Lake Mead Science Symposium, January 13 an 14, 2009, Las Vegas, Nevada: Program

Conference program for the 2009 Lake Mead Science Symposium. Includes abstracts of presentations, registration packet, exhibitor and sponsor information

From Social Data Mining to Forecasting Socio-Economic Crisis

Socio-economic data mining has a great potential in terms of gaining a better understanding of problems that our economy and society are facing, such as financial instability, shortages of resources, or conflicts. Without large-scale data mining, progress in these areas seems hard or impossible. Therefore, a suitable, distributed data mining infrastructure and research centers should be built in Europe. It also appears appropriate to build a network of Crisis Observatories. They can be imagined as laboratories devoted to the gathering and processing of enormous volumes of data on both natural systems such as the Earth and its ecosystem, as well as on human techno-socio-economic systems, so as to gain early warnings of impending events. Reality mining provides the chance to adapt more quickly and more accurately to changing situations. Further opportunities arise by individually customized services, which however should be provided in a privacy-respecting way. This requires the development of novel ICT (such as a self- organizing Web), but most likely new legal regulations and suitable institutions as well. As long as such regulations are lacking on a world-wide scale, it is in the public interest that scientists explore what can be done with the huge data available. Big data do have the potential to change or even threaten democratic societies. The same applies to sudden and large-scale failures of ICT systems. Therefore, dealing with data must be done with a large degree of responsibility and care. Self-interests of individuals, companies or institutions have limits, where the public interest is affected, and public interest is not a sufficient justification to violate human rights of individuals. Privacy is a high good, as confidentiality is, and damaging it would have serious side effects for society.Comment: 65 pages, 1 figure, Visioneer White Paper, see http://www.visioneer.ethz.c

Big data for monitoring educational systems

This report considers “how advances in big data are likely to transform the context and methodology of monitoring educational systems within a long-term perspective (10-30 years) and impact the evidence based policy development in the sector”, big data are “large amounts of different types of data produced with high velocity from a high number of various types of sources.” Five independent experts were commissioned by Ecorys, responding to themes of: students' privacy, educational equity and efficiency, student tracking, assessment and skills. The experts were asked to consider the “macro perspective on governance on educational systems at all levels from primary, secondary education and tertiary – the latter covering all aspects of tertiary from further, to higher, and to VET”, prioritising primary and secondary levels of education

How to design for persistence and retention in MOOCs?

Design of educational interventions is typically carried out following a design cycle involving phases of investigation, conceptualization, prototyping, implementation, execution and evaluation. This cycle can be applied at different levels of granularity e.g. learning activity, module, course or programme. In this paper we consider an aspect of learner behavior that can be critical to the success of many MOOCs i.e. their persistence to study, and the related theme of learner retention. We reflect on the impact that consideration of these can have on design decisions at different stages in the design cycle with the aim of en-hancing MOOC design in relation to learner persistence and retention, with particular attention to the European context

Gender Inequality in Health and Work: The Case of Latin America and the Caribbean

This technical paper reviews existing empirical evidence to track the effects of women's paid work on their own and their children's health in Latin America and the Caribbean. It begins with a brief description of the changing nature of labor markets and women's labor force participation. It then explores women's occupational health risks and mentions some initiatives that seek to respond to these risks. The next part of the report looks at the existing evidence for the positive effects of paid work on women's health and child health. The paper ends with policy recommendations.Women, Diseases, Health Policy, Workforce & Employment, occupational health and safety, women in the work force, women employees

