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    Twin Cities Area Economic and Business Conditions Report Fourth Quarter 2018

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    A slowing of economic growth is expected in the Twin Cities planning area according to the predictions of the Twin Cities Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). The Twin Cities LEI decreased 7.97 points in the fourth quarter of 2018 as all five index components registered negative values. A decrease in the Minnesota Business Conditions Index (a general measure of statewide business conditions), higher initial jobless claims in the region, and a decline in the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Minnesota Leading Economic Indicators Index series helped drive the Twin Cities LEI lower. Fewer residential building permits in the Twin Cities metropolitan area and a reduction in the number of new filings of incorporation and LLC in the region also unfavorably impacted the Twin Cities outlook. There were 10,321 new business filings with the Office of the Minnesota Secretary of State in the seven-county metro area in the fourth quarter of 2018—representing a 1.4 percent decrease from one year ago. 1,361 new regional business incorporations were tallied in the Twin Cities in the fourth quarter—4.6 percent fewer than year ago levels. Fourth quarter new LLC filings rose to 6,741 in the seven-county metro area—a 0.7 percent increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2017. New assumed names were 7.7 percent lower in the fourth quarter and there were 22 more new non-profit filings in the Twin Cities than one year ago. Fifty-nine percent of new business filers in the Twin Cities planning area completed the voluntary Minnesota Business Snapshot (MBS) survey in the fourth quarter. Results of this voluntary survey indicate that 16.6 percent of new filers come from communities of color. 4.8 percent of new filings are veterans. 2 percent of new filers come from the disability community and 10.8 percent of new filings are made by the immigrant community. Approximately thirty-seven percent of new business filings in the Twin Cities planning area in the fourth quarter were initiated by women. MBS results also show that most new business filers in the Twin Cities have between 0 and 10,000inannualgrossrevenues(although579newfilershaverevenuesinexcessof10,000 in annual gross revenues (although 579 new filers have revenues in excess of 50,000). The most popular industries for new businesses in the Twin Cities are professional/scientific/technical, retail trade, real estate/rental/leasing, construction, and other services. Employment levels at most new firms are between 0 and 5 workers, and 44.5 percent of those starting a new business consider this a part-time activity. Twin Cities planning area employment increased by 1.1 percent over the year ending December 2018. At 2.6 percent, the planning area’s unemployment rate was slightly lower than one year earlier. Initial claims for unemployment insurance were 3.4 percent lower than year ago levels and average weekly wages rose by 4.2 percent over the most recent year. The planning area’s labor force rose by 0.9 percent over the year ending December 2018. Average hourly earnings and average weekly work hours rose for private sector workers in the 16-county Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA over the year ending December 2018 and the relative cost of living rose in both Minneapolis and St. Paul. There was a 16.9 percent decline in the value of new residential building permits in the Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA over the year ending December 2018. The number of annual bankruptcies fell by 2.2 percent in the Twin Cities

