Turkey's global strategy: introduction: the sources of Turkish grand strategy - ‘strategic depth’ and ‘zero-problems’ in context

The dramatic changes in Turkish foreign policy and strategy in its regional and international relations in the fi rst decade of the new century stands in sharp contrast with that of its immediate past. After the end of the Cold War, Turkey was a prickly power in a tough neighbourhood, one that included two major zones of instability, the Balkans and the Middle East. On three separate occasions, Turkey came to the brink of war with its neighbours: Armenia in 1992, Greece in 1996 and Syria in 1998. Regular military incursions were launched into Northern Iraq; in the Aegean, continuous tactical military provocations between the Greek and Turkish air force took place. Little movement was evident with regard to Cyprus and at one point Turkey even threatened to annex the northern part of the island. Relations with post-Cold War Russia were tentative and burdened by a long history of tension and conflict. Relations with Iran were soured by the Kurdish conflict and political Islam. Turkey’s overall approach to its neighbours was characterised by confrontation, mistrust, and the use of threats and force. Yet, despite tensions over domestic issues such as human rights, widespread use of torture, and the situation of the Kurdish minority, Turkey remained a strong transatlantic partner

The conflict in Iraq has highlighted the benefits for Turkey in accepting a stable Kurdistan

EU foreign ministers held a meeting on 15 August over the issue of providing military support to Kurdish forces operating in Iraq. Marianna Charountaki writes on the role of Turkey in the conflict, which not only shares a border with Iraq and Syria, but also has a large Kurdish population. She notes that relations between Turkey and the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq have improved over recent years and that the current conflict underlines the potential benefits for Turkey in accepting a stable Kurdistan

FEUTURE EU 28 Country Report. Estonia

Relations between Estonia and Turkey received renewed impetus after 2004, when Estonia joined the European Union (EU) (while Turkey was in the process of securing the official candidate status) and NATO, of which Turkey has been a member since 1952. Since its accession, Estonia has played a generally constructive role at the EU level when it comes to both its institutional future and enlargement policy. Its key tenets, thereby, seem in line with the principled open-door approach advocated by the fellow Nordic countries

Turkey's global strategy: Turkey and the United States

The recent evolution of US-Turkish relations highlights broader challenges of the transition from American unipolarity to a still inceptive ‘multipolar world’. The relationship cannot be understood unless its evolution during the 20th century is contrasted with the recent reality of the fluid interaction between a self-described ‘emerging power’ (Erdogan, 2011) with regional aspirations and a global superpower with extended interests in Turkey’s many neighbourhoods (including the Balkans, the Caucasus, and the Middle East) but a declining international influence

The Endgame: America’s Exit from Syria

Ever since the 2011 Arab Spring protests in Syria fueled civil war costing nearly half a million lives to date, the US response has been cautious indecision. Syria became a proxy war with Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, the Turks, ISIS, the Kurds, and the local Syrian opposition all competing to support or oust Assad. All but the Kurds and select Syrian resistance groups opposed America. With billions spent on questionable war efforts in Afghanistan and Iraq, President Obama, the American public, and most of the military establishment were leery of direct US involvement in Syria. Apart from supporting the fight against ISIS and half-hearted demands that Bashar al Assad step aside as leader of Syria, neither President Obama nor President Trump have committed US troops to achieving anything more comprehensive. Optimally, the US should encourage multilateral efforts to negotiate Assad’s removal from office with Russia, address Turkish fears of Kurdish independence, or pressure Iran and Hezbollah to withdraw from Syria. Under present circumstances facing US policymakers, such optimizing is illusory. Whatever the limits and possibilities of USFP in the region today, it is clear that America needs a tactical retreat to reconsolidate its power and purpose to fight its Russian and Iranian foes another day when the direct stakes for American interests are higher

Trump, the Middle East, and North Africa: Just Leave Things to the Proxies? Egmont Security Policy Brief No. 125 March 2020

When Trump says that he wants NATO to take more responsibility in the Middle East, what he means is that he wants the European allies to do more. He is campaigning for reelection and has promised to bring the boys (and girls) home for Christmas. And of course, in Iraq American troops are less than welcome these days, after the targeted assassination of Iranian General Soleimani near Baghdad airport (3 January 2020). In late 2019, Trump had already withdrawn most troops from Syria, and now the peace agreement with the Taliban (29 February 2020) will allow him to draw down the US military presence in Afghanistan too. And the US is considering pulling its troops out of the Sahel as well. What does this mean for Europe

Iranian foreign policy under Rouhani

In this Lowy Institute Analysis Rodger Shanahan examines changes in Iranian foreign policy under President Rouhani. He argues that while the Iranian President has changed the tone of Iranian foreign policy, changing the substance will prove much more difficult.  Key findings Rouhani is a centrist rather than a reformist and sees the economy as the key to maximising Iranian national power. The nuclear negotiations are central to ending Iran’s international isolation and reaching a modus vivendi with the United States. But a nuclear deal will not end suspicion of Iran among its neighbours in the region and may even increase it

Turkey's global strategy: Turkey and Iraq

Interaction between Turkey and Iraq is rapidly increasing, with economic and strategic interests driving political cooperation, yet there are still longer-term challenges remain to be solved, particularly in relation to energy and water security. Iraq is one of Turkey’s most important trading partners and is becoming an essential source of energy. It attaches great deal of importance to Iraq’s stability and territorial integrity and sees those matters as crucial to its own security and stability. Turkey has become more active in Iraqi affairs, including burgeoning trade and investment relations, close communication with infl uential political actors and pro-active engagement with Iraqi Kurds. The elimination of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is a major security objective on the agenda of Turkish-Iraqi bilateral relations. Moreover, the future status of Kirkuk, an ethnically mixed city of Kurds, Arabs, and Turcomans, among them Muslims and Christians and home to some of the Iraq’s largest oil reserves, is another cause for concern for Turkey. Turkey’s principal anxiety is that the oil riches of Kirkuk will only encourage the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to seek greater autonomy, which may spill over into its own borders and spark unrest among Turkey’s own Kurdish population. Essentially, energy, economy and reconstruction form the crux of the Turkish involvement in Iraq