11th International Conference on Predictive Modelling in Food: book of abstracts

It is our great pleasure to welcome you in Bragança, Portugal, for the 11th International Conference of Predictive Modelling in Food (ICPMF11). Since 1992, ten ICPMF editions have taken place, providing a forum for the exchange of ideas, identification of research needs and novel approaches for the advancement of predictive modelling towards ensuring safety and quality of foods. Bragança is a typically-Portuguese old town (Romanic origin dates back to the 10th century), located by the Natural Park of Montesinho – one of the wildest forest zones of Europe – and the Douro Valley – the third oldest protected wine region in the world; and surrounded by traditional villages of a distinctive rustic beauty. Bragança houses several traditional industries producing a myriad of local foods, such as cheese, fermented meats, wine, chestnuts and honey, which provide substantial economic sustainability to the region. ICPMF11 reunites food researchers, stakeholders, risk assessors and users of predictive models to present recent developments and trends in modelling approaches for food quality, safety and sustainability. We succeeded to gather a significant number of delegates from over the world to participate in a comprehensive scientific programme that includes keynote lectures, oral communications and posters, allocated in sessions focusing on: . Advances in predictive microbiology modelling . Predictive modelling in innovative food processing and preservation technologies . Advances in microbial dynamics and interactions . Advances in software and database tools . Meta-analysis protocols and applications . Advances in risk assessment methods and integration of omics techniques . Advances in predictive modelling in food quality and safety . Predictive mycology . Individual cell and whole-cell modelling Apart from those, ICPMF11 features for the first time a special session dedicated to “Innovative approaches for ensuring safety of traditional foods” and the Round Table: “Assuring the Safety of Traditional Foods: A Scientific Contribution to Protecting our Cultural Heritage”. We, as food researchers based in a Mediterranean mountain region, are aware that the production of traditional foods plays a key role in the development of rural regions, since the agricultural commodities used as raw materials are generally produced locally, allowing and stimulating local commercialisation, thus contributing to a sustainable environment, and employment in rural populations. It was inspiring for us to have received many submissions from both developed and developing countries on the valorisation of traditional foods through the application of up-to-date modelling research. Besides that, one morning workshop and three afternoon tutorials were programmed during the day before the scientific programme. The workshop “How to benefit from the Risk Assessment Modelling and Knowledge Integration Platform (RAKIP)” was organised by Matthias Filter. The parallel tutorials “Towards an integrated predictive software map: Practical examples of use of predictive microbiology software tools for food safety and quality”; “Advanced methods in predictive microbiology” and “Topics in quantitative microbial risk assessment using R” were organised by Fernando Pérez-Rodríguez, Pablo Fernández, Alberto Garre and Mariem Ellouze; by Lihan Huang, Cheng-An Hwang and Vasco Cadavez; and by Patrick Njage and Ana Sofia Ribeiro Duarte, respectively. We thank these organisers for their proposals. Abstracts, reviewed by the ICPMF11 Scientific Committee, are published in the present Book of Abstracts while peer-reviewed original research articles will be invited to be published in ICPMF11 Special Issues in the International Journal of Food Microbiology and Microbial Risk Analysis. To stimulate the participation of postgraduate students and young researchers, two kinds of awards were arranged: the Young Researcher Best Oral Presentation prizes, sponsored by Elsevier; and the Developing Scientist Best Poster prizes, sponsored by the International Committee on Food Microbiology and Hygiene (ICFMH) of the International Union of Microbiological Societies (IUMS). For the first time, this ICPMF edition gives out two awards for the Senior Researcher Best Oral Presentation, sponsored by the open-access journal Foods – MDPI. In addition to the scientific programme, we prepared an exciting social programme for delegates to appreciate the rich culture, gastronomy and traditions of Bragança, w includes welcome reception, live music, tasting of regional food and a gala dinner in the Castle of Bragança. We look forward to lively discussions, and hope that this meeting will give you the opportunity to strengthen friendship and cooperation, and build new contacts for future research endeavours.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Implementing a Health Maintenance Organisation in West Africa

