Volatility persistence and time-varying betas in the UK real estate market

This paper investigates the degree of return volatility persistence and the time-varying behaviour of systematic risk (beta) for 31 market segments in the UK real estate market. The findings suggest that different property types exhibit differences in volatility persistence and time variability. There is also evidence that the volatility persistence of each market segment and its systematic risk are significantly positively related. Thus, the systematic risks of different property types tend to move in different directions during periods of increased market volatility. Finally, the market segments with systematic risks less than one tend to show negative time variability, while market segments with systematic risk greater than one generally show positive time variability, indicating a positive relationship between the volatility of the market and the systematic risk of individual market segments. Consequently safer and riskier market segments are affected differently by increases in market volatility

Investor Expectations and Systematic Risk

This study refines the estimation of beta risk within the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) framework. Evidence is provided that the link between ex-ante risk and ex-post returns is strengthened by more accurately reflecting the formation of investor expectations. An adaptive expectations approach is employed as an estimation technique consistent with the behavioural patterns of investors. Finally, the study compares the capability of risk estimates from both the standard CAPM and adaptive expectation methods to account for future asset returns in Australia.Asset Pricing; Adaptive Expectations; Australia.

REIT and REOC Systematic Risk Sensitivity

Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and Real Estate Operating Companies (REOCs) seem to have different systematic risk levels even though both invest almost exclusively in real estate related assets. We find business risk to be negatively related to systematic risk, as measured by beta, for REITs, while REOCs? betas are positively related to agency costs. The two groups? betas also show differing sensitivity to real estate property type and regional location. REITs? systematic risk is also sensitive to financial leverage and financing form.

Asian Sovereign Debt and Country Risk

This paper analyzes systematic risk of sovereign bonds in four East Asian countries: China, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. A bivariate stochastic volatility model that allows for time-varying correlation is estimated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. The volatilities and correlation are then used to calculate the time-varying betas. The results show that country-specific systematic risk in Asian sovereign bonds varies over time. When adjusting for inherent exchange rate risk, the pattern of systematic risk is similar, even though the level is generally lower. The findings have important implications for international portfolio managers that invest in emerging sovereign bonds and those who need benchmark instruments to analyze risk in assets such as corporate bonds in the emerging Asian financial markets.Asia; sovereign bonds; systematic risk; stochastic volatility; Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Testing the Modigliani-Miller theorem directly in the lab

We present an experiment designed to test the Modigliani-Miller theorem. Applying a general equilibrium approach and not allowing for arbitrage among firms with different capital structures, we find that, in accordance with the theorem, participants well recognize changes in the systematic risk of equity associated with increasing leverage and, accordingly, demand higher rate of return. Yet, this adjustment is not perfect: subjects underestimate the systematic risk of low-leveraged equity whereas they overestimate the systematic risk of high-leveraged equity, resulting in a U-shaped cost of capital. A (control) individual decision-making experiment, eliciting several points on individual demand and supply curves for shares, provides some support for the theoreModigliani-Miller theorem, Experiments, Decision making under risk, General equilibrium

Performance Analysis of a Collateralized Fund Obligation (CFO) Equity Tranche

This article examines the performance of the junior tranche of a Collateralized Fund Obligation (CFO), i.e. the residual claim (equity) on a securitized portfolio of hedge funds. We use a polynomial goal programming model to create optimal portfolios of hedge funds, conditional to investor preferences and diversification constraints (maximum allocation per strategy). For each portfolio we build CFO structures that have different levels of leverage, and analyze both the stand alone performance as well as potential diversification benefits (low systematic risk exposures) of investing in the Equity Tranche of these structures. We find that the unconstrained mean-variance portfolio yields a high performance, but greater exposure to systematic risk. We observe the exact opposite picture in the case of unconstrained optimization where a skewness bias is added, thus proving the existence of a trade-off between stand alone performance and low exposure to systematic risk factors. We provide evidence that leveraged exposure to these hedge fund portfolios through the structuring of CFOs creates value for the Equity Tranche investor.Collateralized Fund Obligation (CFO), hedge funds, structured finance, portfolio optimization, performance analysis, multivariate linear regression, systematic risk

Risk Sharing and Asset Prices: Evidence From a Natural Experiment

When countries liberalize their stock markets, firms that become eligible for purchase by foreigners (investible), experience an average stock price revaluation of 10.4 percent. Since the covariance of the median investible firm's stock return with the local market is 30 times larger than its covariance with the world market, liberalization reduces the systematic risk associated with holding investible securities. Consistent with this fact: 1) the average effect of the reduction in systematic risk is 3.4 percentage points, or roughly one third of the total effect; and 2) variation in the firm-specific response is directly proportional to the firm-specific change in systematic risk. The statistical significance of this proportionality persists after controlling for changes in expected future profits and index inclusion criteria such as size and liquidity.

Systematic risk and the performance of mutual funds pursuing momentum and contrarian trades

We examine mutual fund trading activity to determine whether they rebalance their portfolios towards stocks that were recent superior performers (a momentum strategy) or towards stocks that recently underperformed (a contrarian strategy). Using 2,829 funds with 49,661 fund-periods between 1991 and 2005, we find that around 15% of the funds exhibit contrarian trading behavior with a similar percentage following a momentum strategy. We highlight the importance of a stock’s risk to traders adopting momentum and contrarian strategies. Mutual funds that follow a momentum strategy and acquire high-risk stocks improve their performance, while those following a contrarian strategy in these stocks diminish their performance. Both contrarian and momentum trading behavior by funds persists