Weak Form Efficiency of the Insurance Industry: Empirical Evidence From Nigeria

This paper evaluates the insurance sector of Nigeria Stock Exchange (NSE) for evidence weak-form efficiency using daily returns from January 2009 to February 2016. The study employs descriptive analysis, non-parametric runs test and autocorrelation function as well as Ljung-Box Q statistics in conducting the evaluation. Descriptive statistics of the insurance sector return series show negative skewness and leptokurtic distribution. Estimates from the Jarque-Bera normality test show that the insurance sector returns do not follow normal distribution. Results of the runs test reject null hypothesis of randomness in the return series of the insurance sector in the period studied. Furthermore, the autocorrelation functions and the Ljung-Box Q tests provide evidence of serial correlation in the stock returns of the insurance sector. Overall results from the study suggest that the insurance sector of NSE is not weak-form efficient. Consequently, technical analysis on the insurance sector of the NSE may not be fruitless

Efficient market hypothesis: is the Croatian stock market as (in)efficient as the U.S. market

Traditional statistical tests of serial independence of stock price changes often show that stock markets are inefficient. Our analysis on daily and monthly data confirms this finding for the Croatian and U.S. markets in the 2002-2010 period. However, this result seems to be mainly due to the impact of the crisis of 2008-2009. The observation of monthly data in the pre-crisis period suggests market efficiency in the U.S. and (rather surprisingly) in Croatia also. Daily data indicate a high degree of efficiency of the US stock market before the crisis, but it is impossible to conclude with a satisfying level of confidence that the Croatian market was inefficient in that period. Furthermore, an elementary moving average crossover trading system beats the CROBEX and S&P 500 indices from 1997 to 2010, indicating market inefficiency. Still, if the same trading rule is applied to the S&P 500 index in an extended time period between 1950 and 2010, the conclusion about market inefficiency becomes less convincing. It seems that (in)efficiency varies both across markets and in the same markets in the long run, but it still remains unknown which processes are the driving factors behind these changes.efficient market hypothesis, capital markets, CROBEX, S&P 500

Bank Capital and Lending Behaviour: Empirical Evidence for Italy

This paper investigates the existence of cross-sectional differences in the response of lending to monetary policy and GDP shocks owing to a different degree of bank capitalization. The effects on lending of shocks to bank capital that are caused by a specific (higher than 8 per cent) solvency ratio for highly risky banks are also analyzed. The paper adds to the existing literature in three ways. First, it considers a measure of capitalization (the excess capital) that is better able to control for the riskiness of banksÂ’ portfolios than the well-known capital-to-asset ratio. Second, it disentangles the effects of the "bank lending channel" from those of the "bank capital channel" in the case of a monetary shock; it also provides an explanation for asymmetric effects of GDP shocks on lending based on the link between bank capital and risk aversion. Third, it uses a unique dataset of quarterly data for Italian banks over the period 1992-2001; the full coverage of banks and the long sample period helps to overcome some distributional bias detected for other available public datasets. The results indicate that well-capitalized banks can better shield their lending from monetary policy shocks as they have easier access to non-deposit fund-raising consistently with the "bank lending channel" hypothesis. A "bank capital channel" is also detected, with stronger effects for cooperative banks that have a larger maturity mismatch. Capitalization also influences the way banks react to GDP shocks. Again, the credit supply of well-capitalized banks is less pro-cyclical. The introduction of a specific solvency ratio for highly risky banks determines an overall reduction in lending.Basel standards; monetary transmission mechanisms; bank lending; bank capital

A typology of foreign exchange auction markets in sub-Saharan Africa : dynamic models for auction exchange rates

In this analytical sequel to"A Typology of Foreign Exchange Auction Markets in sub-Saharan Africa", the authors compare the micromanagement of different foreign exchange auctions in sub-Saharan Africa. Multi-unit auctions for foreign exchange were introduced in a number of countries in the 1980s and 1990s, in a transitional step toward a credible, sustainable, unified regime, such as efficient interbank market. But there is little understanding of how auction markets function in sub-Saharan Africa, and there has been virtually no research on the causes of frequent policy reversals or of auction failure. One possible cause of failure -- apart from thin markets, macroeconomic laxity, and vulnerability to terms-of-trade shocks and fluctuations in the disbursement of foreign aid -- is the inappropriate design and management of auctions. The authors estimate models for the microdeterminants of the auction rate, using weekly data on foreign exchange auctions for Ghana, Nigeria, Uganda, and Zambia. Among the policy lessons: 1) Nigeria and Zambia failed to unify and stabilize the exchange rate partly because there was no reserve price rule. When bidders learn such a rule, speculative bidding diminishes. 2) The management of a credible, sustainable reserve price policy requires an efficient secondary market. A simple underlying model, synthesized from the theoretical literature on auctions, specifies the auction rate as a function of fundamental variables and structural shift dummies. The repeated, sequential nature of these multi-unit auctions and the nonstationary nature of most of the auction variables are captured empirically by a cointegrated (error connection) framework. In addition to consistently estimating long-run and short-run parameters of auction fundamentals, the error correction model allows asymptotically efficient testing of three policy hypotheses deriving from auction theory: the competitiveness hypothesis, the effect of uncertainty on the auction-determined rate, and the revenue-equivalence hypothesis. In other words, they used these models to test the impact on the level of the auction rate of increased comptetition among bidders, of the effect of uncertainty (proxied by a volatile supply of foreign exchange), and of different pricing mechanisms.International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Economic Theory&Research,Markets and Market Access,Access to Markets,Environmental Economics&Policies

Volatility Forecasting

Volatility has been one of the most active and successful areas of research in time series econometrics and economic forecasting in recent decades. This chapter provides a selective survey of the most important theoretical developments and empirical insights to emerge from this burgeoning literature, with a distinct focus on forecasting applications. Volatility is inherently latent, and Section 1 begins with a brief intuitive account of various key volatility concepts. Section 2 then discusses a series of different economic situations in which volatility plays a crucial role, ranging from the use of volatility forecasts in portfolio allocation to density forecasting in risk management. Sections 3, 4 and 5 present a variety of alternative procedures for univariate volatility modeling and forecasting based on the GARCH, stochastic volatility and realized volatility paradigms, respectively. Section 6 extends the discussion to the multivariate problem of forecasting conditional covariances and correlations, and Section 7 discusses volatility forecast evaluation methods in both univariate and multivariate cases. Section 8 concludes briefly.