    Twin Cities Area Economic and Business Conditions Report Fourth Quarter 2018

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    A slowing of economic growth is expected in the Twin Cities planning area according to the predictions of the Twin Cities Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). The Twin Cities LEI decreased 7.97 points in the fourth quarter of 2018 as all five index components registered negative values. A decrease in the Minnesota Business Conditions Index (a general measure of statewide business conditions), higher initial jobless claims in the region, and a decline in the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Minnesota Leading Economic Indicators Index series helped drive the Twin Cities LEI lower. Fewer residential building permits in the Twin Cities metropolitan area and a reduction in the number of new filings of incorporation and LLC in the region also unfavorably impacted the Twin Cities outlook. There were 10,321 new business filings with the Office of the Minnesota Secretary of State in the seven-county metro area in the fourth quarter of 2018—representing a 1.4 percent decrease from one year ago. 1,361 new regional business incorporations were tallied in the Twin Cities in the fourth quarter—4.6 percent fewer than year ago levels. Fourth quarter new LLC filings rose to 6,741 in the seven-county metro area—a 0.7 percent increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2017. New assumed names were 7.7 percent lower in the fourth quarter and there were 22 more new non-profit filings in the Twin Cities than one year ago. Fifty-nine percent of new business filers in the Twin Cities planning area completed the voluntary Minnesota Business Snapshot (MBS) survey in the fourth quarter. Results of this voluntary survey indicate that 16.6 percent of new filers come from communities of color. 4.8 percent of new filings are veterans. 2 percent of new filers come from the disability community and 10.8 percent of new filings are made by the immigrant community. Approximately thirty-seven percent of new business filings in the Twin Cities planning area in the fourth quarter were initiated by women. MBS results also show that most new business filers in the Twin Cities have between 0 and 10,000inannualgrossrevenues(although579newfilershaverevenuesinexcessof10,000 in annual gross revenues (although 579 new filers have revenues in excess of 50,000). The most popular industries for new businesses in the Twin Cities are professional/scientific/technical, retail trade, real estate/rental/leasing, construction, and other services. Employment levels at most new firms are between 0 and 5 workers, and 44.5 percent of those starting a new business consider this a part-time activity. Twin Cities planning area employment increased by 1.1 percent over the year ending December 2018. At 2.6 percent, the planning area’s unemployment rate was slightly lower than one year earlier. Initial claims for unemployment insurance were 3.4 percent lower than year ago levels and average weekly wages rose by 4.2 percent over the most recent year. The planning area’s labor force rose by 0.9 percent over the year ending December 2018. Average hourly earnings and average weekly work hours rose for private sector workers in the 16-county Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA over the year ending December 2018 and the relative cost of living rose in both Minneapolis and St. Paul. There was a 16.9 percent decline in the value of new residential building permits in the Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA over the year ending December 2018. The number of annual bankruptcies fell by 2.2 percent in the Twin Cities

    Twin Cities Minnesota Economic and Business Conditions Report - Second Quarter 2017

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    Steady economic growth is expected over the next several months in the Twin Cities according to the prediction of the St. Cloud State University Twin Cities Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). The Twin Cities LEI rose 2.54 points in the second quarter after a strong reading in the previous quarter. Three of five index components increased in the second quarter. Lower initial claims for unemployment insurance in the region had a favorable impact on this quarter’s LEI. Strength in the Minnesota Business Conditions Index--a general measure of statewide business conditions—also had a positive effect on the index. Increased new filings of business incorporation and LLC also helped lift the Twin Cities LEI. There were 10,835 new business filings with the Office of the Minnesota Secretary of State in the seven-county metro area in the second quarter of 2017—representing a 6.4 percent increase from one year ago. There were 1,475 new regional business incorporations in the second quarter, 0.9 percent fewer than year ago levels. Second quarter new LLC filings rose to 6,975 in the seven-county metro area—an 11.6 percent increase compared to the second quarter of 2016. New assumed names were 2.5 percent lower in the second quarter and there were 12 fewer new non-profit filings in the Twin Cities than one year ago. Sixty percent of new business filers in the Twin Cities planning area completed the voluntary Minnesota Business Snapshot (MBS) survey in this year’s second quarter. Results of this voluntary survey indicate that almost 13 percent of new filers come from communities of color. Nearly 5 percent of new filings are veterans. About 2 percent of new filers come from the disability community and more than 8 percent of new filings are made by the immigrant community. Thirty-four percent of new business filings in the Twin Cities planning area in this year’s second quarter were initiated by women. MBS results also show that most new business filers in the Twin Cities have between 0 and 10,000inannualgrossrevenues(although652newfilershaverevenuesinexcessof10,000 in annual gross revenues (although 652 new filers have revenues in excess of 50,000). The most popular industries for new businesses in the Twin Cities are construction, retail trade, real estate/rental/leasing, professional/scientific/technical, arts/entertainment/recreation, and other services. Employment levels at most new firms are between 0 and 5 workers, and 43 percent of those starting a new business consider this a part-time activity. Twin Cities planning area employment increased by 2.7 percent over the year ending June 2017. At 3.5 percent, the planning area’s unemployment rate was lower than one year earlier. Initial claims for unemployment insurance were lower than year ago levels, falling by 7.1 percent to 6,867. Average weekly wages in the Twin Cities were lower than one year ago, although average weekly work hours and average hourly earnings rose for private sector workers in the 16-county Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA over the year ending June 2017. The planning area labor force increased by 2.5 percent over the year ending June 2017. Annual bankruptcies started to rise in the Twin Cities over the past twelve months. The relative cost of living in both Minneapolis and St. Paul increased

