8,795 research outputs found

    Agent-based Modeling And Market Microstructure

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    In most modern financial markets, traders express their preferences for assets by making orders. These orders are either executed if a counterparty is willing to match them or collected in a priority queue, called a limit order book. Such markets are said to adopt an order-driven trading mechanism. A key question in this domain is to model and analyze the strategic behavior of market participants, in response to different definitions of the trading mechanism (e.g., the priority queue changed from the continuous double auctions to the frequent call market). The objective is to design financial markets where pernicious behavior is minimized.The complex dynamics of market activities are typically studied via agent-based modeling (ABM) methods, enriched by Empirical Game-Theoretic Analysis (EGTA) to compute equilibria amongst market players and highlight the market behavior (also known as market microstructure) at equilibrium. This thesis contributes to this research area by evaluating the robustness of this approach and providing results to compare existing trading mechanisms and propose more advanced designs.In Chapter 4, we investigate the equilibrium strategy profiles, including their induced market performance, and their robustness to different simulation parameters. For two mainstream trading mechanisms, continuous double auctions (CDAs) and frequent call markets (FCMs), we find that EGTA is needed for solving the game as pure strategies are not a good approximation of the equilibrium. Moreover, EGTA gives generally sound and robust solutions regarding different market and model setups, with the notable exception of agents’ risk attitudes. We also consider heterogeneous EGTA, a more realistic generalization of EGTA whereby traders can modify their strategies during the simulation, and show that fixed strategies lead to sufficiently good analyses, especially taking the computation cost into consideration.After verifying the reliability of the ABM and EGTA methods, we follow this research methodology to study the impact of two widely adopted and potentially malicious trading strategies: spoofing and submission of iceberg orders. In Chapter 5, we study the effects of spoofing attacks on CDA and FCM markets. We let one spoofer (agent playing the spoofing strategy) play with other strategic agents and demonstrate that while spoofing may be profitable in both market models, it has less impact on FCMs than on CDAs. We also explore several FCM mechanism designs to help curb this type of market manipulation even further. In Chapter 6, we study the impact of iceberg orders on the price and order flow dynamics in financial markets. We find that the volume of submitted orders significantly affects the strategy choice of the other agents and the market performance. In general, when agents observe a large volume order, they tend to speculate instead of providing liquidity. In terms of market performance, both efficiency and liquidity will be harmed. We show that while playing the iceberg-order strategy can alleviate the problem caused by the high-volume orders, submitting a large enough order and attracting speculators is better than taking the risk of having fewer trades executed with iceberg orders.We conclude from Chapters 5 and 6 that FCMs have some exciting features when compared with CDAs and focus on the design of trading mechanisms in Chapter 7. We verify that CDAs constitute fertile soil for predatory behavior and toxic order flows and that FCMs address the latency arbitrage opportunities built in those markets. This chapter studies the extent to which adaptive rules to define the length of the clearing intervals — that might move in sync with the market fundamentals — affect the performance of frequent call markets. We show that matching orders in accordance with these rules can increase efficiency and selfish traders’ surplus in a variety of market conditions. In so doing, our work paves the way for a deeper understanding of the flexibility granted by adaptive call markets

    Southern Adventist University Undergraduate Catalog 2023-2024

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    Southern Adventist University\u27s undergraduate catalog for the academic year 2023-2024.https://knowledge.e.southern.edu/undergrad_catalog/1123/thumbnail.jp

    Non-Market Food Practices Do Things Markets Cannot: Why Vermonters Produce and Distribute Food That\u27s Not For Sale