The purpose of this report is to determine whether health maintenance organisations (HMOs) can provide a suitable and viable form of financial health protection and service provision in selected West African countries, supplementary to existing healthcare provision and coverage. Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia and Sierra Leone were chosen as country examples. Chapter 1 provides the context for the health and healthcare situation in West Africa as well as specific country profiles, whilst Chapter 2 describes factors to be considered when establishing an HMO. The range of technical di-mensions of an HMO introduced in this report includes: administration, human resources, financing, accreditation, service availability and readiness, the benefits catalogue, paying providers, drugs and quality management. Each of these dimensions is further discussed in Chapters 3 – 10. The administration of an HMO consists of nine interconnected fields: management dash-board, quality management, IT department, purchasing and coordination, finance and ac-counting, health plan and benefit package, member management, human resources, and marketing. In Chapter 3, the authors give a more in-depth analysis of the fields of marketing and member management. Recommendations provided in this chapter include the use of different marketing approaches to bridge the gap between communities and the HMO by establishing informative advertising (e.g., via a mobile responsive website, social media, posters, flyers, radio, and recorded information). Chapter 4 focuses on an HMO’s human resources, particularly in regard to staff recruiting, development and retention. Staff development expands staff competence by increasing employees’ motivation and job satisfaction, which leads to an increase in their performance and productivity, thereby improving staff retention. Furthermore, staff retention is important for ensuring a long-term commitment to the HMO. In conclusion, the success of an HMO is crucially dependent on motivating staff and enabling them to exercise, develop and share their skills. Chapter 5 covers the financial aspects of an HMO, including dimensions related to its target population, financial barriers, funding resources, management of funds, and specific coun-try challenges. In order to calculate the necessary resources, this chapter make clear that an HMO must consider cost projections for the benefit package, infrastructure development, administration, expansion and a reserve. To establish an accreditation system, HMOs can interact with stakeholders from different fields and levels of service delivery and administration, as examined in Chapter 6. The polit-ical and social conditions of a country must be considered by the HMO in order to effective-ly implement an accreditation system. Besides this, an HMO can seek to improve the per-formance quality of healthcare by supporting the establishment of an accreditation scheme. Reliable information on service availability and readiness is necessary for successful health systems management as it allows health services to be tracked in terms of how they have responded to changed inputs and processes. In Chapter 7, the authors analyse the Service Availability and Readiness Assessment (SARA) tool, and recommend its application within the HMO, as it offers a standardised approach to monitoring the supply of services by providing a standard set of tracer indicators. To implement a health benefit package (HBP), the authors assess existing models, such as the one introduced by Glassman et al. (2017) which specifies ten core elements of an HBP design and helps to enable discussions on the most relevant aspects in designing an HBP for an HMO. Chapter 8 presents a coinsurance scheme within the HBP design which will affect the service utilisation of members as well as utilisation management as one method for cost control. In addition, actuarial calculations are proposed using Sierra Leone as a case example. Chapter 9 describes the pharmaceutical supply chain required by an HMO. Important steps of the HMO’s medicine supply chain include: selection, quantification and forecasting, pro-curement, storage, and distribution of medical products. Medicines provided by the HMO must be safe, available, accessible, and affordable at all times and for all members. Stock-outs must be avoided, and therefore this chapter recommends employing community-based health workers in order to ensure distribution to patients in rural areas. Quality management is an important field in an HMO analysed in Chapter 10 of this report. It includes patient safety, efficiency, and patient satisfaction; all factors that must be con-sidered during the implementation of an HMO. The chapter concludes by noting that quality is highly subjective and must therefore be applied to the specific context of an HMO within a specific country. Finally, Chapters 11 and 12 of the report include implementation challenges of an HMO in West Africa, as well next steps that should be followed. Although similar challenges con-cerning the social, political, or structural environment can be found in most West African countries, direct transfer of elaborated information to other countries and healthcare situa-tions is not always possible. As well as these situational challenges, HMOs encounter dif-ferent questions such as how to balance the scope of available services against the cover-age of diverse geographical areas, engagement of various stakeholders and reflection of respective values, interests and perspectives of local populations. Limitations of the report include a lack of specificity in general, and the use of many specific country settings, as observations and examples for one HMO dimension may not always be transferable to other regions and healthcare situations. Therefore, this report is not meant to provide concrete conclusions or solutions in regard to the implementation of an HMO in a specific country setting. In conclusion, this report states that HMOs have the potential to play a substantial role in healthcare system strengthening, provision of quality healthcare services and the preven-tion of financial burden due to ill-health. As a result, an HMO can support West African countries in their role to fulfil their obligation of protecting the health of their citizens. Addi-tionally, the authors strongly believe that an HMO must reflect the cultural, societal and political environment in which it is implemented. Therefore, it is essential that research be conducted prior to its implementation in addition to including the relevant local stakeholders as early as possible in the process