    Twin Cities Minnesota Economic and Business Conditions Report - Second Quarter 2017

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    Steady economic growth is expected over the next several months in the Twin Cities according to the prediction of the St. Cloud State University Twin Cities Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). The Twin Cities LEI rose 2.54 points in the second quarter after a strong reading in the previous quarter. Three of five index components increased in the second quarter. Lower initial claims for unemployment insurance in the region had a favorable impact on this quarter’s LEI. Strength in the Minnesota Business Conditions Index--a general measure of statewide business conditions—also had a positive effect on the index. Increased new filings of business incorporation and LLC also helped lift the Twin Cities LEI. There were 10,835 new business filings with the Office of the Minnesota Secretary of State in the seven-county metro area in the second quarter of 2017—representing a 6.4 percent increase from one year ago. There were 1,475 new regional business incorporations in the second quarter, 0.9 percent fewer than year ago levels. Second quarter new LLC filings rose to 6,975 in the seven-county metro area—an 11.6 percent increase compared to the second quarter of 2016. New assumed names were 2.5 percent lower in the second quarter and there were 12 fewer new non-profit filings in the Twin Cities than one year ago. Sixty percent of new business filers in the Twin Cities planning area completed the voluntary Minnesota Business Snapshot (MBS) survey in this year’s second quarter. Results of this voluntary survey indicate that almost 13 percent of new filers come from communities of color. Nearly 5 percent of new filings are veterans. About 2 percent of new filers come from the disability community and more than 8 percent of new filings are made by the immigrant community. Thirty-four percent of new business filings in the Twin Cities planning area in this year’s second quarter were initiated by women. MBS results also show that most new business filers in the Twin Cities have between 0 and 10,000inannualgrossrevenues(although652newfilershaverevenuesinexcessof10,000 in annual gross revenues (although 652 new filers have revenues in excess of 50,000). The most popular industries for new businesses in the Twin Cities are construction, retail trade, real estate/rental/leasing, professional/scientific/technical, arts/entertainment/recreation, and other services. Employment levels at most new firms are between 0 and 5 workers, and 43 percent of those starting a new business consider this a part-time activity. Twin Cities planning area employment increased by 2.7 percent over the year ending June 2017. At 3.5 percent, the planning area’s unemployment rate was lower than one year earlier. Initial claims for unemployment insurance were lower than year ago levels, falling by 7.1 percent to 6,867. Average weekly wages in the Twin Cities were lower than one year ago, although average weekly work hours and average hourly earnings rose for private sector workers in the 16-county Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA over the year ending June 2017. The planning area labor force increased by 2.5 percent over the year ending June 2017. Annual bankruptcies started to rise in the Twin Cities over the past twelve months. The relative cost of living in both Minneapolis and St. Paul increased