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    Researchers tend to portray food self-provisioning in high-income societies as a coping mechanism for the poor or a hobby for the well-off. They describe food charity as a regrettable band-aid. Vegetable gardens and neighborly sharing are considered remnants of precapitalist tradition. These are non-market food practices: producing food that is not for sale and distributing food in ways other than selling it. Recent scholarship challenges those standard understandings by showing (i) that non-market food practices remain prevalent in high-income countries, (ii) that people in diverse social groups engage in these practices, and (iii) that they articulate diverse reasons for doing so. In this dissertation, I investigate the persistent pervasiveness of non-market food practices in Vermont. To go beyond explanations that rely on individual motivation, I examine the roles these practices play in society. First, I investigate the prevalence of non-market food practices. Several surveys with large, representative samples reveal that more than half of Vermont households grow, hunt, fish, or gather some of their own food. Respondents estimate that they acquire 14% of the food they consume through non-market means, on average. For reference, commercial local food makes up about the same portion of total consumption. Then, drawing on the words of 94 non-market food practitioners I interviewed, I demonstrate that these practices serve functions that markets cannot. Interviewees attested that non-market distribution is special because it feeds the hungry, strengthens relationships, builds resilience, puts edible-but-unsellable food to use, and aligns with a desired future in which food is not for sale. Hunters, fishers, foragers, scavengers, and homesteaders said that these activities contribute to their long-run food security as a skills-based safety net. Self-provisioning allows them to eat from the landscape despite disruptions to their ability to access market food such as job loss, supply chain problems, or a global pandemic. Additional evidence from vegetable growers suggests that non-market settings liberate production from financial discipline, making space for work that is meaningful, playful, educational, and therapeutic. Non-market food practices mend holes in the social fabric torn by the commodification of everyday life. Finally, I synthesize scholarly critiques of markets as institutions for organizing the production and distribution of food. Markets send food toward money rather than hunger. Producing for market compels farmers to prioritize financial viability over other values such as stewardship. Historically, people rarely if ever sell each other food until external authorities coerce them to do so through taxation, indebtedness, cutting off access to the means of subsistence, or extinguishing non-market institutions. Today, more humans than ever suffer from chronic undernourishment even as the scale of commercial agriculture pushes environmental pressures past critical thresholds of planetary sustainability. This research substantiates that alternatives to markets exist and have the potential to address their shortcomings

    UMSL Bulletin 2023-2024

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    The 2023-2024 Bulletin and Course Catalog for the University of Missouri St. Louis.https://irl.umsl.edu/bulletin/1088/thumbnail.jp

    Essays in Behavioral Economics and Game Theory

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    This thesis consists of three papers. Chapter 1 conducts experimental research on individual bounded rationality in games, Chapter 2 introduces a novel equilibrium solution concept in behavioral game theory, and Chapter 3 investigates confirmation bias within the framework of game theory. In Chapter 1 (joint with Wei James Chen and Po-Hsuan Lin), we investigate individual strategic reasoning depths by matching human subjects with fully rational computer players in a lab, allowing for the isolation of limited reasoning ability from beliefs about opponent players and social preferences. Our findings reveal that when matched with robots, subjects demonstrate higher stability in their strategic thinking depths across games, in contrast to when matched with humans. In Chapter 2 (joint with Po-Hsuan Lin and Thomas R. Palfrey), we investigate how players’ misunderstanding about the relationship between opponents’ private information and strategies influence their equilibrium behavior in dynamic environments. This theoretical study introduces a framework that extends the analysis of cursed equilibrium from the strategic form to multi-stage games and applies it to various applications in economics and political science. In Chapter 3, I employ a game-theoretic framework to model how decision makers strategically interpret signals, particularly when they face a utility loss from holding beliefs that differ from their partners. The study reveals that the emergence of confirmation bias is positively associated with the strength of prior beliefs about a state, while the impact of signal accuracy remains ambiguous.</p

    LIPIcs, Volume 251, ITCS 2023, Complete Volume

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    LIPIcs, Volume 251, ITCS 2023, Complete Volum

    Spectrum auctions: designing markets to benefit the public, industry and the economy

