Early identification of important patents through network centrality

One of the most challenging problems in technological forecasting is to identify as early as possible those technologies that have the potential to lead to radical changes in our society. In this paper, we use the US patent citation network (1926-2010) to test our ability to early identify a list of historically significant patents through citation network analysis. We show that in order to effectively uncover these patents shortly after they are issued, we need to go beyond raw citation counts and take into account both the citation network topology and temporal information. In particular, an age-normalized measure of patent centrality, called rescaled PageRank, allows us to identify the significant patents earlier than citation count and PageRank score. In addition, we find that while high-impact patents tend to rely on other high-impact patents in a similar way as scientific papers, the patents' citation dynamics is significantly slower than that of papers, which makes the early identification of significant patents more challenging than that of significant papers.Comment: 14 page

Inferring offline hierarchical ties from online social networks

Social networks can represent many different types of relationships between actors, some explicit and some implicit. For example, email communications between users may be represented explicitly in a network, while managerial relationships may not. In this paper we focus on analyzing explicit interactions among actors in order to detect hierarchical social relationships that may be implicit. We start by employing three well-known ranking-based methods, PageRank, Degree Centrality, and Rooted-PageRank (RPR) to infer such implicit relationships from interactions between actors. Then we propose two novel approaches which take into account the time-dimension of interactions in the process of detecting hierarchical ties. We experiment on two datasets, the Enron email dataset to infer manager-subordinate relationships from email exchanges, and a scientific publication co-authorship dataset to detect PhD advisor-advisee relationships from paper co-authorships. Our experiments show that time-based methods perform considerably better than ranking-based methods. In the Enron dataset, they detect 48% of manager-subordinate ties versus 32% found by Rooted-PageRank. Similarly, in co-author dataset, they detect 62% of advisor-advisee ties compared to only 39% by Rooted-PageRank

When is a Network a Network? Multi-Order Graphical Model Selection in Pathways and Temporal Networks

We introduce a framework for the modeling of sequential data capturing pathways of varying lengths observed in a network. Such data are important, e.g., when studying click streams in information networks, travel patterns in transportation systems, information cascades in social networks, biological pathways or time-stamped social interactions. While it is common to apply graph analytics and network analysis to such data, recent works have shown that temporal correlations can invalidate the results of such methods. This raises a fundamental question: when is a network abstraction of sequential data justified? Addressing this open question, we propose a framework which combines Markov chains of multiple, higher orders into a multi-layer graphical model that captures temporal correlations in pathways at multiple length scales simultaneously. We develop a model selection technique to infer the optimal number of layers of such a model and show that it outperforms previously used Markov order detection techniques. An application to eight real-world data sets on pathways and temporal networks shows that it allows to infer graphical models which capture both topological and temporal characteristics of such data. Our work highlights fallacies of network abstractions and provides a principled answer to the open question when they are justified. Generalizing network representations to multi-order graphical models, it opens perspectives for new data mining and knowledge discovery algorithms.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, 1 table, companion python package pathpy available on gitHu