    Twin Cities Area Economic and Business Conditions Report Second Quarter 2018

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    Economic growth is expected to continue in the Twin Cities planning area according to the predictions of the Twin Cities Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). The Twin Cities LEI increased 1.13 points in the second quarter of 2018 as two of five index components showed strength. Lower initial jobless claims and an improvement in the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Minnesota Leading Economic Indicators Index each contributed favorably to this quarter’s LEI. A decrease in the Minnesota Business Conditions Index—a general measure of statewide business conditions—and fewer residential building permits in the Twin Cities metropolitan area each had a negative impact on the Twin Cities LEI. There were 11,578 new business filings with the Office of the Minnesota Secretary of State in the seven-county metro area in the second quarter of 2018—representing a 6.9 percent increase from one year ago. 1,421 new regional business incorporations were tallied in the Twin Cities in the second quarter—3.7 percent fewer than year ago levels. Second quarter new LLC filings rose to 7,682 in the seven-county metro area—a 10.1 percent increase compared to the second quarter of 2017. New assumed names were 2.3 percent higher in the second quarter and there were 44 more new non- profit filings in the Twin Cities than one year ago. Sixty percent of new business filers in the Twin Cities planning area completed the voluntary Minnesota Business Snapshot (MBS) survey in this year’s second quarter. Results of this voluntary survey indicate that 15.4 percent of new filers come from communities of color. 5.8 percent of new filings are veterans. Two percent of new filers come from the disability community and 10.4 percent of new filings are made by the immigrant community. Thirty-five percent of new business filings in the Twin Cities planning area in this year’s second quarter were initiated by women. MBS results also show that most new business filers in the Twin Cities have between 0 and 10,000inannualgrossrevenues(although703newfilershaverevenuesinexcessof10,000 in annual gross revenues (although 703 new filers have revenues in excess of 50,000). The most popular industries for new businesses in the Twin Cities are professional/scientific/technical, retail trade, real estate/rental/leasing, construction, and other services. Employment levels at most new firms are between 0 and 5 workers, and 43.2 percent of those starting a new business consider this a part-time activity. Twin Cities planning area employment increased by 2.5 percent over the year ending June 2018. At 2.8 percent, the planning area’s unemployment rate was considerably lower than one year earlier. Initial claims for unemployment insurance were lower than year ago levels, falling by 14 percent to 5,909. Average weekly wages in the region rose by 3.5 percent to $1,224 in the most recent reporting period. The planning area’s labor force expanded by 1.7 percent over the year ending June 2018. Average hourly earnings rose for private sector workers in the 16-county Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA over the year ending June 2018, but average weekly work hours declined. Annual bankruptcies continue to rise in the Twin Cities. The relative cost of living rose in both Minneapolis and St. Paul

    Twin Cities Area Economic and Business Conditions Report - Third Quarter 2017

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    Despite a third quarter decline in the Twin Cities Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), economic growth is expected to remain steady in the Twin Cities over the next several months. The Twin Cities LEI registered a -5.41 reading in the third quarter after a revised 1.47 point decline in the previous quarter. Four of five index components turned down in the third quarter, with recent weakness in the Minnesota Business Conditions Index--a general measure of statewide business conditions—having the largest negative impact on the LEI. Increased new filings of business incorporation and LLC had a positive effect on the leading index. There were 10,214 new business filings with the Office of the Minnesota Secretary of State in the seven-county metro area in the third quarter of 2017—representing an 11.1 percent increase from one year ago. There were 1,363 new regional business incorporations in the third quarter, 4.9 percent more than year ago levels. Third quarter new LLC filings rose to 6,508 in the seven-county metro area—a 16.8 percent increase compared to the third quarter of 2016. New assumed names were 0.7 percent higher in the third quarter and there were 2 more new non-profit filings in the Twin Cities than one year ago. Sixty percent of new business filers in the Twin Cities planning area completed the voluntary Minnesota Business Snapshot (MBS) survey in this year’s third quarter. Results of this voluntary survey indicate that over 14 percent of new filers come from communities of color. About 4.3 percent of new filings are veterans. Less than 2 percent of new filers come from the disability community and 9.4 percent of new filings are made by the immigrant community. Thirty-five percent of new business filings in the Twin Cities planning area in this year’s third quarter were initiated by women. MBS results also show that most new business filers in the Twin Cities have between 0 and 10,000inannualgrossrevenues(although552newfilershaverevenuesinexcessof10,000 in annual gross revenues (although 552 new filers have revenues in excess of 50,000). The most popular industries for new businesses in the Twin Cities are construction, retail trade, real estate/rental/leasing, professional/scientific/technical, and other services. Employment levels at most new firms are between 0 and 5 workers, and 44 percent of those starting a new business consider this a part-time activity. Twin Cities planning area employment increased by 3.5 percent over the year ending September 2017. At 2.9 percent, the planning area’s unemployment rate was lower than one year earlier. Initial claims for unemployment insurance were lower than year ago levels, falling by 13.9 percent to 5,287. The ratio of job vacancies per 100 unemployed jumped to 132.05 in the Twin Cities in the most recent period for which data are available and average weekly work hours and average hourly earnings rose for private sector workers in the 16-county Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA over the year ending September 2017. The planning area labor force increased by 2.8 percent over the year ending September 2017. Annual bankruptcies have started to rise in the Twin Cities. The relative cost of living fell in Minneapolis but increased in St. Paul