Volatility Forecasting

Volatility has been one of the most active and successful areas of research in time series econometrics and economic forecasting in recent decades. This chapter provides a selective survey of the most important theoretical developments and empirical insights to emerge from this burgeoning literature, with a distinct focus on forecasting applications. Volatility is inherently latent, and Section 1 begins with a brief intuitive account of various key volatility concepts. Section 2 then discusses a series of different economic situations in which volatility plays a crucial role, ranging from the use of volatility forecasts in portfolio allocation to density forecasting in risk management. Sections 3,4 and 5 present a variety of alternative procedures for univariate volatility modeling and forecasting based on the GARCH, stochastic volatility and realized volatility paradigms, respectively. Section 6 extends the discussion to the multivariate problem of forecasting conditional covariances and correlations, and Section 7 discusses volatility forecast evaluation methods in both univariate and multivariate cases. Section 8 concludes briefly.

Volatility Forecasting

Volatility has been one of the most active and successful areas of research in time series econometrics and economic forecasting in recent decades. This chapter provides a selective survey of the most important theoretical developments and empirical insights to emerge from this burgeoning literature, with a distinct focus on forecasting applications. Volatility is inherently latent, and Section 1 begins with a brief intuitive account of various key volatility concepts. Section 2 then discusses a series of different economic situations in which volatility plays a crucial role, ranging from the use of volatility forecasts in portfolio allocation to density forecasting in risk management. Sections 3, 4 and 5 present a variety of alternative procedures for univariate volatility modeling and forecasting based on the GARCH, stochastic volatility and realized volatility paradigms, respectively. Section 6 extends the discussion to the multivariate problem of forecasting conditional covariances and correlations, and Section 7 discusses volatility forecast evaluation methods in both univariate and multivariate cases. Section 8 concludes briefly.

Over- and underbidding in central bank open market operations conducted as fixed rate tender

Open market operations play a key role in allocating central bank funds to the banking system and thereby to steer short-term interest rates in line with the stance of monetary policy. Many central banks apply so-called “fixed rate tender” auctions in their open market operations. This note presents, on the basis of a survey of central bank experience, a model of bidding in such tenders. In their conduct of fixed rate tenders, many central banks faced specifically an “under”- and an “overbidding” problem. These phenomena are revisited in the light of the proposed model and the more general question of the optimal tender procedure and allotment policy of central banks is addressed. --open market operations,tender procedures,central bank liquidity management

Volatility forecasting

Volatility has been one of the most active and successful areas of research in time series econometrics and economic forecasting in recent decades. This chapter provides a selective survey of the most important theoretical developments and empirical insights to emerge from this burgeoning literature, with a distinct focus on forecasting applications. Volatility is inherently latent, and Section 1 begins with a brief intuitive account of various key volatility concepts. Section 2 then discusses a series of different economic situations in which volatility plays a crucial role, ranging from the use of volatility forecasts in portfolio allocation to density forecasting in risk management. Sections 3, 4 and 5 present a variety of alternative procedures for univariate volatility modeling and forecasting based on the GARCH, stochastic volatility and realized volatility paradigms, respectively. Section 6 extends the discussion to the multivariate problem of forecasting conditional covariances and correlations, and Section 7 discusses volatility forecast evaluation methods in both univariate and multivariate cases. Section 8 concludes briefly. JEL Klassifikation: C10, C53, G1

Essays on Turkish Equity Market

on the Turkish Equity Market is a critical examination of dynamic properties of the price formation in the Turkish equity market. Chapter 1 examines the evidence of a weak-form efficiency of the Turkish equity market (TEM). A wide range of equity indexes and statistical tests, such as autocorrelation, stationarity, unit root, and variance ratio tests and estimation of the GARCH-In-Mean model, are employed to examine the random walk and martingale hypothesis in TEM. The results are effectively uniform and provide little supporting evidence regarding TEM's weak-form market efficiency hypothesis. Chapter 2 makes a significant contribution to understanding the time-varying efficiency of TEM. We examine the validity and persistence of the size effect in the cross-section of Turkish equity returns while correcting for the effects of noisy prices using the buy-and-hold method implemented in the literature. The size effect for the overall sample period of 18 years is consistent with the estimates for developed markets but, as expected, becomes statistically insignificant when the biases in computed returns are alleviated by calculating the buy-and-hold and risk-adjusted returns. Chapter 3 is a novel attempt to re-examine the time-varying efficiency of TEM, particularly using a natural experiment recently presented when Turkey faced the potential downgrade by MSCI from the emerging to the frontier market status in 2020. Turkey is similar to other emerging markets going through reversals in the degree of integration with the rest of the world. The decrease in the Turkey market betas from the historical highs is unlikely to signal a decrease in exposure to systematic risk and is more likely to be related to a prolonged decline in the market sentiment and a significant decrease in the degree of TEM integration. We also illustrate the likely effect of institutional investment flow on market betas of listed equities