An investigation into the effects of commencing haemodialysis in the critically ill

<b>Introduction:</b> We have aimed to describe haemodynamic changes when haemodialysis is instituted in the critically ill. 3 hypotheses are tested: 1)The initial session is associated with cardiovascular instability, 2)The initial session is associated with more cardiovascular instability compared to subsequent sessions, and 3)Looking at unstable sessions alone, there will be a greater proportion of potentially harmful changes in the initial sessions compared to subsequent ones. <b>Methods:</b> Data was collected for 209 patients, identifying 1605 dialysis sessions. Analysis was performed on hourly records, classifying sessions as stable/unstable by a cutoff of >+/-20% change in baseline physiology (HR/MAP). Data from 3 hours prior, and 4 hours after dialysis was included, and average and minimum values derived. 3 time comparisons were made (pre-HD:during, during HD:post, pre-HD:post). Initial sessions were analysed separately from subsequent sessions to derive 2 groups. If a session was identified as being unstable, then the nature of instability was examined by recording whether changes crossed defined physiological ranges. The changes seen in unstable sessions could be described as to their effects: being harmful/potentially harmful, or beneficial/potentially beneficial. <b>Results:</b> Discarding incomplete data, 181 initial and 1382 subsequent sessions were analysed. A session was deemed to be stable if there was no significant change (>+/-20%) in the time-averaged or minimum MAP/HR across time comparisons. By this definition 85/181 initial sessions were unstable (47%, 95% CI SEM 39.8-54.2). Therefore Hypothesis 1 is accepted. This compares to 44% of subsequent sessions (95% CI 41.1-46.3). Comparing these proportions and their respective CI gives a 95% CI for the standard error of the difference of -4% to 10%. Therefore Hypothesis 2 is rejected. In initial sessions there were 92/1020 harmful changes. This gives a proportion of 9.0% (95% CI SEM 7.4-10.9). In the subsequent sessions there were 712/7248 harmful changes. This gives a proportion of 9.8% (95% CI SEM 9.1-10.5). Comparing the two unpaired proportions gives a difference of -0.08% with a 95% CI of the SE of the difference of -2.5 to +1.2. Hypothesis 3 is rejected. Fisher’s exact test gives a result of p=0.68, reinforcing the lack of significant variance. <b>Conclusions:</b> Our results reject the claims that using haemodialysis is an inherently unstable choice of therapy. Although proportionally more of the initial sessions are classed as unstable, the majority of MAP and HR changes are beneficial in nature

From social data mining to forecasting socio-economic crises

Abstract.: The purpose of this White Paper of the EU Support Action "Visioneer”(see www.visioneer.ethz.ch) is to address the following goals: 1. Develop strategies to quickly increase the objective knowledge about social and economic systems. 2. Describe requirements for efficient large-scale scientific data mining of anonymized social and economic data. 3. Formulate strategies how to collect stylized facts extracted from large data set. 4. Sketch ways how to successfully build up centers for computational social science. 5. Propose plans how to create centers for risk analysis and crisis forecasting. 6. Elaborate ethical standards regarding the storage, processing, evaluation, and publication of social and economic dat