    Twin Cities Area Economic and Business Conditions Report Fourth Quarter 2017

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    Despite a fourth quarter decline in the Twin Cities Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), economic growth is expected to remain steady in the Twin Cities over the next several months as overall economic fundamentals remain strong in this part of the state. The Twin Cities LEI registered a -3.07 reading in the fourth quarter. Three of five index components turned down in the fourth quarter, with recent weakness in the Minnesota Business Conditions Index-a general measure of statewide business conditions—and a reduction in the number of residential building permits in the Twin Cities metropolitan area having the largest negative impacts on the LEI. Increased new filings of business incorporation and LLC had a positive effect on the leading index. There were 10,466 new business filings with the Office of the Minnesota Secretary of State in the seven-county metro area in the fourth quarter of 2017—representing a 12.4 percent increase from one year ago. There were 1,426 new regional business incorporations in the fourth quarter, 7 percent more than year ago levels. Fourth quarter new LLC filings rose to 6,696 in the seven-county metro area—a 15.8 percent increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2016. New assumed names were 6.4 percent higher in the fourth quarter and there were 30 more new non-profit filings in the Twin Cities than one year ago. Fifty-nine percent of new business filers in the Twin Cities planning area completed the voluntary Minnesota Business Snapshot (MBS) survey in this year’s fourth quarter. Results of this voluntary survey indicate that over 15 percent of new filers come from communities of color. About 5.1 percent of new filings are veterans. A little more than 2 percent of new filers come from the disability community and 9.4 percent of new filings are made by the immigrant community. Thirty-seven percent of new business filings in the Twin Cities planning area in this year’s fourth quarter were initiated by women. MBS results also show that most new business filers in the Twin Cities have between 0 and 10,000inannualgrossrevenues(although651newfilershaverevenuesinexcessof10,000 in annual gross revenues (although 651 new filers have revenues in excess of 50,000). The most popular industries for new businesses in the Twin Cities are professional/scientific/technical, retail trade, real estate/rental/leasing, construction, and other services. Employment levels at most new firms are between 0 and 5 workers, and 45 percent of those starting a new business consider this a part-time activity. Twin Cities planning area employment increased by 3.8 percent over the year ending December 2017. At 2.7 percent, the planning area’s unemployment rate was considerably lower than one year earlier. Initial claims for unemployment insurance were lower than year ago levels, falling by 9.1 percent to 9,873. Due to a statistical anomaly, the region’s average weekly wages fell in the third quarter of 2017 compared to one year earlier. However, average hourly earnings rose for private sector workers in the 16-county Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA over the year ending December 2017, but average weekly work hours were flat. The planning area labor force increased by 3.1 percent over the year ending December 2017. Annual bankruptcies continue to rise in the Twin Cities. The relative cost of living rose in Minneapolis but fell in St. Paul