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    Access to the radio spectrum is vital for modern digital communication. It is an essential component for smartphone capabilities, the Cloud, the Internet of Things, autonomous vehicles, and multiple other new technologies. Governments use spectrum auctions to decide which companies should use what parts of the radio spectrum. Successful auctions can fuel rapid innovation in products and services, unlock substantial economic benefits, build comparative advantage across all regions, and create billions of dollars of government revenues. Poor auction strategies can leave bandwidth unsold and delay innovation, sell national assets to firms too cheaply, or create uncompetitive markets with high mobile prices and patchy coverage that stifles economic growth. Corporate bidders regularly complain that auctions raise their costs, while government critics argue that insufficient revenues are raised. The cross-national record shows many examples of both highly successful auctions and miserable failures. Drawing on experience from the UK and other countries, senior regulator Geoffrey Myers explains how to optimise the regulatory design of auctions, from initial planning to final implementation. Spectrum Auctions offers unrivalled expertise for regulators and economists engaged in practical auction design or company executives planning bidding strategies. For applied economists, teachers, and advanced students this book provides unrivalled insights in market design and public management. Providing clear analytical frameworks, case studies of auctions, and stage-by-stage advice, it is essential reading for anyone interested in designing public-interested and successful spectrum auctions

    UMSL Bulletin 2022-2023

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    The 2022-2023 Bulletin and Course Catalog for the University of Missouri St. Louis.https://irl.umsl.edu/bulletin/1087/thumbnail.jp

    Reinforcement learning in large state action spaces

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    Reinforcement learning (RL) is a promising framework for training intelligent agents which learn to optimize long term utility by directly interacting with the environment. Creating RL methods which scale to large state-action spaces is a critical problem towards ensuring real world deployment of RL systems. However, several challenges limit the applicability of RL to large scale settings. These include difficulties with exploration, low sample efficiency, computational intractability, task constraints like decentralization and lack of guarantees about important properties like performance, generalization and robustness in potentially unseen scenarios. This thesis is motivated towards bridging the aforementioned gap. We propose several principled algorithms and frameworks for studying and addressing the above challenges RL. The proposed methods cover a wide range of RL settings (single and multi-agent systems (MAS) with all the variations in the latter, prediction and control, model-based and model-free methods, value-based and policy-based methods). In this work we propose the first results on several different problems: e.g. tensorization of the Bellman equation which allows exponential sample efficiency gains (Chapter 4), provable suboptimality arising from structural constraints in MAS(Chapter 3), combinatorial generalization results in cooperative MAS(Chapter 5), generalization results on observation shifts(Chapter 7), learning deterministic policies in a probabilistic RL framework(Chapter 6). Our algorithms exhibit provably enhanced performance and sample efficiency along with better scalability. Additionally, we also shed light on generalization aspects of the agents under different frameworks. These properties have been been driven by the use of several advanced tools (e.g. statistical machine learning, state abstraction, variational inference, tensor theory). In summary, the contributions in this thesis significantly advance progress towards making RL agents ready for large scale, real world applications

    Relaxing the symmetry assumption in participation games: A specification test for cluster heterogeneity

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    Published online: 05 April 2023. OnlinePublWe propose a novel approach to check whether individual behaviour in binary-choice participation games is consistent with the restrictions imposed by symmetric models. This approach allows in particular an assessment of how much cluster-heterogeneity a symmetric model can tolerate to remain consistent with its behavioural restrictions. We assess our approach with data from market-entry experiments which we analyse through the lens of ‘Exploration versus Exploration’ (EvE, which is equivalent to Logit-QRE) or of Impulse Balance Equilibrium (IBE). We find that when the symmetry assumption is imposed, both models are typically rejected when assuming pooled data and IBE yields more data-consistent estimates than EvE, i.e., IBE’s estimates of session and pooled data are more consistent than those of EvE. When relaxing symmetry, EvE (IBE) is rejected for 17% (42%) of the time. Although both models support cluster-heterogeneity, IBE is much less likely to yield over-parametrised specifications and insignificant estimates so it outperforms EvE in accommodating a model-consistent cluster-heterogeneity. The use of regularisation procedures in the estimations partially addresses EvE’s shortcomings but leaves our overall conclusions unchanged.Alan Kirman, François Laisney, Paul Pezanis, Christo
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