Stuctured Predictions Cascades

Structured prediction tasks pose a fundamental trade off between the need for model complexity to increase predictive power and the limited computational resources for inference in the exponentially-sized output spaces such models require. We formulate and develop structured prediction cascades: a sequence of increasingly complex models that progressively filter the space of possible outputs. We represent an exponentially large set of filtered outputs using max marginals and propose a novel convex loss function that balances filtering error with filtering efficiency. We provide generalization bounds for these loss functions and evaluate our approach on handwriting recognition and part-of-speech tagging. We find that the learned cascades are capable of reducing the complexity of inference by up to five orders of magnitude, enabling the use of models which incorporate higher order features and yield higher accuracy

Discriminative Segmental Cascades for Feature-Rich Phone Recognition

Discriminative segmental models, such as segmental conditional random fields (SCRFs) and segmental structured support vector machines (SSVMs), have had success in speech recognition via both lattice rescoring and first-pass decoding. However, such models suffer from slow decoding, hampering the use of computationally expensive features, such as segment neural networks or other high-order features. A typical solution is to use approximate decoding, either by beam pruning in a single pass or by beam pruning to generate a lattice followed by a second pass. In this work, we study discriminative segmental models trained with a hinge loss (i.e., segmental structured SVMs). We show that beam search is not suitable for learning rescoring models in this approach, though it gives good approximate decoding performance when the model is already well-trained. Instead, we consider an approach inspired by structured prediction cascades, which use max-marginal pruning to generate lattices. We obtain a high-accuracy phonetic recognition system with several expensive feature types: a segment neural network, a second-order language model, and second-order phone boundary features

Learning Dynamic Feature Selection for Fast Sequential Prediction

We present paired learning and inference algorithms for significantly reducing computation and increasing speed of the vector dot products in the classifiers that are at the heart of many NLP components. This is accomplished by partitioning the features into a sequence of templates which are ordered such that high confidence can often be reached using only a small fraction of all features. Parameter estimation is arranged to maximize accuracy and early confidence in this sequence. Our approach is simpler and better suited to NLP than other related cascade methods. We present experiments in left-to-right part-of-speech tagging, named entity recognition, and transition-based dependency parsing. On the typical benchmarking datasets we can preserve POS tagging accuracy above 97% and parsing LAS above 88.5% both with over a five-fold reduction in run-time, and NER F1 above 88 with more than 2x increase in speed.Comment: Appears in The 53rd Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics, Beijing, China, July 201

Bethe Projections for Non-Local Inference

Many inference problems in structured prediction are naturally solved by augmenting a tractable dependency structure with complex, non-local auxiliary objectives. This includes the mean field family of variational inference algorithms, soft- or hard-constrained inference using Lagrangian relaxation or linear programming, collective graphical models, and forms of semi-supervised learning such as posterior regularization. We present a method to discriminatively learn broad families of inference objectives, capturing powerful non-local statistics of the latent variables, while maintaining tractable and provably fast inference using non-Euclidean projected gradient descent with a distance-generating function given by the Bethe entropy. We demonstrate the performance and flexibility of our method by (1) extracting structured citations from research papers by learning soft global constraints, (2) achieving state-of-the-art results on a widely-used handwriting recognition task using a novel learned non-convex inference procedure, and (3) providing a fast and highly scalable algorithm for the challenging problem of inference in a collective graphical model applied to bird migration.Comment: minor bug fix to appendix. appeared in UAI 201

Postmortem Analysis of Decayed Online Social Communities: Cascade Pattern Analysis and Prediction

Recently, many online social networks, such as MySpace, Orkut, and Friendster, have faced inactivity decay of their members, which contributed to the collapse of these networks. The reasons, mechanics, and prevention mechanisms of such inactivity decay are not fully understood. In this work, we analyze decayed and alive sub-websites from the StackExchange platform. The analysis mainly focuses on the inactivity cascades that occur among the members of these communities. We provide measures to understand the decay process and statistical analysis to extract the patterns that accompany the inactivity decay. Additionally, we predict cascade size and cascade virality using machine learning. The results of this work include a statistically significant difference of the decay patterns between the decayed and the alive sub-websites. These patterns are mainly: cascade size, cascade virality, cascade duration, and cascade similarity. Additionally, the contributed prediction framework showed satisfactory prediction results compared to a baseline predictor. Supported by empirical evidence, the main findings of this work are: (1) the decay process is not governed by only one network measure; it is better described using multiple measures; (2) the expert members of the StackExchange sub-websites were mainly responsible for the activity or inactivity of the StackExchange sub-websites; (3) the Statistics sub-website is going through decay dynamics that may lead to it becoming fully-decayed; and (4) decayed sub-websites were originally less resilient to inactivity decay, unlike the alive sub-websites

Enabling More Accurate and Efficient Structured Prediction

Machine learning practitioners often face a fundamental trade-off between expressiveness and computation time: on average, more accurate, expressive models tend to be more computationally intensive both at training and test time. While this trade-off is always applicable, it is acutely present in the setting of structured prediction, where the joint prediction of multiple output variables often creates two primary, inter-related bottlenecks: inference and feature computation time. In this thesis, we address this trade-off at test-time by presenting frameworks that enable more accurate and efficient structured prediction by addressing each of the bottlenecks specifically. First, we develop a framework based on a cascade of models, where the goal is to control test-time complexity even as features are added that increase inference time (even exponentially). We call this framework Structured Prediction Cascades (SPC); we develop SPC in the context of exact inference and then extend the framework to handle the approximate case. Next, we develop a framework for the setting where the feature computation is explicitly the bottleneck, in which we learn to selectively evaluate features within an instance of the mode. This second framework is referred to as Dynamic Structured Model Selection (DMS), and is once again developed for a simpler, restricted model before being extended to handle a much more complex setting. For both cases, we evaluate our methods on several benchmark datasets, and we find that it is possible to dramatically improve the efficiency and accuracy of structured prediction

From Micro to Macro: Uncovering and Predicting Information Cascading Process with Behavioral Dynamics

Cascades are ubiquitous in various network environments. How to predict these cascades is highly nontrivial in several vital applications, such as viral marketing, epidemic prevention and traffic management. Most previous works mainly focus on predicting the final cascade sizes. As cascades are typical dynamic processes, it is always interesting and important to predict the cascade size at any time, or predict the time when a cascade will reach a certain size (e.g. an threshold for outbreak). In this paper, we unify all these tasks into a fundamental problem: cascading process prediction. That is, given the early stage of a cascade, how to predict its cumulative cascade size of any later time? For such a challenging problem, how to understand the micro mechanism that drives and generates the macro phenomenons (i.e. cascading proceese) is essential. Here we introduce behavioral dynamics as the micro mechanism to describe the dynamic process of a node's neighbors get infected by a cascade after this node get infected (i.e. one-hop subcascades). Through data-driven analysis, we find out the common principles and patterns lying in behavioral dynamics and propose a novel Networked Weibull Regression model for behavioral dynamics modeling. After that we propose a novel method for predicting cascading processes by effectively aggregating behavioral dynamics, and propose a scalable solution to approximate the cascading process with a theoretical guarantee. We extensively evaluate the proposed method on a large scale social network dataset. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can significantly outperform other state-of-the-art baselines in multiple tasks including cascade size prediction, outbreak time prediction and cascading process prediction.Comment: 10 pages, 11 figure