    Twin Cities Area Economic and Business Conditions Report First Quarter 2018

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    Strong economic growth is expected to continue in the Twin Cities planning area according to the predictions of the Twin Cities Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). The Twin Cities LEI registered a 4.94 reading in the first quarter of 2018 as four of five index components showed strength. An increase in the Minnesota Business Conditions Index—a general measure of statewide business conditions—and improvement in the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Minnesota Leading Economic Indicators Index each contributed favorably to this quarter’s LEI. In addition, an increase in the number of residential building permits in the Twin Cities metropolitan area and reduced regional initial jobless claims also helped to lift the regional outlook. There were 12,132 new business filings with the Office of the Minnesota Secretary of State in the seven-county metro area in the first quarter of 2018—representing a 6.6 percent increase from one year ago. 1,523 new regional business incorporations were tallied in the Twin Cities in the first quarter—1.5 percent fewer than year ago levels. First quarter new LLC filings rose to 7,943 in the seven-county metro area—a 10.1 percent increase compared to the first quarter of 2017. New assumed names were 0.1 percent lower in the first quarter and there were 51 more new non-profit filings in the Twin Cities than one year ago. Sixty-one percent of new business filers in the Twin Cities planning area completed the voluntary Minnesota Business Snapshot (MBS) survey in this year’s first quarter. Results of this voluntary survey indicate that nearly 15 percent of new filers come from communities of color. About 5 percent of new filings are veterans. A little more than 2 percent of new filers come from the disability community and 8.7 percent of new filings are made by the immigrant community. Thirty-eight percent of new business filings in the Twin Cities planning area in this year’s first quarter were initiated by women. MBS results also show that most new business filers in the Twin Cities have between 0 and 10,000inannualgrossrevenues(although766newfilershaverevenuesinexcessof10,000 in annual gross revenues (although 766 new filers have revenues in excess of 50,000). The most popular industries for new businesses in the Twin Cities are professional/scientific/technical, retail trade, real estate/rental/leasing, construction, and other services. Employment levels at most new firms are between 0 and 5 workers, and 43.5 percent of those starting a new business consider this a part-time activity. Twin Cities planning area employment increased by 3.8 percent over the year ending March 2018. At 3.1 percent, the planning area’s unemployment rate was considerably lower than one year earlier. Initial claims for unemployment insurance were lower than year ago levels, falling by 10.1 percent to 6,622. The job vacancy rate in the Twin Cities has reached an historical high. For every 100 unemployed workers in the Twin Cities, there are 163.54 job vacancies. Average hourly earnings rose for private sector workers in the 16-county Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA over the year ending March 2018, but average weekly work hours declined. The planning area labor force increased by 3.2 percent over the year ending March 2018. Annual bankruptcies continue to rise in the Twin Cities. The relative cost of living fell in both Minneapolis and St. Paul

    Twin Cities Area Economic and Business Conditions Report Third Quarter 2018

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    Steady economic growth is expected to continue in the Twin Cities planning area according to the predictions of the Twin Cities Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). The Twin Cities LEI decreased 1.80 points in the third quarter of 2018 as three of five index components registered negative values. A decrease in the Minnesota Business Conditions Index—a general measure of statewide business conditions—was the primary factor causing the negative reading of this quarter’s LEI. Some weakness in the initial jobless claims and Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Minnesota Leading Economic Indicators Index series also weighed on the Twin Cities LEI. A pickup in residential building permits in the Twin Cities metropolitan area and higher new filings of incorporation and LLC in the region each had a favorable impact on the Twin Cities LEI. There were 10,658 new business filings with the Office of the Minnesota Secretary of State in the seven-county metro area in the third quarter of 2018—representing a 4.3 percent increase from one year ago. 1,303 new regional business incorporations were tallied in the Twin Cities in the third quarter—4.4 percent fewer than year ago levels. Third quarter new LLC filings rose to 7,082 in the seven-county metro area—an 8.8 percent increase compared to the third quarter of 2017. New assumed names were 4.9 percent lower in the third quarter and there were 26 more new non-profit filings in the Twin Cities than one year ago. Sixty percent of new business filers in the Twin Cities planning area completed the voluntary Minnesota Business Snapshot (MBS) survey in this year’s third quarter. Results of this voluntary survey indicate that 16.3 percent of new filers come from communities of color. 4.7 percent of new filings are veterans. 2.1 percent of new filers come from the disability community and 9.8 percent of new filings are made by the immigrant community. Nearly thirty-seven percent of new business filings in the Twin Cities planning area in this year’s third quarter were initiated by women. MBS results also show that most new business filers in the Twin Cities have between 0 and 10,000inannualgrossrevenues(although593newfilershaverevenuesinexcessof10,000 in annual gross revenues (although 593 new filers have revenues in excess of 50,000). The most popular industries for new businesses in the Twin Cities are professional/scientific/technical, retail trade, real estate/rental/leasing, construction, and other services. Employment levels at most new firms are between 0 and 5 workers, and 44.1 percent of those starting a new business consider this a part-time activity. Twin Cities planning area employment increased by 0.5 percent over the year ending September 2018. At 2.2 percent, the planning area’s unemployment rate was considerably lower than one year earlier. Initial claims for unemployment insurance were lower than year ago levels, falling by 7.2 percent to 4,906. The rate of job vacancies per 100 unemployed workers was 186.3 as the regional (and statewide) labor shortage continued to plague Twin Cities firms. The planning area’s labor force contracted by 0.1 percent over the year ending September 2018. Average hourly earnings and average weekly work hours rose for private sector workers in the 16-county Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA over the year ending September 2018 and the relative cost of living rose in Minneapolis, but declined in St. Paul. The number of annual bankruptcies fell in the Twin Cities

