistence, the harder it will be to sustain an orderly pattern of reform. In the extreme, this pattern may force the country to adopt a rationed wartime economy, despite intentions to shift to a market system.Economic Theory&Research,Banks&Banking Reform,Environmental Economics&Policies,Municipal Financial Management,Access to Markets

The distribution of foreign direct investment in China

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has played a major role in China's push toward a market-oriented economy. Recent inflows account for 40 percent of combined flows of FDI to all developing countries, making China the biggest developing country FDI recipient. This record is impressive, but certain problems must be overcome if FDI is to continue to help sustain the country's record growth rate and further its economic development. For one thing, FDI in China is highly concentrated geographically, and its sector distribution is highly uneven. The authors empirically analyze the geographic determinants of FDI in China. They find that FDI's geographical distribution in China is determined mostly by GNP, infrastructure development, level of general education, and coastal location. Althoughthe sectoral distribution of FDI is coming into line with the rest of the world, in the past, FDI has been biased toward speculative types of investment, especially in the real estate sector.International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Environmental Economics&Policies,Banks&Banking Reform,Foreign Direct Investment,Economic Theory&Research

Trade and Investment Linkages and Policy Coordination: Lessons from Case Studies in Asian Developing Countries

The Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT) launched an exploratory study on trade and investment policy linkages and coordination in 2007 , which included exploratory surveys of private sector stakeholders in three South-Asian countries (Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka) on the need for improved trade and investment policy coordination and coherence based on the Policy Framework for Investment (PFI) developed by OECD. Following a short overview of trade and investment linkages from an Asian perspective, this paper summarizes the key findings from the exploratory surveys and draw preliminary policy implications.Trade and Investment Linkages and Policy Coordination, Asian Developing Countries

R&D offshoring and technology learning in emerging economies: Firm-level evidence from the ICT industry

This paper studies the impact of the R&D offshoring of multinational enterprises on the firms in host emerging economies. We develop a two-stage non-cooperative game to analyze the strategic interaction between multinational and host country enterprises engaged in R&D investment. An empirical analysis of 12,309 manufacturing firms in the ICT industry in China shows that R&D offshoring has a positive effect on the intensity of the R&D of host country firms. However, the magnitude of the impact depends on both the technological and geographical distance between the multinational and host country firms. The policy implications of these findings are that the governments of host country should be cautious about allowing advanced multinational R&D investment in under-developed sectors, but they should encourage such investment in developed sectors; and that local governments should be involved in R&D policy making because the positive impact of multinational R&D offshoring diminishes as the geographical distance between the multinational and host country firms increases.Research and Development, Offshoring, Spillovers, Emerging Economies

Resource Management and Transition in Central Asia, Azerbaijan, and Mongolia

The paper presents a comparative analysis of the resource-rich transition economies of Mongolia and the southern republics of the former Soviet Union. For Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, the ability to earn revenue from cotton exports allowed them to avoid reform. Oil in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan was associated with large-scale corruption, but with soaring revenues in the 2000s their institutions evolved and to some extent improved. Kyrgyzstan and Mongolia illustrate the challenges facing small economies with large potential mineral resources, with the former suffering from competition for rents among the elite and the latter from lost opportunities. Overall the countries illustrate that a resource curse is not inevitable among transition economies, but a series of hurdles need to be surmounted to benefit from resource abundance. Neither the similar initial institutions nor those created in the 1990s are immutable.Oil, Gas, Minerals, Central Asia, Resource Curse

Exploiting Energy and Mineral Resources in Central Asia, Azerbaijan and Mongolia

Recent literature has focussed on institutional degradation and revenue volatility as major sources of a resource curse. Formerly centrally planned countries may be especially vulnerable due to their mutating institutions and macropolicy inexperience. This paper examines these issues through case studies of six former Soviet republics and Mongolia. The principal focus is on the methods of involving foreign partners in exploration and exploitation of natural resources and, to a lesser extent, on the use of revenues during resource booms. The consequences of alternative resource ownership patterns are difficult to model due to path dependency and the significance of the conjuncture of circumstances. Kazakhstan in the 1990s was a prime example of rent-seeking institutional degradation, but an exceptionally positive conjuncture in the 2000s (soaring oil prices, large oil and gas discoveries, and new pipelines) triggered institutional and policy evolution. Uzbekistan, by contrast, had less resource-rent-driven institutional degradation in the 1990s, but stagnated in the 2000s. Turkmenistan and Mongolia highlight the missed opportunities from not involving foreign partners, while Azerbaijan and the Kyrgyz Republic illustrate the less predictable outcomes following quick deals with foreign investors. Institutions matter, but the case studies suggest more complex relationships than revealed by simple correlations between indicators of institutional quality or of ownership patterns.oil, gas, minerals, Central Asia, resource curse

Central Asia : Mapping Future Prospects

Central Asia has emerged as one of the worlds fastest growing regions since the late 1990s and has shown notable development potential. This is significant for a region comprising largely of small landlocked economies with no access to the sea for trade. Among the advantages, of the region are its high- priced commodities (oil, gas, cotton and gold), reasonable infrastructure and human capital as legacies of Soviet rule; and a strategic location between Asia and Europe. Furthermore, many Central Asian Republics (CARs) have embarked on market-oriented economic reforms to boost economic performance and private sector competitiveness. Central Asia : Mapping Future Prospects considers the regions economic prospects to 2015. It charts recent economic performance, highlighting the economic revival. It also synthesizes recent forecasts and constructs scenarios for future economic variables against a constant global background. Projections include, among others, gross domestic product (GDP), manufactured exports per head, GDP per capita and poverty. A special theme chapter develops a manufacturing competitiveness index to compare the CARs with other transition economies and explores the impact of economic reform and supply-side factors (e.g. foreign investment and human capital) on industrial performancecentral Asia, future economic variables, gross domestic product, manufactured exports per head, GDP per capita, poverty, manufacturing competitiveness index