    Southwest Minnesota Economic and Business Conditions Report Fourth Quarter 2018

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    The St. Cloud State University Southwest Minnesota Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) continued to bounce around as the fourth quarter LEI registered an 8.26 point loss after recording a strong positive value in the third quarter of the year. This quarter’s negative reading is largely attributed to higher initial jobless claims in the region as well as weaker new filings of incorporation and LLC in the Southwest Minnesota planning area. An increase in the number of residential building permits in the Mankato/North Mankato metropolitan statistical area and an improvement in the Rural Mainstreet Index, a statistic that is used to measure the economic outlook for rural Minnesota, each contributed favorably to the region’s leading index. The SCSU Southwest Minnesota LEI is now 2.7 percent above its level of one year ago. There were 645 new business filings with the Office of the Minnesota Secretary of State in Southwest Minnesota in the fourth quarter of 2018 — representing 4 percent more new filings than one year ago. There were 40 new regional business incorporation filings in the fourth quarter, an 8.1 percent increase from last year’s fourth quarter. New LLC filings in Southwest Minnesota rose 2.8 percent (to a value of 404) from one year earlier and new assumed name filings rose to 159—a 1.3 percent year-over-year increase. There were 42 new filings for Southwest Minnesota non-profit in the fourth quarter—nine more filings than one year ago. Fifty-seven percent of new business filers in the Southwest Minnesota planning area completed the voluntary Minnesota Business Snapshot (MBS) survey in the fourth quarter. Results of this voluntary survey indicate that 4.7 percent of new filers come from communities of color. Approximately 8.2 percent of new business filings are from veterans. About 1.9 percent of new filers come from the disability community and 8.5 percent of new filings were made by the immigrant community. Nearly 40 percent of new business filings in Southwest Minnesota in the fourth quarter were initiated by women. MBS results also show that most new business filers in Southwest Minnesota have between 0 and 10,000inannualgrossrevenues(although46newfilershaverevenuesinexcessof10,000 in annual gross revenues (although 46 new filers have revenues in excess of 50,000). The most popular industries for new businesses in Southwest Minnesota are retail trade, construction, real estate/rental/leasing, agriculture/forestry/fishing/ hunting, professional/scientific/technical and other services. Employment levels at most new firms are between 0 and 5 workers, and 45.7 percent of those starting a new business consider this a part-time activity. Employment of Southwest Minnesota residents increased by 0.2 percent over the year ending December 2018. The regional unemployment rate was 3.4 percent in December, a small decrease from a 3.5 percent reading in December 2017. Initial claims for unemployment insurance were 1.5 percent lower than year-ago levels in December. Average weekly wages in Southwest Minnesota increased by 3.5 percent to $799. The regional labor force rose by 0.2 percent over the year ending December 2018. The number of bankruptcies in the region declined slightly in the most recent period. Economic performance in the Mankato/North Mankato Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)— the largest market in Southwest Minnesota—was mixed in the most recent quarter. Employment rose, average hourly earnings increased, the labor force expanded, initial jobless claims were lower, and the value of Mankato area residential building permits increased. However, new business filings were lower, the relative cost of living rose, average weekly work hours fell, and the area’s unemployment rate was unchanged
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